The future of automated trading - page 26

[Nikolai Karetnikov]

EvMir:

What about ALGO traders? Bots need to be written by someone, and bots can't come up with strategies for them either.

I agree that manual trading will die out because it is not competitive with bots. This situation is in general widespread now, take for example digital graphics, no manual single frame painting cannot be compared with high-level graphic CAD systems using operator. The same will be true for trading.

All the routine to the machine!

But stillonly humans can do the extra high-level and heuristic functions. It's great that trading is becoming a creative business, not a routine one based on discipline and performance, now everything depends on ingenuity and bots will do the hard work.

in general, the thread is originally about how much longer this 'for now' will last. Not quite sure what "high-level and heuristic" means in the context, but my - feeling is that people are starting to give up. Computer programs, they are almost our children. You never look at your programs with such, you know, admiration or something. Like, this is what I created. So these children are 3-4 years old now, they can already understand speech and can read, though they do not understand much of what they read. But they have better memory than their parents and they count in their mind without errors. And children go further than their parents :)

ps. And here's another pretty important reason why this process is unstoppable and robots will get better and better and will displace human traders. Robots don't need to pay a percentage of profit.

[Nikolai Karetnikov]

[11:47:36 AM] Arthur IV Wise: Anyway, the only thing that can drop the markets is the curtailment of the kue

[11:47:43 AM] Arthur IV Wise: They don't give a shit about anything else

[11:50:13 AM] nick.karetnikov: the quid is probably growing as it's getting close and the markets are rising as a sign they don't give a shit about a shutdown either

[11:51:05 AM] Arthur IV Wise: yesterday the americans showed how they don't give a fuck))

[11:51:15 AM] Arthur IV Wise: at one mention 10 points down in 5 minutes

[11:51:28 AM] nick.karetnikov: well that's a new word in robot trading

[11:51:39 AM] nick.karetnikov: robotics started analyzing news

[11:51:56 AM] Arthur IV the Wise: 7deck

[11:54:47 AM] nick.karetnikov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ccxac_Yz0w

[11:57:22 AM] nick.karetnikov: I think they are testing it on sipuh

[11:57:55 AM] nick.karetnikov: tweeted to AP about abama on purpose, no hackers n7u7 hacked

[11:58:51 AM] Arthur IV the Wise: yes they f7a7u7ed

[11:59:44 AM] nick.karetnikov: no, that's no longer reverse, for sure. This watson based 7ui7a isn't asking for money or sleep

[11:59:55 AM] nick.karetnikov: IBM should buy

[12:00:05 PM] nick.karetnikov: Although it's been like this since 2011

[12:00:46 PM] nick.karetnikov: it may as well analyze skype and somewhere store the information that someone wanted to buy ibm

[12:01:40 PM] nick.karetnikov: We're almost on the spit, there was a movie, kindrazza, where no one on the planet thought the truth, because everything you thought was known at once. So far, only what is said is known, but these guys are digging into the meaning as well.

This is how I see the new word in automated trading, it's not even the future, it has already happened

[Sceptic Philozoff]

ns_k: Robots don't have to pay a percentage of profits.

Yeah, right. Robots are created by humans, who are unlikely to give up that percentage.

A person spends a lot of time creating an algorithm.

When artificial intelligence becomes real intelligence and is capable of creating adaptive bots itself, then we can talk about the era of bots.

[Nikolai Karetnikov]

But once the algorithm is created, it already works without "recharging", then it will be optimised, as was the case with chess. From '97 to 2013, progress has advanced to the point where chess programmes on phones play at the level of international masters. The time is not far off when a smartphone will be smarter than its owner :)

[Vasiliy Sokolov]

ns_k:
... From '97 to 2013, progress has advanced to the point where chess software on phones is played at the level of international masters. The time is not far off when a smartphone will be smarter than its owner :)

Judging by the looks and vocabulary of some owners of such smartphones, that time has already come.

[Sceptic Philozoff]

ns_k: But when the algorithm is created, it already works without "recharging", then it will be optimised, as it was with chess.

I highly doubt that it is possible to create a trading bot algorithm that is profitable at all times.

[Sergey Golubev]

Only if on a monthly timeframe (MN1) :)

[Nikolai Karetnikov]

Mathemat:
I seriously doubt it is possible to create a trading bot algorithm that is profitable at all times.

Maybe a little off-topic, but still. Do you believe, for example, that there will be no referees on the pitch at football matches in, say, the next 10 years? The trend now is that there are more and more moments in sports where watching video replays is necessary. As far as I know, a robot is already capable of detecting drives off the field, goal takings and offsides. In the future it may be able to detect simple infringements, like tackling. A player has played the ball or an opponent. Right now, human inertia and fear even limit the implementation of such systems. What do I mean? I, for example, would not get on a train without a driver, in a car without a driver (like the one Google is currently developing, look it up on youtube) because I'm used to having a person behind the wheel. Besides, there are drivers, referees in sports, i.e. people who are not interested in having a machine in their place. But it's all temporary, last year there was an experiment at Ashan, somewhere in the third ring up, where cashiers were replaced by people who conduct pre-checking, weighing and packaging of goods without dealing with money matters at all. People had to pay for wrapped purchases themselves through a bunch of cash registers. I got into that shop by chance, I usually buy goods in another Ashan, so I don't know the ins and outs of the experiment, but it's all a trend, everywhere where you can replace a weak human with an automaton, it's happening. Cashiers, drivers of public transport are the first to arrive. Next will be employees of call centres (already now, by the way, in Raif.Bank, a machine asks to say that you're calling about a mortgage, and says so - say "mortgage" and connects to the right employee. At C0mte7, a company that teaches Avaya courses, the machine asks you to say the surname of the employee to connect with him. Back in my childhood, in the film "Guest from the Future", Kolya Gerasimov used to talk to a machine to buy a ticket to the moon or wherever. Now, 25 years later, it's practically reality, but according to the film it was 208x some year ago. OK, I got carried away :)

[Sceptic Philozoff]

ns_k:
Maybe a little off-topic, but still. Do you believe that at football matches, for example, in the next 10 years there will be no referees on the pitch? The trend now is that there are more and more moments in sports where you need to watch video replays. As far as I understand, the robot is already able to determine when the ball goes over the line, when a goal is taken and when offside is taken.

Do you understand the difference between predicting ball movement and the same for the Eurobucks rate?

In the first case it is mechanics (even if "distorted" by the interaction of the ball with the air), while in the second it is purely an information system, with probably no one knowing all the influences affecting the exchange rate.

In addition, the trading system itself affects the rate (if applied en masse) - and eventually it loses effectiveness. This is not the case with the ball, there is no such explicit feedback.

[Nikolai Karetnikov]

Mathemat:

Do you understand the difference between predicting ball movement and the same for the Eurobucks rate?

In the first case it is mechanics (even if "distorted" by the interaction of the ball with the air), and in the second case it is purely an information system, and probably no one knows all the influences affecting the rate.

Also, the trading system itself affects the rate (if applied en masse) - and eventually it loses effectiveness. This is not the case with the ball, there is no such explicit feedback.

All right, you don't even have to predict the ball movement, just record it, it's easier with facts than with predictions, but a car movement is a response to unpredictable events, though not yet.The second point you have the strongest of course, I agree, course prediction is not chess and not even weather forecast. I'm not a predictor and I'm not saying that Forex will degenerate tomorrow, because all exchange rates will be determined by some computer programme that, weighing all known factors influencing the rate, will set it, say, an hour, a day or a week ahead. I say that everything is moving towards it, and it is hard to say when we will get there, in 10 years or in a hundred of years. I think sooner rather than later. Again, maybe it's utopia, nobody cancelled demand and if somebody knows something that is unknown to that supercomputer, it may be played on this, again, this is the strongest point of your post.