Make your first million - page 188
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You did the right thing. Theorists like you ran our country in the 90s - we all know the result.
1. What do you mean the rate was raised for nothing? What was to be done with the speculative component of the exchange rate? In the morning the banks took a rouble loan and bought currency (by raising the exchange rate), then in the evening they sold the currency and repaid the loan. At the same time they earned good money during the day!!! This could have gone on and on, if the Central Bank had not raised the rate sharply and thereby knocked the ground out of the speculators! Removed the speculative component from the rate.
2. What do you mean by "hold the economy for a quarter at 100"? You are a far cry from what is going on in Russia at all! We have an ALL ECONOMY RELATED to the exchange rate. It is not like in western countries where the economy is tied to inflation. In our situation, an exchange rate of 100 for a quarter is the end of everything. The government cannot allow that to happen.
I understand exactly what the exchange rate is.
1. There are 100500 regulatory levers to force the bank not to buy currency for free or refo. Following your example, you introduce T+2 delivery and prohibit banks from deviating from currency positions. That's it and at a rate of 10, 90% of speculative buying would disappear. But why bother with a floating rate? All those who have a floating rate in the real sector to the morgue. Use your head...
2. Exchange rate imbalances are not cured by stabilizing the exchange rate at the "new level" but by currency interventions from outside the country. This is either the inflow of capital into financial instruments (stocks, bonds) or into the real sector (building facilities for sale abroad). Are goods from Russia in greater demand now than a year ago? Probably not, since the problem is not solved, but delayed. All One in One with Greece, when the imbalance is not corrected, but the hole is temporarily plugged with money. Only the clod gets bigger over time and the avalanche gets brighter.
The high interest rate is killing the economy which has been kept solely on credit demand for the last few years...
No question - everything is relative. You have to look at the situation in relation to a specific country. However, no one has abolished the laws of economics, so in our country everything is tied to inflation. Another thing is that it was profitable for someone to keep the exchange rate lower than it really is. And the real exchange rate, by all appearances, is just around 80-100r.
Who benefits. Whoever the electorate votes for. Real pensions have fallen by half compared to the neighbours. The fact that prices have not risen yet is a time lag until the pasta manufacturer reaches the trading networks of its neighbours. Ban exports, so he will close down and fire everyone.
The real exchange rate will be like this when investments from foreigners will go into the real sector.
Who benefits. Whoever the electorate votes for. Real pensions have fallen by half compared to the neighbours. The fact that prices have not risen yet is a time lag until the pasta manufacturer reaches the trading networks of its neighbours. Ban exports, so he will close down and fire everyone.
The real exchange rate will be when investments from foreigners will go into the real sector.
What are you smoking? Please slow down, I'm writing it down.
No matter how it sounds - that's right! It's hard to accept, but I guess we'll have to. But then again, there are many pitfalls. Just the other day I read an article on Forbes where a rather silly situation was described - under import substitution the biggest company in the country engaged in strawberry growing is prohibited to sell strawberries from the counters near the metro. As a result, tons of berries simply rot before reaching the consumer. And there are an unprecedented amount of such laws in our country, each of which is designed not to increase people's desire to create something, but rather to send everything to hell. Which is exactly what is being done
These are all details. The CIS is not the U.S. or the EU yet.
Exporters make money in such countries, when you are not assembling BMWs, but exporting them (or not), then we will be able to talk about returning the balance
We export oil, gas, VAZ and diamond.
We export oil, gas, VAZ and diamond.
FEDERAL CUSTOMS SERVICE
Commodity structure of EXPORTS December 2014, percentage
Foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials (except textile) 2.2
Mineral products 41.6
Fuel and energy products 41.0
Chemicals, rubber 3.5
Raw skins, fur and related products 0.0
Wood and paper products 1.4
Textiles,textile products and footwear 0.1
Precious stones,precious metals and articles thereof 1.4
Metals and products thereof 4.8
Machinery, equipment and vehicles 3.1
Other goods 0.8
And now let's have a look at what happened to the prices of major export items
Oil
Gas
Iron ore, steel has the same dynamics.
Coal
Overall, we see that prices have fallen by 50-70% in major destinations, compared with 2011.
That is, even if they will keep the volume of supply in tons (and it is not so, because physical supply is declining). The dollar revenues will fall considerably.
Are people ready to consume less? No!