Testing real-time forecasting systems - page 86
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You have to watch as you go.
Better yet, you'll have to sleep on the fence for a while.
;)
Ну да, интуиция говорит, что вероятность встретить аллозавра в реале равна 0.5 - либо встретим, либо нет.
:о) Old joke, but perfectly captures the whole "probabilistic meaning" of probability :o)
Good to see in the new year! Happy New Year! How are you?
avatara wrote >>
I'll have to watch as you go.
Or better on the fence for a while.
;)
Well yes, that's right, it's not that simple. Especially as it seems - sure went up :o( which means my prediction can be printed on soft paper and put to good use :o)
Таки продолжим. EURUSD, M15
........................
Greetings Sergey.
Happy holidays past and coming!
Glad to see you're back, the last predictions from you were oh so long ago.
Best of luck to you!
Приветствую Сергей.
С праздниками прошедшими и наступающими!
Greetings Konstantin, congratulations :o)
Glad to have you back, the last predictions from you were oh so long ago.
Been working and improving the system, but I think I overdid it a bit.
I wish you good luck!
Thanks, similarly good luck. Realising more and more and more what the quoting process is really like - luck becomes essential in many ways :o)))))
Приветствую Константин! Принимай и мои поздравления :о)
Работал, совершенствовал систему, но кажется, немного перестарался.
Спасибо, аналогично - удачи. Осознавая все больше, больше и больше, что из себя на самом деле представляет котировочный процесс - удача становится во многом необходима :о)))))
Oh, you don't say.
The market is so thin now, they can do what they want.
I myself navigate like a barge through a minefield in a storm.
Fortunately my brain has become much more flexible in the past year and I do not fall into a stupor... ))
Thank you. Happy New Year to you too. Oh, and Merry Christmas. Well, you can make up your own wishes.
And myself, well... I hope I get to be at least a pathetic shadow of you in this thread soon after all.
Konstantin, hello to you too!
Спасибо, тебя тоже с наступившим! А, еще с наступающим Рождеством! Ну там чего желать - сам себе придумай.
А сам - ну как... надеюсь, что у меня все-таки скоро получится стать хотя бы твоей жалкой тенью в этой ветке.
Константин, и тебе тоже привет!
Hello, Alexei.
Our conversations have become very infrequent.
Maybe you (old timers) have some other place to hang out?
Write. You are always welcome. Happy Holidays!
Good luck in all your good deeds!
Спасибо, тебя тоже с наступившим! А, еще с наступающим Рождеством! Ну там чего желать - сам себе придумай.
А сам - ну как... надеюсь, что у меня все-таки скоро получится стать хотя бы твоей жалкой тенью в этой ветке.
Константин, и тебе тоже привет!
Thank you, when it came to me I already wished for one, and that "already" turned out to be a microscope. A dream... No, not an idiot's, - but a dream from my childhood. And will still want a new laptop, because the old wife poured shahpanskoe (S), a glass an hour before the New Year. So, here goes. :о)
Well you say shadow! Don't be self-deprecating, I know - you have how and what to predict, and my current prediction is just a circus :o) Where I messed up there - there's a whole sheet with the system in Matkad already. Or maybe it's not the system, but the champagne bubbling in my laptop :o)
PS: By the way, I have an idea, but I can't get my hands on it, the model consists of two processes - Bernoulli distribution, and the second one has lognormal (at a guess). The superposition of these monsters would theoretically yield a quotable process, and theoretically - quite accurately, and all together, it seems to me - can be predicted. Theoretically of course, and then hardly theoretically :o)
Es-s-s-s-s
I did figure out how to build a "correct" probability shift vector field. That's what it means to have some free time (the first example, ... I don't even need to comment on it, the main thing is that I can conceptually see what can be shifted):
And also, I think I found what I was looking for so long - waves of probability, and this term even without quotes, is the very nature, the very essence of the process. In the picture - just captured such a wave transposed from phase space. Really - there are a lot of them...
PS: yo-yo-yo-yo-yo-yo, what time it is, went to bed.
Okay, I smell wave mechanics. De Broglie waves, yeah, and the Schrodinger equation is just around the corner...
Well, if I'd heard it from someone else, I'd just chuckle. But I'm hearing it from you, grasn.