The oil issue ... - page 47
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On the daily tamframe (global medium-term trend, so to speak), an interesting situation arose: the 'breakdown' line of the Chinkou Span (green on the left in the chart) came very close to the price (from below to above - that is from behind) and at a good angle, which allows us to consider an upward break of the price movement with a possible reversal into the primary uptrend - provided
then we can already speak about the beginning of a global reversal of the price movement into a primary uptrend, which will end with the price breaking through the level of 45.70.
In other words, they should budget $39 instead of $50.
And the ruble has not yet won back this oil situation - on the H4 timeframe the downside breakout has just started (oil has already won back its 'first half' and started its 'temporary breather'), but on the daily chart it is still a 'work in progress':
I wonder if they will let the ruble strengthen to 65.65, or not ...
It is unlikely, in Russia the exchange rate rarely goes in the opposite direction...
The Ministry of Finance sees that people do not panic and have eaten the high exchange rate, according to this in the "miracle case" of a return to $100 per barrel the exchange rate will remain the same, at this rate the budget will receive 7000-8000 rubles for which you can start new five-year projects.
Theoretically this is correct, in the course of 1-5 years inflation and the market will equalise wages and prices according to the current exchange rate. That is, the rouble will simply depreciate again. A litre of petrol 95 now costs 35 in 1-5 years will cost 70 ....
So I don't believe in exchange rate reduction .... In the short term maybe yes, but in the long term not ....
The price (on the daily chart) breaks the resistance level of 35.56 (still on the open daily bar) from below to continue the rally and the Chinkou Span line breaks the price from below to above (also still on the open bar) for a possible start of an upside breakout. An upside reversal could start if the daily price breaks the 38.93 level:
What you're weaving here:)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Just usdrub BUY
They must really have nowhere to put their money if they are investing in such production facilities and keeping them running.
In short - a lot of money is bad, too.
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An oil question ...
Vasyl Nosal, 2016.01.31 20:59
What are you weaving here:)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Just usdrub BUY
USD/RUB?
Correction now, if the price crosses 69.10 from the top down, that will be the start of a downward reversal. And if we wait a bit, that reversal level on the downtrend could be near 73 as well.
It's not about buy or sell on the chart. It's about whether they will or will not... Because if these prices (for oil and the dollar/ruble) would move on their own, there would be no problem... but we're just sitting here like "accountants", fixing and guessing whether they would or wouldn't let oil rise ... that's the question ...