The oil issue ... - page 43

[Sergey Golubev]

That's the way it's going to be:

[Alexandr Murzin]

I'm betting on "bottoms passed".

[Sergey Golubev]

I'm reading today's US article - they're predicting (on a four-hour chart) that oil could go back up to $31.75-$34.25, but then still go down. And in the middle of the article (in big letters) that 'All major oil producers (OPEC, non-OPEC - all of them) should sit down for talks to solve the oil oversupply issue by cutting production'.

I guess low prices are already ruining the shale firms out there if they publish such articles ...

[Дмитрий]

Sergey Golubev:
I'm reading today's US article - they're predicting (on a four-hour chart) that oil could go back up to $31.75-$34.25, but then still go down. And in the middle of the article (in big letters) that 'All major oil producers (OPEC, non-OPEC - all of them) should sit down for talks to solve the oil oversupply issue by cutting production'.

I guess low prices are already ruining the shale firms out there if they publish such articles ...

so are oil price dynamics determined by OPEC or by the dashes and lines on the four o'clock chart?

[Sergey Golubev]

OPEC has to move the dashes, and doesn't want to - waiting for all the shale firms in the US (OPEC competitors) to "die" because of the low oil price. This is probably why tech analysis analysts in the US make articles urging OPEC to reduce production to raise the oil price:

We and they have different depths of the bottom: we can fall and fall all the way down to the USSR and even lower (and there is life there too), while they cannot fall below capitalism. Therefore: what is 'death' for them is just trouble for us.

[Дмитрий]

Sergey Golubev:
That's probably why tech analysts in the US are doing articles calling on OPEC to cut production to raise the price of oil:

According to statistics, by the end of 2015 the US solar industry employed almost 210,000 people, while the oil industry employed about 180,000

Naked Science

http://naked-science.ru/article/hi-tech/chislo-rabochikh-mest-v-solnec

The US population is 318 million and the oil industry employs only 0.06% of the US population

.

[Дмитрий]

World Bank - a drop in oil prices of up to 30% promises 0.5% additional growth in world GDP.

[Sergey Golubev]

Here (already another article) about oil (albeit from Algeria's perspective).

[Vladimir Pastushak]

Sergey Golubev:
OPEC has to move the dashes, and doesn't want to - waiting for all the shale firms in the US (OPEC competitors) to "die" because of the low oil price. That's probably why tech analysts in the US are doing articles calling for OPEC to cut production to increase the price of oil:

We and they have different depths of the bottom: we can fall and fall all the way down to the USSR and even lower (and there is life there too), and they cannot fall below capitalism. Therefore: what is 'death' for them is just trouble for us.

OPEC is not OPEC, no matter what OPEC decides, as long as the gangsters sell oil at $5-15, OPEC can't help...

It is the availability of cheap oil in huge quantities that keeps the price at a low level, as soon as the cheap oil is cut off, the price will go up, the main thing is not to miss the moment...

[Sergey Golubev]

More on oil (from foreign articles).

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US.
There is such a fellow - Dennis Gartman, founder and editor of the Gartman Letter. He has been emphasizing since last summer that he was playing short (he held sell on oil for a long time), then he started giving an interview to CNBC that he thinks oil is close to hit the bottom. But, on the other hand, he thinks that oil will never go above $44 (he was interviewed yesterday - see here).

So, on the one hand, there is no point in playing oil down because it is already seen as a bottom - oil will go up in price. On the other hand, he does not see oil going above $44.

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China.
But - China increased its oil imports by 8.8% in 2015 (compared to last year 2014). In 2016, China's cephty imports are projected to increase by 4.6% (compared to 2015) - article here.

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That is my guess - the Americans do not foresee oil rising above 44 for the theoretically foreseeable future, and China is increasing oil imports despite its slowing economy.
Conclusion - we need (oil investors etc) to invest in China so that there is growth without a slowdown, and then there will be growth in oil as well (and then there will be growth everywhere).