How many pips does a profitable EA earn per day and a successful trader - page 11

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nowi:
100% OK, in case of an unprecedented force majeure, if prices stop moving altogether or volatility drops to an unprecedented low, then 99.999999%

it is correct to write in either direction. in both directions simultaneously: the probability of this is zero)
it is correct to write both ways for a given period of time, are you sure it's 99%?

it looks like a grail, does experience or probability theory tell you?
 
IvanIvanov:
what is the probability of the Aussie price moving in both directions by 10 four digits from 00 GMT ?

As an expert, I would expect you to give a detailed justification with figures

If you do it outright, it's something like this:

Probability one way = 0.5.

Probability the other way = 0.5.

Both ways = 0.5*0.5 = 0.25.

But we don't take into account market trends, currency pairs, spread size or volatility... None of the criteria influencing the required probability. That's why the result is purely statistical - p=0.25.

 
IvanIvanov:
it is correct to write both here and there for a given period of time, are you sure it's 99%?

sounds like a grail, does experience or probability theory tell you?
you didn't specify a time frame, and especially not that the price has to go both "there" and "there" in that time frame. you stated only the reference point: from 00 GMT and the probability that the price will go either up or down in 10 points. then yes I am sure: 99%!

in what I have described: it looks as much like a grail as an electric motor looks like an ice-cream cone.
 
However,elugovoy has answered the question of probabilities quite clearly and there is nothing to add...
although... the probability of going both ways = 0.25 is only true at a time interval (any). without specifying time intervals, i.e. infinity, both events would have probability = 1
 
nowi:
However,elugovoy answered the question of probabilities quite clearly and there is nothing to add...
although... probability of going both ways = 0.25 is true only in time interval (any). Without specifying time intervals, i.e. infinity, both events would have probability = 1

Well, if the market is closed, 0 :))

But what was the question, was the answer.

 
G001:

An anecdote:

A mathematician is asked: 'What is the probability that you will meet Napoleon when you go out now?

The mathematician looked up reference books, calculators, computers, locked himself in a room for three days and gave the answer: about 0.000001 per cent.

The same question was asked to an experienced trader. The answer was immediate: - 50/50, either you will or you won't.
The mathematician was wrong by one zero, so the probability is 0.0000001. As now the mathematician didn't go out, but locked himself away for three days to do the calculations. :)
 
A robot will never replace manual trading, using an EA is necessary to analyse the chart together with it
 
Joni4404:
A robot will never replace manual trading, using an EA you have to analyse the chart with it
Well! it depends on what kind of robot, a calculator and a computer, two robots. And the first one can't do what the second one can.
 
Joni4404:
A robot will never replace manual trading, using EAs you need to analyse the chart with it
I know which manual work will never replace a robot, but I won't tell you...)
 
nowi:
I know which manual work will never be replaced by a robot, but I won't tell...)
Say it. Let everyone know. )))
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