Doubling your deposit with martingale in three days - a reality? - page 5
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In general, doubling a deposit in three days is a simple matter, but doubling it in three months will be more difficult :)
Questions to Yury V:
- What is the loss/profit ratio shown on history?
- What is the maximal number of losing trades in a row obtained on the history (during the testing period)? (e.g. 2 or 4 consecutive losing trades).
- Have you tried to shift the Limit order, for example 10-20 pips away from your optimum and watch the increase of successive stops? It is clear that it increases, but by how many in a row?
The answers to these questions will help predict the future of the strategy being tested. And then it will be interesting to compare the predictions with practical results.
Otherwise this whole branch will consist of questions about its necessity :)
All these questions must be answered by monitoring - all characteristics of the account + charts are given there. But it was switched off at night for reasons unknown to me. Is it possible that when scanning the account it failed to reach the server? I have now turned it on manually.
The account scanning in the monitoring does not happen immediately, but at intervals of a few hours. Therefore it is better to wait. Besides, some amount of deals will be accumulated during this time to be able to draw some conclusions.
Now on the website I have added a display of the depo growth in % on the current Equity. The information is updated at the opening of any trade.
-86p and Percentage increase in deposit at current Equity : 13.07000000%
Show volumes
Before the monitoring starts, I am posting the detailed stats in the attached file.
All these questions should have been answered by monitoring - it gives all the characteristics of the account + graphs. But it, for reasons unknown to me, was switched off during the night. Is it possible that when scanning the account it failed to reach the server? I have turned it on now manually.
But you have been optimising, so there is a history of virtual transactions and most likely over several years. That is the history I was referring to. The questions you ask can't seem to damage trade secrets, so don't hide it. Or have you not done any such research?
But you have been optimising, so there is a history of virtual transactions and most likely over several years. That is the history I was referring to. The questions you ask can't seem to damage trade secrets, so don't hide it. Or you have not done such research?
>> Optimization and forward testing, Expert Advisor tuning and writing into terminal template is done by my ARM. All testing is performed with constant lot. Forwards are selected as the most suitable candidate whose balance curve is the most linear, i.e. Z-score distribution of profitable and loss-making trades is as even as possible throughout the testing area on OOS.
.... So the entry system does not take into account the "formula" of the market.
Do you know the formula?
Optimization and forward testing, EA configuration, and adding them to a terminal template is done by my EA. All this is done with a constant lot. Forwards are selected as the most suitable candidate whose balance curve is the most linear, i.e. Z-score distribution of profitable and losing trades is as even as possible within the whole testing area on OOS.
I'm not your adviser, but I think that's a very superficial approach. When martingale, it is very important to know at least the historical maximum number of consecutive losses, otherwise how do you calculate the necessary amount of deposit to keep the trade? For example, the historical maximum number of consecutive losing losses is 5. For example, each loss by 30 pips and profit +30 pips (for simplicity). What we get. On the first losing deal we lose 30 points, then we double (i.e. on the next deal we don't want to make profit, but only want to win back a loss). On the second deal we lose 60 points more, so we lost 90 points and lose them. We lose 90 more, total 180, lose another 180 (total -360), we lose 12, lose 360 more, total 720. And on the sixth deal we make a 24-fold bet and... ...we win! We win back to zero!
Thus, it turns out we need to be able to lose 720 pips and still be able to stop at -29 pips on the 6th trade with 24 contracts - this is another cushion of 6960 quid (using mini-lots: one pip = one dollar). Total required funds in the mini account should be 6960+720 = 7680 USD.
But this is not enough. I would also check sensitivity of the number of consecutive losing trades to Take Profit parameter. I.e. it is clear that the further we set the take profit, the less probable (frequency) it will trigger, which means more situations of increasing the number of consecutive minuses. Suppose we have an optimum - take profit of 30 pips. Let us set TakeProfit at 40 pips - i.e. let us move it away. Sometimes it happens so that we obtain "bunches" with 8 consecutive losing bars instead of 5. In the real situation it is clear, that we will not move anything from the optimum, but such a sensitivity check indicates the potential of what can happen in the future and what hasn't happened in the past. It turns out that ? We should be ready that though in the history the beam size is no more than 5, it can increase in the future in the real world, even if not to 8, but to 6-7 for sure. This should be taken into account - we need safety margin. It means that we need to calculate the deposit taking into account the bundle of consecutive drawdowns = 7. So calculate the size of the deposit.
That is why it turns out that if on our history, for example, we have no more than two consecutive losing losses, and the average profit is larger than the average loss - then we will be rich, and soon we will live on an island with a bunch of naked females. And on the other hand, if the average stop is twice as big as the average profit (or even just larger by 20%), and there are multiple positions with 5-7 consecutive Losses on the history, and besides sensitivity check shows a strong increase by the size of the maximum amount of consecutive Losses. Can you imagine what an estimated deposit size we would need to cover our losses?
There is one more estimate. Let's assume that we are ready for all this. We have made a considerable deposit. Calculate the percentage yield relative to this large deposit. I got it at the level of a medium-sized mutual fund. But I had deposited the money and was praying that no crisis would happen :) If I trade with my own hands - what risks are they (after all, we all know that any statistic from the past - this is a fork in the water guarantees) and we all know that the risk of losing the account is always there, the question is whether before it happened we had time to repay it on previous gains.
So, do not think that I'm for or against. I just think that if we are going to start biting the martingale theme we should go deeper into details.
Doesn't anybody take that into consideration?
>> with that in mind, it's working so far...
not a grail, but it works for me.
Doesn't anyone take this into account?
With all this in mind, it's working steadily so far ...
It's not a grail, but it works for me...
I got the impression from Yuri's post that it's not. I asked him these questions, look. He didn't answer them directly, so he didn't pay attention to it.
And your chart is beautiful, I like it. Although it doesn't show that he's using martingale at all.... Martingale charts are very specific, you can tell right away. What is your maximum multiplicity of builds?