D1 price is on bearish market condition located below
Ichimoku cloud/kumo trying to break 1.3585 support on close
bar for the bearish to be continuing.
H4 price is on market rally within primary bearish stopped by 1.3649 resistance level.
D1 price will break 1.3585 support so the primary bearish will be continuing.If not so we may see the ranging market condition within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-06-02 07:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-02 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-02 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-03 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-03 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-03 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
2014-06-03 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI]
2014-06-03 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Factory Orders]
2014-06-04 07:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Services PMI]
2014-06-04 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Final Services PMI]
2014-06-04 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - GDP]
2014-06-04 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-06-04 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
2014-06-04 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-06-05 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Factory Orders]
2014-06-05 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Retail Sales]
2014-06-05 11:45 GMT (or 13:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Interest Rate]
2014-06-05 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ECB Press Conference]
2014-06-06 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Trade Balance]
2014-06-06 06:45 GMT (or 08:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French Trade Balance]
2014-06-06 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.05.31 16:29
newdigital, 2014.06.02 09:26
2014-06-02 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed's Evans Speech]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD - Fed's Evans Speech = Charles L. Evans is the ninth president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
In that capacity, he serves on the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC), the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy-making body.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans provided his
perspective on monetary policy at a macroeconomics workshop in Turkey.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.06.02
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 20 pips price movement by USD - Fed's Evans Speech news event
newdigital, 2014.06.02 16:32
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
EURUSD M5 : 13 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI news event
newdigital, 2014.06.03 10:27
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change = Change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of
unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health
because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market
EURUSD, M5, 2014.06.03
EURUSD M5 : 5 pips price movement by EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change news event
newdigital, 2014.06.03 12:49
[EUR - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
Eurozone Inflation Slows More Than Forecast
Eurozone inflation slowed more than expected in May, raising concerns about deflationary pressures.
fell to 0.5 percent in May from 0.7 percent in April, flash estimates
published by Eurostat showed Tuesday. The rate was forecast to ease
marginally to 0.6 percent.
Inflation held below the European Central Bank's target of 'below, but close to 2 percent' for the sixteenth consecutive month.
Excluding food, alcohol and tobacco, core inflation slowed to 0.7 percent from 1 percent a month ago.
prices remained flat after declining 1.2 percent in April. Cost of
services advanced 1.1 percent, slower than the 1.6 percent increase seen
in the previous month. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices gained only 0.1
EURUSD M5 : 21 pips price movement by EUR - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.06.03 17:57
EURUSD: "Sell the Rumor, Buy the News" Reaction to ECB? (adapted from fxstreet article)
It seems like the only topic on forex
traders’ minds this week is Thursday’s European Central Bank
announcement. Since last month’s hint of future action from ECB
President Mario Draghi, the market has grown more and more convinced
that the ECB will not only cut its main interest rate on Thursday, but
also take nonconventional actions to try to stave off deflation. We’ll
have a full ECB preview up tomorrow, but for now we’d like to set the
scene from a sentiment and positioning perspective.
traditional dichotomy between technical and fundamental analysis, one
oft-overlooked aspect of a currency’s value is traders’ sentiment and
positioning. When traders are overly optimistic on a certain currency
pair, it often falls despite typically bullish fundamental and technical
events. Likewise, when traders become excessively pessimistic on an
instrument, it may rally regardless of the fundamental or technical
developments because there’s “no one left to sell.” The most reliable
way to see how the market is positioned is through the CFTC’s Commitment
of Traders report, which shows whether various types of traders have
bought or sold different currency pairs. A chart of the most recent COT
data (from last Tuesday) is shown below:
“Commercial traders,” shown in red
below, are typically large companies trying to hedge their currency
risk, and as a result, they are not interested in making money trading.
For this reason, the large (green) and small (blue) speculators give the
most reliable indication of how active, profit-driven traders are
positioned. Looking at the current data shows that these traders are
nearing bearish extremes on the EUR/USD heading into Thursday’s ECB
meeting: large speculators are currently net short the EUR/USD to the
tune of 17,000 futures contracts, the most bearish reading since August
2013, while small speculators are net short almost 25,000 contracts,
also near 1-year lows.
This extreme bearish positioning suggests
that many traders have already sold the EUR/USD in anticipation of bold
action by the ECB on Thursday. Paradoxically, this suggests that even
if the ECB fulfills expectations by cutting its main interest rate by a
token amount and reducing its deposit rate to negative levels, the
EUR/USD could actually bounce in a classic “sell the rumor, buy the
news” dynamic. At this point, the ECB may have to reach for its “Big
Bazooka” – Quantitative Easing – to truly elicit more weakness in the
We saw an instructive example of this phenomenon earlier
today with the release of the eurozone CPI, which printed at just 0.5%
vs. expectations of a 0.7% rise. With the ECB’s laser-like focus on
inflation of late, this weak report increases the likelihood of bold
action by the central bank. However, the EUR/USD has actually spiked 50
pips higher since the report (see chart below), suggesting that euro
shorts may be simply overextended and exhausted.
In the short
term, the pair may remain trapped within its recent range between 78.6%
daily Fibonacci retracement support at 1.3587 and
previous-support-turned-resistance at 1.3650 ahead of the ECB’s
decision. However, the EUR/USD may be primed for a bounce later this
week unless the traditionally-conservative ECB can break its mold with
truly bold action on Thursday.
newdigital, 2014.06.04 11:09
[EUR - Spanish Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. It's positively correlated with interest rates - early in the economic
cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and
investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to
Spanish Service Sector Activity Rises At A Slower Rate In May
Spanish service sector activity continued to rise in May, though at a
slower rate, the results of a survey by Markit Economics showed
The service sector business
activity index fell to 55.7 in May from 56.5 in April. The index was
also below the consensus estimate that called for a reading of 56.1.
Nevertheless, this marked the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
Among the sub-sectors, the biggest expansion was seen at post and telecommunications and financial intermediation companies
levels rose for the second consecutive month, marking the first
instance of back-to-back rises in employment since early 2008, though at
a moderate rate. Due to weak job creation and strong growth of new
orders, backlogs of work rose for the fourth consecutive month.
New orders rose sharply in May and a general improvement in market conditions was reported.
cost inflation remained weaker than the series average. However, among
the sub-sectors, input costs at hotels and restaurants rose sharply,
diverging from the general trend.
Output prices continued to
remain low owing to competitive pressures. However, the pace of decrease
slowed for the fifth straight month and was at its weakest since August
2008 when the current sequence of decline began.
sentiment remained positive in May, changing little from the previous
month. The optimism is attributed to predictions of an ongoing economic
recovery in Spain.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.06.04
EURUSD M5 : 7 pips price movement by EUR - Spanish Services PMI news event
newdigital, 2014.06.04 13:21
[EUR - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. There are 3 versions of GDP released about 20 days apart - Flash,
Revised, and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to
have the most impact
Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth Confirmed At 0.2%
The euro area economy grew as initially estimated in the first quarter, second estimate from Eurostat showed Wednesday.
domestic product in the 18-nation currency bloc grew 0.2 percent
sequentially, slower than the revised 0.3 percent expansion posted in
the fourth quarter of 2013.
On a yearly basis, growth accelerated
to 0.9 percent from 0.5 percent. Eurostat confirmed the preliminary
estimates for the first quarter released on May 15.
On the expenditure side, household spending gained only 0.1 percent, while government expenditure grew 0.3 percent.
advanced 0.3 percent versus a 0.9 percent rise in the previous quarter.
The increase in exports eased sharply to 0.3 percent from 1.4 percent.
On the other hand, imports growth rose marginally to 0.8 percent from
EURUSD M5 : 20 pips price movement by EUR - GDP news event
newdigital, 2014.06.05 10:43
[EUR - German Factory Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal
that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the
German Factory Orders Recover In April
Germany factory orders recovered at a faster than expected pace in April, official figures revealed Thursday.
orders increased 3.1 percent in April from March, Destatis reported.
Economists were expecting a 1.4 percent rise in orders after falling 2.8
percent in March.
Foreign orders increased 5.5 percent, while domestic orders remained at the level of the previous month.
from the euro area advanced 9.9 percent on the previous month. At the
same time, orders from other countries were up 3.1 percent.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.06.05
EURUSD M5 : 11 pips price movement by EUR - German Factory Orders news event
newdigital, 2014.06.05 11:51
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision
The EUR/USD may face a sharp selloff over the next 24-hours of trade as
market participants see the European Central Bank (ECB) pushing monetary
policy into uncharted territory.
Why Is This Event Important:
Beyond expectations for a rate cut & negative deposit rates, the
ECB may also look to implement more non-standard measures in an effort
to increase lending to small-and-medium sized enterprises (SME), but the
bearish sentiment surrounding the single-currency may end up being
short-lived should central bank President Mario Draghi scale back his
willingness to further embark on the easing cycle.
The growing threat for deflation paired with the ongoing contraction in
private sector credit may prompt the ECB to implement a range of tools
to address the weakening outlook for the monetary union, and the EUR/USD
may test fresh yearly lows over the near-term should central bank leave
the door open for more easing.
Nevertheless, the downtick in unemployment paired with improvement in
confidence may encourage the ECB to further delay its easing cycle, and a
rate cut alone may present a buying opportunity for the EUR/USD as
market participants have already priced-in a reduction in the benchmark
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Cuts Rates & Keeps Door Open for More Monetary Easing
May 2014 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
EURUSD M5 : 26 pips price movement by EUR - Interest Rate news event :
The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate on hold in
May as the central bank continues to see a gradual recovery in the
monetary union, but it seems as though the Governing Council is showing a
greater willingness to implement additional monetary support in the
coming months as President Mario Draghi highlights a greater risk for
deflation. Despite the initial market reaction to the ECB rate decision,
speculation for more easing dragged on the EUR/USD, with the pair
closing the day at 1.3838.
EURUSD M5 : 82 pips range price movement by EUR - Interest Rate news event :