Why price behaviour changes over time? What's exactly behind forex market?

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Hi

This is in my mind for some days now. Why price behaviour changes over time? I mean, for example, you find a strategy or EA which is very profitable now. But after a month or two it bacomes useless.
I believe this market wants to grab your money. And there are big players who do that. How can we not to get in this trap? How can we, as retail traders, act like big players? Can the price movement be predicted for real? Or all about technical analysis is a trash and it's all about luck? 
 
Robert hofer:
Hi

This is in my mind for some days now. Why price behaviour changes over time? I mean, for example, you find a strategy or EA which is very profitable now. But after a month or two it bacomes useless.
I believe this market wants to grab your money. And there are big players who do that. How can we not to get in this trap? How can we, as retail traders, act like big players? Can the price movement be predicted for real? Or all about technical analysis is a trash and it's all about luck? 

It seems back in the nineties, mechanical trading was still viable. Today it is not. Some of the best algorithmic traders are working for big players and manipulating the market with the help of algorithms to lure you into making wrong decisions. Of course there is a lot of money involved and they are not almighty. Still they give their impulses fishing for stops. You are literally throwing your money in a shark tank. There are patterns that you can make use of, but you have to find them and think outside of the box. If you think there is an easy standard way of making money here, they have taught you well.

If you just stick to the rules, three years from now all you are earning money with will be freelance assignments.

How does the shark move? You have to be like the cleaner fish that stick to the sharks surface. Then again the freelance section might be just that.

 
pennyhunter:

It seems back in the nineties, mechanical trading was still viable. Today it is not. Some of the best algorithmic traders are working for big players and manipulating the market with the help of algorithms to lure you into making wrong decisions. Of course there is a lot of money involved and they are not almighty. Still they give their impulses fishing for stops. You are literally throwing your money in a shark tank. There are patterns that you can make use of, but you have to find them and think outside of the box. If you think there is an easy standard way of making money here, they have taught you well.

If you just stick to the rules, three years from now all you are earning money with will be freelance assignments.

How does the shark move? You have to be like the cleaner fish that stick to the sharks surface. Then again the freelance section might be just that.

It's a very close approximation, though not entirely accurate. :)

 
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Ahmet Metin Yilmaz:

It's a very close approximation, though not entirely accurate. :)

I would love it if you pointed out the inaccuracy :D
 
pennyhunter:
I would love it if you pointed out the inaccuracy :D

Someone selling shovels is unlikely to dig for gold.

 
Enrique Dangeroux:

Someone selling shovels is unlikely to dig for gold.

You can't sell shovels if gold doesn't come out..

 
pennyhunter:
I would love it if you pointed out the inaccuracy :D

As you know, all currencies are in a relationship with each other. But the first determiners are the majors. Unless there is a significant fluctuation in the majors and the global economy, they act according to their own dynamics and in line with the indicators used in technical analysis. When an unexpected change occurs in the global economy, and when there are fluctuations that you cannot predict in the technical analysis, the indecision in the majors causes the minor currencies or crosses to enter into an excessive and unpredictable fluctuation process until they enter into correlation. I think this is one explanation.
But, as you wrote, I also think that some capital owners gain extra income by having software and hardware that small investors cannot have, such as high frequency trading.

 
I see it a little different. Behavior of price does not really change. Market structure does change.

Price either ranges or trends. Or a little more detailed, it contracts after a move and it expands before a move. Then it moves up or down.

This cycle keeps repeating.

There are (at least) two types of market participants. Big money (sharks) and small money (cleaner fish).

They are split into all in all 4 groups, want to be and are sellers and buyers.
Want to be sellers and buyers want price to go up, while sellers and want to be buyers want price to go down.

Big orders cannot be placed simply in the market (big banks, institutions, funds) because price would run away while the order gets executed. So they need to take measure to have liquidity.

This is usually served by the small fishes, the retail trader.

So as a retail trader, you want to have big moves. How do you get them, should be the question to ask. And what needs to happen to have the market make such moves. Well, big players.

In fact, both parties need each other, else the market would not move (significantly) enough.

Edit:
Then there are so called event moves, news is.
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