D1 price is on secondary rally within primary bearish market condition trying to break 1.3651 resistance level. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is very near to be crossed with historical price for possible breakout of the price movement.
is on primary bullish crossing 1.3645 on open bar for the breakout to be continuing.
is on primary bullish with Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator to be very near to be crossed with the price for good breakout.
D1 price will break 1.3651 resistance level together with Chinkou Span line crossing the price from below to above so the secondary rally will be continuing with good breakout situation.If not so we may see ranging market condition within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-06-30 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Retail Sale]
2014-06-30 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - M3 Money Supply]
2014-06-30 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]
2014-06-30 13:45 GMT (or 15:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Chicago PMI]
2014-06-30 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Pending Home Sales]
2014-07-01 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-07-01 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2014-07-01 07:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]
2014-07-01 07:55 GMT (or 09:55 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Unemployment Change]
2014-07-01 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-07-01 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Unemployment Rate]
2014-07-01 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2014-07-02 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
2014-07-02 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - GDP]
2014-07-02 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-07-02 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Factory Orders]
2014-07-02 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2014-07-03 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-07-03 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Services PMI]
2014-07-03 07:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Services PMI]
2014-07-03 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Retail Sales]
2014-07-03 11:45 GMT (or 13:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Interest Rate]
2014-07-03 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-07-03 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
2014-07-03 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : rally
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newdigital, 2014.06.28 10:53
newdigital, 2014.06.28 17:57
newdigital, 2014.06.30 13:50
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German Retail Sale] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Also Called : Real Retail Sales.
German Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly In May
German retail sales fell unexpectedly in May from the prior month, official data revealed Monday.
sales were down 0.6 percent month-on-month in May, but slower than the
1.5 percent drop seen in April, provisional results from Destatis
showed. This was the second consecutive fall in sales. Economists had
forecast a 0.8 percent rise in turnover in May.
turnover grew 1.9 percent in May from the same period of last year, when
it was expected to rise by 1 percent. Nonetheless, the rate of growth
slowed from 3.2 percent logged in April.
Compared with the
previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first five months of
the year in real terms 1.4 percent larger than that in the corresponding
period of the previous year.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.06.30
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 13 pips price movement by German Retail Sales news event
newdigital, 2014.06.30 17:34
2014-06-30 14:30 GMT (or 16:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index]
[USD - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index] = The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly
to obtain a timely assessment of the state's factory activity. Firms are
asked by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators
increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each
index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents
reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase.
The Dallas Fed's latest manufacturing outlook survey is out, and the numbers look good.
The headline index jumped to 11.4 in June from 8.0 in May.
Economists were looking for a reading of 8.5.
EURUSD M5 : 31 pips price movement by USD - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index news event
newdigital, 2014.06.29 17:50
newdigital, 2014.07.01 12:03
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of
unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health
because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market
Eurozone May Jobless Rate Stable At 11.6%
The Eurozone unemployment rate remained unchanged in May, latest figures from Eurostat showed Tuesday.
jobless rate held steady at seasonally adjusted 11.6 percent in May
after April's figure was revised down from 11.7 percent. Economists had
forecast the unemployment rate to remain at 11.7 percent.
number of unemployed decreased by 28,000 from April to 18.55 million.
Compared to last May, unemployment declined by 636,000.
The EU28 jobless rate fell to 10.3 percent in May from 10.4 percent in April.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.07.01
EURUSD M5 : 11 pips price movement by EUR - Unemployment Rate news event
newdigital, 2014.07.01 19:37
[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy
U.S. Manufacturing Index Indicates Slightly Slower Growth In June
Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly grew at a
slightly slower rate in the month of June, according to a report
released by the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday.
ISM said its purchasing managers index edged down to 55.3 in June from
55.4 in May, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth in the
The modest decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to inch up to a reading of 55.8.
the modest decrease, Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING,
noted that the index continues to point to robust growth.
headline manufacturing ISM figure is consistent with GDP growth of
3.5%, and in all likelihood, the U.S. will grow a good deal faster than
that in 2Q14 following the execrable 1Q14 GDP result," Carnell said.
modest decrease by the headline index was partly due to a slowdown in
production growth, as the production index dipped to 60.0 in June from
61.0 in May.
On the other hand, growth in new orders accelerated
compared to the previous month, with the new orders index climbing to
58.9 in June from 56.9 in May.
report also showed that the employment index came in unchanged at 52.8,
indicating the twelfth consecutive month of job growth in the
While recent inflation data has pointed to
prices rising at a faster rate, the ISM said its prices index fell to
58.0 in June from 60.0 in May.
Thursday morning, the ISM is scheduled to release a separate report on activity in the service sector in the month of June.
Economists expect the index of activity in the service sector to edge down to 56.2 in June after climbing to 56.3 in May.
EURUSD M5 : 16 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI news event
newdigital, 2014.07.02 07:04
EUR/USD Technical Analysis – Rally Stalls Below 1.37 Mark (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro paused to digest gains following an expected rally against the US Dollar,
failing to overcome resistance below the 1.37 figure. A daily close
above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3689 initially exposes the
50% level at 1.3747. Alternatively, a move below
resistance-turned-support marked by a falling trend line set from
mid-May, now at 1.3620, clears the way for a challenge of the May 29 low
newdigital, 2014.07.02 11:22
EUR/USD consolidates after Monday's risec
EUR/USD started the new quarter
with a dull trading session. The pair hovered directionless in a 20 pips
range between 1.3680 and 1.37. The EMU data were second tier and thus
ignored. The US manufacturing ISM was slightly weaker than expected, but
close to expectations and thus also unable to support the greenback.
Rallying equities were also unable to give EUR/USD direction. The pair
closed the dull session at 1.3679, down 13 pips from Monday’s close at
Overnight, Asian equities
trade with a bullish touch, after the S&P and Dow set closed at new
records yesterday. The dollar is flat versus euro and yen. US Treasuries
trade little changed, while the Bund opened just below 147 this
morning. So, FX trading starts the European session ina neutral mode.
the euro zone eco calendar is thin with only the PPI inflation data.
These data are however rather outdated (May) and shouldn’t have a
lasting impact on trading. In the US, the focus will be on the ADP employment report,
ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. We see risks for a slightly weaker
outcome, which might be slightly negative for the US dollar.
Nevertheless, a significant deviation from the consensus is probably
needed to have a lasting impact on markets, especially ahead of
tomorrow’s payrolls and ECB meeting. The dollar probably needs a strong
payrolls report to make a meaningful comeback against the euro and/or