D1 price is on primary bearish with secondary market rally:
is on bullish by breaking the border of Ichimoku cloud to be outside kumo.
is on primary bearish with 0.8540 support level.
MN price is on bearish market condition ranging between 0.8642 support and 0.9503 resistance levels.
If D1 price will break 0.8764 resistance level so the secondary rally within primary bearish will be continuingIf D1 price will break Sinkou Span A line of Ichimoku indicator so the reversal of from bearish to the bullish may be started.If not so we may see the ranging within bearish market condition.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-11-17 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Motor Vehicle Sales]
2014-11-17 23:00 GMT (or 00:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - CB Leading Index]
2014-11-18 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
2014-11-18 08:25 GMT (or 09:25 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speech]
2014-11-18 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - PPI]
2014-11-19 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2014-11-19 19:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
2014-11-20 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI]
2014-11-20 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
2014-11-20 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on AUDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.11.14 17:44
newdigital, 2014.11.18 05:47
More hawkish than expected = Good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
RBA Minutes: Modest Growth Likely To Continue For Economy
Members of Australia's monetary policy board believed that the rate of growth for Australia's economy is likely to hold steady for the time being, minutes from the central bank's November 4 meeting revealed on Tuesday.
the meeting, the RBA left its benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record
low 2.50 percent. The rate has been at the current level since August
"The forces underpinning the outlook for domestic activity
were much as they had been for some time and the forecasts had not
materially changed; GDP growth was still expected to be below trend over
2014/15, before gradually picking up to an above-trend pace towards the
end of 2016," the minutes said.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.11.18
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event
newdigital, 2014.11.16 10:59
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar has witnessed some surprising resilience over the
past week with it posting modest gains against most of its peers. The
driving force behind the small advance may have been a general drive to
yield, given similar gains were witnessed for risk sentiment proxies
(S&P 500). Meanwhile, regional economic data once again proved
uneventful for the commodity currency.
The coming week brings the release of the RBA’s November Meeting
Minutes. The decision itself proved a non-event for the AUD and given
the fairly well broadcast views from the Board, the Minutes are unlikely
to deliver anyrevelations for traders. Similarly, upcoming Chinese
data may see another muted response from the currency since it would
likely take a significant deterioration over an extended period to
generate a response from RBA officials. This could leave the AUD to
continue to seek guidance from sources outside of domestic monetary
The potential for general positive risk sentiment to act as a
sustainable fuel source for the Aussie may be limited. This is given
implied volatility levels are near their 2014 highs, suggesting traders
are anticipating some strong swings amongst the major currency pairs.
This in turn may detract from the carry appeal of the Aussie and could
limit the scope for further gains.
Speculative trader positioning (reflected in the latest COT report)
reveals short positions are still some distance away from the extremes
witnessed early last year. In turn this suggests the short AUD trade
newdigital, 2014.11.19 08:52
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis November 20, 2014, Forecast (based on fxempire article)
eased by 49 points give up weekly gains as the US dollar recovered in
the morning session. The Aussie is trading at 0.8670. Problems from
Japan weigh on the Aussie. Japan’s Abe confirmed widespread speculation
by announcing he would delay plans for an unpopular second hike in the
consumption tax scheduled for October next year by 18 months and would
dissolve the lower house of parliament on Nov. 21 to seek a mandate at
the polls next month for his set of economic policies, known as
Abenomics, and includes economic reforms that have proven difficult to
implement. The announcement came after data this week showed the
Japanese economy has fallen into recession, with two quarters of
negative growth. This in turn weakened the Australian dollar, as traders
focused on the Japanese government getting a mandate to delay a planned
sales tax rise.
The Australian dollar eased again as traders positioned themselves
for today’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October
meeting, and for possible clues on an American rate rise.
RBA governor Glenn Stevens told a business dinner in Melbourne that
interest rates were likely to stay at a record low of 2.5 per cent for
some time as mining investment and income growth fell and household debt
and unemployment rose.
newdigital, 2014.11.16 15:48
AUD/USD weekly outlook: November 17 - 21
The Australian dollar bounced back from earlier losses to settle at a
two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as a round of
profit-taking sent the greenback sliding.
hit a daily low of 0.8649 on Friday, before turning 0.48% higher to
subsequently consolidate at 0.8759 by close of trade, the highest since
October 31. The pair rose 1.43% on the week.The pair is likely to find support at 0.8649, Friday's low, and resistance at 0.8843, the high from October 31.The
U.S. dollar was boosted after the Commerce Department reported that
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, ahead of forecasts for a 0.2%
increase.The greenback trimmed gains after separate data showed
that U.S. inflation expectations fell in an otherwise upbeat report on
consumer confidence for this month.The preliminary reading of
the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to a seven
year high of 89.4, better than forecasts of 87.5 and up from October’s
reading of 86.9.However, the report also showed that consumers
expected annual inflation of 2.6% this year, down from expectations for
inflation of 2.9% in October.The US dollar index,
which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six
major currencies, was down 0.25% to 87.61 in late trade, not far from
the more than four-year highs of 88.36 hit earlier in the session.In
the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of
the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and Thursday’s report on the U.S.
consumer price index.Monday, November 17
Tuesday, November 18
Wednesday, November 19
Thursday, November 20
newdigital, 2014.11.20 05:26
AUD/USD Daily Outlook (adapted from actionforex article)
AUD/USD's fall from 0.8795 picked up some momentum. But still, it's
held above 0.8539 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and more
consolidation could be seen in range of 0.8539/8910. As long as 0.8910
resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. Break of 0.8539
should target 61.8% projection of 0.9401 to 0.8642 from 0.8910 at
0.8441. However, decisive break of 0.8910 will indicate near term
reversal and turn outlook bullish.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a
medium term correction. The rejection from 55 weeks EMA and current
downside acceleration suggests that it's still in progress. Sustained
break of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544 will pave the
way to 61.8% retracement at 0.7945 and below. On the upside, break of
0.9504 is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, we won't
turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.
newdigital, 2014.11.20 12:06
Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)
A downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spark a more
meaningful rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens the interest rate outlook
for the world’s largest economy.
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
It seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in no
rush to normalize monetary policy as a growing number of central bank
officials highlight the downside risk for inflation expectations, and a
marked slowdown in price growth may undermine the bullish sentiment
surrounding the greenback as central bank hawks Richard Fisher and
Charles Plosser lose their vote in 2015.
Nevertheless, the ongoing improvement in household and business
confidence may stoke faster price growth, and a strong inflation report
should boost the appeal of the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to
normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. CPI Slows to Annualized 1.6% or Lower
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.11.20
AUDUSD M5: 32 pips range price movement by USD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.11.21 06:21
Scalping the AUDUSD Correction- Longs Favored Above 8565 (based on dailyfx article)
This is Chinese Rate news event (if you follow fundamental news so you know) which was affected on this price movement for AUDUSD:
AUDUSD, M5, 2014.11.21