A draining trend of the Championship. - page 3
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After today's strong movement on Forex, for the first time 11-thousanders have taken 8 lines at the bottom of the 1st page of the Championship table! It means that the number of Expert Advisors with balance over 12 000 has decreased to 17. I should also note that today for the first time ever EA sashken "tested" 27000 USD - HUMPHY for him!
True, we must pay tribute, the "Unstarted" (with $10,000) never made it to page 3 of the table. That is, despite the overall decrease in balance of the Championship leaders, occupying the first 3 pages with a positive balance, their number has not decreased.
But the same cannot be said about "bottom" of the table where many EAs are moving with enviable persistence...
Thanks for the congratulations!
News on the Pound coming out today, let's see what happens.
Looking forward to it...
The Championship table pages have not changed much during this week:
Despite the continued trend of overall plummeting, it is not a collapsing one at that. It can even be described as moderate and, undoubtedly, characterizes general trading performed by the Expert Advisors asCautious without being too risky.
The ratio of EXPERTS with positive balance to the Experts with negative balance also remained almost unchanged ("+"/"0"/"-"): 77/14/167.
The Expert Advisors' stability is confirmed by the stability of the Championship Leaders: 7 of 10 leaders of the first week have reached the second week, and 6 - the third one. 8 of 10 Expert Advisors of the second week reached the third one.
General results of the three weeks of Experts' work:
1. Having occupied their places in the Championship table, the Expert Advisors have generally adhered to them.
No strong "migration" of the Expert Advisors across the table is observed. Leaders are confidently holding their positions. Insiders are still losing their deposits.
2. There will be winners of the Championship, and they will not be accidental. Don't look for the winners among the Expert Advisors with a negative balance at the moment.
Bloody hell! My councillor was second from the end for a long time and I thought he would soon be the leader, but then some German took the lead! Now I'm back in 3rd place :)
In fact, yesterday or the day before yesterday he managed to be the leader from the end for a few hours. I didn't take a screenshot, though, and can't confirm it with anything.
Rosh it's going down very nicely - suspiciously))
i read Lefebvre interesting - i feel safer when others are losing millions.
it looks like you have decided to organise it in your EA))))
Bloody hell! My councillor was second from the end for a long time and I thought he would soon be the leader, but then some German took the lead! Now I'm back in 3rd place :)
and again in second place - all is not lost yet
will Antelider get the Anti-Prize? :)
that do not trade by random luck or bad luck, but actually implement a profitable trading strategy
?
Since the number of Expert Advisors is rather large, about two and a half hundreds, it allows us to apply
statistical methods of researching this issue.
For this purpose one can compare returns of all Championship Expert Advisors with returns of experts trading at random
, i.e. opening positions at randomly selected time and in a randomly selected direction and closing them in the same way
. With a big enough amount of deals the total balance of such a system of Expert Advisors will
decrease as the number of deals multiplied by spread.
Accordingly, if among such Expert Advisors participating in the Championship there are at least some of them, whose positive profitability appears not because of luck, but because of the trading strategy, then the total loss of all Expert Advisors will
increase slower than in the system of random trading experts. And vice versa, if the total loss increases
faster than in case of random trading, it means that there are such Championship Expert Advisors whose profitability
is negative not because of bad luck, but due to implementation of some regularities.
If we follow the results of the third week of the Championship given by Michel_S, we have the following data:
<Total trade loss of all 258 Expert Advisors: $31882>
. It is rather slow to precisely calculate the total spread for all positions of the Championship. It can be roughly estimated at
assuming that the average amount of deals per participant during three weeks is 3-4 with the average deal volume - probably
about 4 lots. Then the total spread loss is $40*4*258*(3-4)=($120-170 000). We can see that the real
loss is much larger that can hardly be explained by a random fluctuation.
Conclusion: There are some Expert Advisors represented in the Championship, whose trading strategy has a good
regularity resulting in a non-random negative profitability. Now we just need to find such Expert Advisors, change
trades/indicators to reverse them and we will get good Expert Advisors. :)
>>>transactions/indicators to reverse and you will get very good experts.:)
In fact, this has already been discussed on the forums somewhere, only to come to the conclusion that it won't work.
We will try to publish it on Saturday or Monday.
As all the statistics are accumulated, we will try to publish maximum variety of reports by the end of the Championship. If you want to help, please suggest research topics. Preferably with a plan of questions and a formulated test purpose. All types of reports, including server logs, will be used for investigations.
As for the subject - is there any of the experts participating in the championship, at least some
The question arises: are there any experts participating in the championship at least some of them trading not by random luck or bad luck, but actually implementing a profitable trading strategy?
strategy?
Any trade, even with a strategy built into it, is still a fluke. It's like a brick falling on your head. Philosophers in their practice give the example of a brick to students in an exam. Is a brick falling on your head an accident or a pattern?
I think that expert writers with experience have all gone the same way. I've written about this Rosh I wrote in some threads that novices should make their own mistakes if someone has already made them before.
In my opinion, this rake consists of:
Stage 1. The attempt to find someone else's Expert Advisor and optimize it on its own way, thinking that it is not unprofitable Expert Advisor, but in his "wrong" optimization.
Stage 2. Redesign of the alien Expert, correcting the "defects" that its creator made when writing it. The thought that the "sucker" did not notice the "elementary".
Stage 3. The process of writing your own Expert Advisor and at the same time, a search for a miracle indicator or a set of indicators. The idea that everyone who had written earlier just used the wrong combination of indicators, with the wrong parameters or in the wrong sequence. The sequence of signals of that "solely correct" combination of indicators that the Expert Advisor had found earlier just couldn't be seen by others due to their ignorance.
The 4th stage. The denial of all of the indicators as such, because trading is a random and spontaneous process. The truth of successful trading lies in nibbling pips, pipsips, pips and other small pieces of happiness. The idea that the purpose of automated trading is to trade 24 hours a day, with a large number of deals, but with minimal profit. Make money by quantity, not by quality. Take your own on a gross profit.
Stage 5. Writing Expert Advisors for others.
The sequence of stages may be different. The sequence of stages may be different. But the bottom line is still that Forex trading must be approached as a spontaneous market. This means that the statistical method of trading - like money management - should be in the first place. Which way you trade is not that important. You can even enter the market by flipping a coin - the probability level of a correct market entry will be very close to the statistics of successful entry guessing even by the wisest Expert Advisor.