What will be risky if we combine martingale and hedging? - page 4
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This says absolutely nothing about others.
Just because you can not get it to work does not mean that it is impossible.
Thank you so much, Airat.
Risk management in high uncertainty.
This says absolutely nothing about others.
Just because you can not get it to work does not mean that it is impossible.
Thank you very much, Marco.
EA only do 50% work, more 50% depends on the user.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Working on an intelligence lot size algorithm together...
Murat Yazici, 2020.05.23 17:52
Hi all,
I hope you are well. I want to develop an intelligence lot size algorithm for a Reward/Risk= 1/6 ratio.
I use 5pips take profits and 30 pips initial stop loss points. I have developed an EA. It have completed its live test for 3 weeks.
It have obtained 81% success rate ( Total trades: 324, Profitable trades: 264). Because of 1/6 Reward/Risk ratio, the 81% success rate is not enough to be profitable at the end of the month with " a stabil lot size".
If I can develop a intelligence lot size algorithm, I can be in a profit with 1/6 Reward/Risk ratio at the end of the month. I wonder if there are any person who want to work with me about creating an intelligence algorithm via forum. If we have a success, we can apply this intelligence algorithm on a lot of system to be in a profit.
What is your approach? I have create the system's mathematical optimization model as follows;
The Aim Function: max ∑i lotsizei (35f(i)-30)
The aim function aims to obtain max. profits. i represents how many trades and f(i) function indicates as follows;
f(i)= 1 ; in success trade,
0 ; in unsuccess trade.
What is your ideas? :)
Best,
Murat Y.
@Murat Yazici how's your work doing ? Visibly hedging/martingale is the trending topic actually.
For those reading, I link hedging/martingale to lot size management strategy since a strategy based on lotsize suppose it will add and release lots depending on the situation.
I saw someone sent me a question yesterday in mobile diverse, but the question seems deleted and I forgot what was the question. Sorry for my late reply.
Hi Sky,
That was my post which was deleted by the moderator, maybe because of the link I attached.
As I explained, I have tried Martingale and have always burned my account.
I tried averaging without martingale and succeeded in some cases, and by chance I managed to make the bot with hedging added.
I tried Pyramid with hedging, in this system seems the most reasonable because I am not afraid of being hit by trending thousands of pips or spike thousands of pips. it still have 2 weaknesses : Sideway and margin endurance.
But after reading your experience sharing, that you have successfully implemented a hedging martingale, I opened my mind and tried to think of a way for hedging martingale to work.
Recently I managed to do 2017-2020 backtest with good results and low drawdown with Pyramid added and modification lot that i call linier martingale , not pure martingale and modification step that i call expanding step. Now I am trying to do a backtesting from 2010 to 2020 by using the MT5 version because the quality of the backtest results is better by using MT5.
Pray for good luck and if you are willing to share the methods you use will be even better, so that it can help the development of the hedging martingale bot.
Regards,
Note:
from your previous explanation, I've actually gotten a little description of the method you use.
Hi Sky,
That was my post which was deleted by the moderator, maybe because of the link I attached.
As I explained, I have tried Martingale and have always burned my account.
I tried averaging without martingale and succeeded in some cases, and by chance I managed to make the bot with hedging added.
I tried Pyramid with hedging, in this system seems the most reasonable because I am not afraid of being hit by trending thousands of pips or spike thousands of pips. it still have 2 weaknesses : Sideway and margin endurance.
But after reading your experience sharing, that you have successfully implemented a hedging martingale, I opened my mind and tried to think of a way for hedging martingale to work.
Recently I managed to do 2017-2020 backtest with good results and low drawdown with Pyramid added and modification lot that i call linier martingale , not pure martingale and modification step that i call expanding step. Now I am trying to do a backtesting from 2010 to 2020 by using the MT5 version because the quality of the backtest results is better by using MT5.
Pray for good luck and if you are willing to share the methods you use will be even better, so that it can help the development of the hedging martingale bot.
Regards,
Note:
from your previous explanation, I've actually gotten a little description of the method you use.
That was you, Sagianto.
Out-site URL is prohibited here.
My suggestion is always full with mistake and bias.
As my personal experience, I'd like to use strategies below to have fun with martingale + hedging.
1. Strategy based on trend analysis. For example sell for EURUSD before crisis, buy for gold under crisis.
2. Work with many different pairs. Back test data shows the trick in the past very clear, if the strategy only could work in few pairs, then it may over optimized. MT5 is a very good platform to work with different pairs.
3. When we use martingale + hedging, the risk and drow down level will increase much more than the increase of profit level as my analysis. Provider have to mention it to users.
4. Stress test could pass 2008, 2011, 2016.
5. Stop loss fit to the whole strategy.
6. Individual interesting idea based on the strategy.
However I'm not a provider and I can not help you with code.
Marco and Icham seem very experienced in this area, I think they can help you very much.
Thank you in advance and best wishes,
Sky
That was you, Sagianto.
Out-site URL is prohibited here.
My suggestion is always full with mistake and bias.
As my personal experience, I'd like to use strategies below to have fun with martingale + hedging.
1. Strategy based on trend analysis. For example sell for EURUSD before crisis, buy for gold under crisis.
2. Work with many different pairs. Back test data shows the trick in the past very clear, if the strategy only could work in few pairs, then it may over optimized. MT5 is a very good platform to work with different pairs.
3. When we use martingale + hedging, the risk and drow down level will increase much more than the increase of profit level as my analysis. Provider have to mention it to users.
4. Stress test could pass 2008, 2011, 2016.
5. Stop loss fit to the whole strategy.
6. Individual interesting idea based on the strategy.
However I'm not a provider and I can not help you with code.
Marco and Icham seem very experienced in this area, I think they can help you very much.
Thank you in advance and best wishes,
Sky
Thank you for the explanation, I can conclude based on your explanation:
1. So I still have to do the analysis first, and it seems to be done manually instead of full auto by bot. In this case I'm still unclear, please clarify.
2. From your previous explanation, sometimes you only add lots and sometimes use pure martingale, meaning your backtest is done periodically instead of full auto for the past 10 years so you can still adjust it according to conditions. In this case I'm still unclear, please clarify.
And thank you for the advice about the code, incidentally I just need a description of how it works, not the code.
Thank you for the explanation, I can conclude based on your explanation:
1. So I still have to do the analysis first, and it seems to be done manually instead of full auto by bot. In this case I'm still unclear, please clarify.
2. From your previous explanation, sometimes you only add lots and sometimes use pure martingale, meaning your backtest is done periodically instead of full auto for the past 10 years so you can still adjust it according to conditions. In this case I'm still unclear, please clarify.
And thank you for the advice about the code, incidentally I just need a description of how it works, not the code.
Thank you, Sugianto.
Sorry for my poor explanation.
I think what makes you confuse, is the way I'm using EA.
It might be a different topic, but please let me explain it more.
I think EA only do 50% work, more 50% depends on the user.
If the EA's provider does not reject very much, I'd like to try to use EA in different way depends on different situation.
The situation is variable, cause the way to use EA also variable.
As normal users, we can optimize them, we can turn them on/off as needed, we can combine them and also we can do some manual support for them.
In the other hand, there are a lot of EA is full-auto and with black box system.
Users don't/can't understand the EA in a same level as the providers.
It increase the difficulty very much to use the EA.
Is this the answer you are asking for?
How do you think about it?
Thank you and best wishes,
Sky
Thank you, Sugianto.
Sorry for my poor explanation.
I think what makes you confuse, is the way I'm using EA.
It might be a different topic, but please let me explain it more.
I think EA only do 50% work, more 50% depends on the user.
If the EA's provider does not reject very much, I'd like to try to use EA in different way depends on different situation.
The situation is variable, cause the way to use EA also variable.
As normal users, we can optimize them, we can turn them on/off as needed, we can combine them and also we can do some manual support for them.
In the other hand, there are a lot of EA is full-auto and with black box system.
Users don't/can't understand the EA in a same level as the providers.
It increase the difficulty very much to use the EA.
Is this the answer you are asking for?
How do you think about it?
Thank you and best wishes,
Sky
Hi Sky,
I totally agree about human interference in its use.
I think the bot is only as a tool, and humans as users.
Don't leave it entirely to the bot, but there must be human intervention in its use so as to produce the perfect combination.
Bots that I make on average have a feature in this regard.
Marty averaging is only suitable for use when sideway conditions and in pairs that are not so volatile, and we know that not every time is always sideway and no pair is not volatile.
The position is open for too long because the averaging marty will very likely be hit by a spike of thousands of pips or hit by trending thousands of pips.
Hedging only slows down affected margin calls, and if the bot is allowed to open positions continuously with lots that are always increasing, then the margin will thin out.
Human intervention must also be timely, knowing when to intervene and when only to make sure the bot is working perfectly. And of course this requires very good experience and money management.
best wishes for you