Wave analysis fan club - page 28
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Went down lower, on m5:
Key target of the first sub-wave of the 3rd wave (see previous screenshot) 1.47.
Commerzbank technical analysts note that the single currency rose against the US dollar last week, breaking through key resistance at 1.4535 (1995 high).
From their point of view, the outlook for the Euro in the medium term has become positive. Specialists believe that the EUR/USD pair is now moving towards 1.5145/50.
Hi Misha!
What does the VA show in the short term?
Hello, Rita!
I personally do not have any variants of exchange rate growth. I skated and tossed and did whatever I did but no growth, I don't see it, but in fact the rate is growing...)). Today I was in the "circle of wave drivers" and the guy presented his version and argued it quite convincingly and logically. This variant without any details was shown in the screenshot. The logic goes like this. There is a development of the final 5 waves. It, the wave, should end in the range of 1.47...- 1.48 ... The growth, should stop, and a big decline should start, like a 3-wave. If it does not happen, which is the last line of defence that can be at least somehow reasoned and understood. It will turn out that Mater-Prechter is wrong, and Mater-Vozny will be right, as he says, that there is a growth trend going on, and it will last for a long time. That's it, short and sweet.
I'll be in touch a little later, I just don't have the time right now.
The targets are "murky".
Analysts say the central bank will make an announcement that the $600 billion asset purchase programme will be completed by the end of June, as previously planned. The interest rate is also expected to be kept at around zero for "an extended period of time".
The monetary policy decision will be released tomorrow, Wednesday, at 8.30pm Moscow time.
Following the announcement of the decision, Fed chief Ben Bernanke will speak for the first time at a press conference, which starts at 10.15pm Moscow time and lasts about 45 minutes. Bernanke is expected to give a short speech and then answer questions.
I wonder how this is going to end after all:
The federal budget deficit has approached 10% of GDP, which further exacerbates the need for a significant tightening of monetary policy. The total debt is even more important than the annual deficit figure and in this respect America is in a very difficult position indeed, as the total debt is around $75,000 billion, five times the annual GDP.The financial wars in the US are accompanied by illusions and outright lies, and no one dares to voice louder figures. Almost all American politicians and pundits say that sovereign debt is 59% of national income, and no one pronounces 500%.
.....
The S&P has told the markets nothing new about the country's financial situation.
Many of the comments that followed not only carried notes of surprise, but also contained earlier speculation that S&P would make the decision. After all, the budget deficit has been out of control for years.
This event took place on 18 April. Congress was dissolved to celebrate Easter, so there were no immediate protests and no press conference. Nevertheless, the agency chose this date rather favourably for the government. And the statement itself was exceptionally bland. The agency did not mention that the Obama administration had increased federal spending by more than 30% in two years.
Moreover, it appeared that Timothy Geithner knew about the decision in advance. Last Sunday, the day before the S&P announcement, the Treasury Department gave numerous interviews on the bold steps taken by the Obama administration to reduce the budget deficit. This allowed the government to be, as PR people put it, "ahead of the news".
In response to the agency's statement, Geithner said there was no chance of the negative outlook from S&P materialising into an actual downgrade. The likelihoodof the Titanic's demise was also zero at the time...
Actually, I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that a new wave of crisis is brewing in the USA...
The US macroeconomic indicators, with positive results, are false (fictitious)...I myself was calculating and couldn't understand where, out of the blue, "such beauty" in the indicators formed.... Before, they were at least adjusted, revised, but now all significant macroeconomic indicators look implausible...
Trichet, in an interview with two Finnish publications, said that he sees no significant secondary signs of inflation, leading investors to close long euro positions, even though many believe that the dollar will continue to remain under pressure in light of the Fed's monetary policy outlook, which will probably not rush to raise interest rates yet.
....
"The G7 communiqué immediately after the dollar index fell to a record low in March 2008 said the G7 countries were concerned about currency movements. The US does not necessarily want a cheap dollar against the euro or the yen. Their target is China. So I wouldn't be surprised if there are moves of an international nature in the market (to curb the fall of the dollar," the expert added.
....
...The US currency will continue to remain on the outs, given the fact that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to roll back its ultra-loose monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its main refinancing rate in the 0-0.25% range at Wednesday's meeting, while sticking to its quantitative easing plan to complete its $600bn bond-buying programme in June.
The main focus, however, will be on the speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke - the first scheduled speech by a central bank governor after a meeting in the Fed's 97-year history.
Scotia Capital currency strategists say the Fed chief has potentially something to say to give a positive boost to the U.S. currency. From their point of view, we should pay attention to the central bank's forecasts, especially on inflation.
Nevertheless, experts do not think that the Fed can move away from its overly soft monetary policy, especially given the abundance of peace-loving comments from the central bank's leadership over the past few weeks.
According to Scotia Capital, interest rates in the United States will remain at record lows between 0% and 0.25% through the first quarter of 2012. Economists expect the US currency to fall to $1.50 per euro.
No real reason for the eu to fall yet....
Possible pullback and further growth...