Market theory - page 274
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1. I suggest staying within the bounds of correctness.
2. If you are an expert in matstatistics, make an argument.
3. I will find the book and point it out accurately.
the book is created by others who are as sick as we are. The main thing is to create one yourself. ))
Dear Yousufkhodja ! Do you have a trading system with formal rules, the results of which you can post ?
Mike, because this theory is still relatively young, the TS on its basis is still being tested in the MT4 tester. We check the results of theory's conclusions on the possibility to achieve a stat advantage in the market under relatively constrained initial conditions, such as TP=SL, the absence of any optimisable parameters other than the sample volume. A market price P is traded, the existence of which, along with the current price Ts, I have shown within this market theory. It is shown, and I will have to prove it, that forex quotes are formed from chunks (streams) of P and C prices which alternately replace each other as a result of market struggles with sellers and buyers. If P is currently Bulls, then CD takes the form of Bears and vice versa. The price flow of P forms the market, and Ts forms the market participants, because they can see it, observe it. P prices are not visible to anyone. Only my indicator calculates them and displays on the chart. In the test below it is postulated that if the market is ruled by Bulls - Buy, and if Bears - Sell. All orders are closed by default when the market reaches the top, irrespective of a profit or loss. Positions are also closed when stop-orders are reached, set in the settings, TP=SL=300 points (in particular for TF D1, Euro/Dollar). There are no other conditions or settings. From the below test results in the period from early 2009 to the present, it is clear that, the TS achieves a significant stat advantage over the market and the new market theory deserves, at least, to develop it (all ticks, fixed lot 0.01):
Bars in history 2073
Modelled ticks 27489572
Modeling quality n/a
Error of chart mismatch 5331933
Initial deposit 2000.00
Spread Current (2)
Net profit 11163.85
Total profit 28364.88
Total loss -17201.04
Profitability 1.65
Expected payoff 6.26
Absolute drawdown 7.89
Maximum drawdown 2674.27 (38.11%)
Relative drawdown 51.41% (2505.03)
Total trades 1782
Short positions (% win) 890 (59.66%)
Long positions (% win) 892 (59.19%)
Profitable trades (% of all) 1059 (59.43%)
Loss trades (% of all) 723 (40.57%)
Largest
profitable trade 30.63
Deal Deal -32.95 (% of all)
Average
26.78 Profit deal
losing deal -23.79
Maximum number
Continuous wins (profit) 83 (2502.99)
Continuous Losses (Loss) 58 (-1521.07)
Max.
Continuous Profit (number of wins) 2502.99 (83)
Continuous loss (number of losses) -1521.07 (58)
Average
continuous winning 14
Continuous loss 10
Erhard is a renowned mathematical scientist who researched markets. With my modest mathematical knowledge, books should be read, not written. :)
Listen - who was that great mathematician?
I've never even heard of him, I googled him -Erhard Schmidt, but he died back in 1959 and he was never involved in markets (and he lived in the GDR), and he wasn't even involved in matstatistics and theory. AndLudwig Erhard - but he was a practicing economist and didn't do markets either.
Who were you referring to?
Boris, well it's not correct to answer for the respected Yousufkhodja ... :)
Maybe you just haven't appreciated it yet ?
Again the cult of personality, unquestionable authority, respect for deeds, not dust in the eyes, air castles and soap bubbles! And a bit of modesty, not hat-trickery, the theorist of the trade...
There you go again, testy and not even a grail! What productivity!
For someone who knows the basics of matstatistics, the arguments of mathematician William Eckhardt are quite convincing.
P. 152, at the end about the mean, which many mistakenly call the mathematical expectation (ME).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Eckhardt_(trader)
Thank you for such detailed information. Allow me to ask a few questions:
1. At what spread was this tested ?
2. What time frame ?
3."When the board changes, all orders are closed forcibly" - how is the change of direction diagnosed ?
4. I don't see such a big drawdown on the chart ... if only at the very beginning ?
Book, pp. 145ff.
For a person who knows the basics of matstatistics, the arguments of mathematician William Eckhardtare quite convincing.
And where does it say that the price series has no MO? It says that the price series has infinite variance - everyone knew about the non-stationarity of the price series without it.
Where is the lack of MO?
And since when a man who does not have a minimum scientific title is a scientist-mathematician?
Again the cult of personality, unquestionable authority, respect for deeds, not dust in the eyes, air castles and soap bubbles! And a bit of modesty, not hat-trickery, the theorist of the trade...
There you go again, testy and not even a grail! What productivity!
Otherwise TS may be optimized by 30 parameters at once....
Such a TS should start to fail immediately on those data that were not included into the optimization sample.