"The 'perfect' trading system - page 58
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In fact, that's what I wrote above:
"The Adaptive EA deals with computer codes. Where they come from and where they go, of course, it cannot know.
General Trading Theory (GTT) is also completely abstracted from the nature of price origination."
Where the price comes from, we do not know this reliably, hence the "nature of the price" can only be "calculated" by its "traces" - the "sunshine" that we have on our monitor screen in the form of a price chart.
Very similar to the truth with one caveat : General Trading Theory seems to have abstracted from trading.
What you are trying to do is to manage refinancing, but refinancing is a profit maximizing tool
not a trading system.
If it were like you are trying to do, the market moves would depend on your deposit, and that is nonsense.
Very similar to the truth with one caveat: General Trading Theory seems to have abstracted from trading.
What you are trying to do is to manage refinancing, but refinancing is a profit maximizing tool
not a trading system.
If it were like you are trying to do, then market moves would depend on your deposit, which is nonsense.
You misunderstand OTT :)
Market movements do not need to depend on my deposit - they just need to move.
For example, let's say the market is a goods train. If I jump on it, the train won't feel me at all.
However, how can I jump on it when it is in motion? The train moves on its own, and I move on my own.
All I have to do is accelerate to the speed of the train (synchronize) and jump onto it.
Obviously, this is impossible at high train speeds - I won't be able to catch up with it.
But it is possible in some range of train speeds.
During the optimization phase, we "accelerate" the SF to train speed, and in real time, we will "hop on" or "jump off" it until the train is outside the speed range allowed for the SF.
You misunderstand OTT :)
Market movements do not need to depend on my deposit - they just need to move.
For example, let's say the market is a goods train. If I jump on it, the train won't feel me at all.
However, how can I jump on it when it is in motion? The train moves on its own, and I move on my own.
All I have to do is accelerate to the speed of the train (synchronize) and jump onto it.
Obviously, this is impossible at high train speeds - I won't be able to catch up with it.
But it is possible in some range of train speeds.
At optimization stage we "speed up" SF to train speed and in real time we will "hop on" or "jump off" it until the train goes out of speed range allowed for SF.
First remark: if you try to jump on the train with your eyes closed you will be very disappointed.
If you jump in the opposite direction from the movement (those you still need to predict the direction and hence there is no getting away from price processing).
Second: even if you check on virtual trades to see which method set is more adequate now, what guarantee is there that it will show the same best result in the near future?
that in the near future it will also show the best result?
First note: if you try to jump on the train with your eyes closed, you will be very disappointed.
If you jump in the opposite direction from the movement (you still need to predict the direction, which means you can't get away from price processing).
Second: even if you check on virtual trades to see which method set is more appropriate now, we have no guarantee that in the near future it will show the same results.
that in the near future it will show the same best result?
1. like it or not, but everyone has to jump with his eyes closed - there is no price to the right of the monitor - we cannot see it at all.
In case of an error, there is a stop loss.
And do not forget that SF is still a function, i.e. it is chosen beforehand to be maximum suitable for TF.
Let's say two similar trains, running on close rails, and we are jumping from one train to the other.
2. There is no guarantee.
See How do you prevent possible losses?
You can only spot it in time - if you are lucky, the NF will become more and more out of sync with the PF.
We have conducted gigantic tests - the desynchronisation comes relatively slowly (the FR does not change too abruptly, but gradually) and there is time to stop trading in time, wait and restart after over-optimisation.
1. like it or not, everyone has to jump with their eyes closed - there is no price to the right of the monitor - there is no way we can see it.
There is a stop loss in case of an error.
And do not forget that SF is still a function, i.e. it is chosen beforehand to be maximum suitable for TF.
Let's say two similar trains, travelling on close tracks, and we are jumping from one train to the other.
2. There is no guarantee.
See How do you prevent possible losses?
You can only notice in time - if you are lucky, the SF will become more and more out of sync with the PF.
We've made gigantic tests - desynchronization comes rather slowly (FR changes not too abruptly, but gradually) and we have time to stop trading in time, wait and restart after reoptimization.
So maybe it would be better to follow the misalignment based on quotes and plan trading based on quotes instead of past trades?
Have you ever thought about it? I give you my idea as a gift and promise not to ask for compensation for using it.
(Yes, there are altruists, not all of them have been killed by the wild capitalism :o)
We have done gigantic volume tests - the desynchronisation comes relatively slowly (FR does not change too drastically, but gradually) and there is time to stop trading in time, wait and restart after over-optimisation.
What is FR?
Give its quantified definition which you took in the "gigantic in volume tests". Well how can you discuss something without having its normal definition - aimed not at blondes but at people with a technical background!
So maybe it would be better to track the desynchronization and plan trading based on quotes instead of relying on past trades?
If you have not thought about it, consider this, I give you an idea and promise not to ask for compensation for using it.
(Yes, there are altruists, not all of them have been killed by the wild capitalism :o)
What do you mean better?
If you add quote analysis to the adaptive EA example, it will drastically complicate the code.
No one understands it as it is, and here we have additional analysis :)
The functionality of the OTT example in the adaptive EA is minimally sufficient to make profit with it.
What is a FR?
Give it a quantification of what you took in the "gigantic volume tests". Well how can you discuss something without having its normal definition - aimed not at blondes but at people with a technical background!
A market function (FM) is a price series.
Tests respectively on currencies, futures, equities, Russian and US.
Everywhere the results are roughly similar/analogous - the desynchronisation process is quite slow.
For an example, see. 25.05.2009, 14:05 30_GBPUSD
Here's its current equity - works as it did.
A market function (MF) is a price series.
Judging from your recent statement about "giant tests", this means that the price range "does not change too dramatically, but gradually". I am yet to understand this. What does it mean? What is the function of the price of the instrument "changing not too sharply but gradually"?
Judging by your recent statement about "giant tests", this means that the price series "changes not too abruptly, but gradually". I am yet to understand this. What does it mean? What is the function of the price of an instrument "changing not too sharply but gradually"?
I gave a picture above:
If the NF is selected in such a way that at points of intersection with the PR, a position is opened and then closed with the required profit, then this process happens long enough to have time to earn on it.
Gradually, desynchronization begins - open positions do not reach specified targets, i.e., FR changes so much that NF ceases to match it.
In other words, the function consisting of points of intersection of SF with FR + intervals from points of position opening to points of position closing changes slowly enough.