A-B-C-D Trade - page 7

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Exited and filled @ 1.2246, which is just above FE 100 on tighter pull.

 

Entered at break Point of tighter pull. Exited 2nd visit of FE 100 area of 1.2240 and decided to exit, filling at 1.2246 + 3 pip spread = 1.2249 for + 37 pips.

Now it's sitting like a bird on the 1-Hour FE 100 of 1.2263

 

EUR/USD took out Oct 2008 low of 1.2329. This was significant enough for me to trade.

While monitoring the 1-hour, waited for tighter ABC to develop on 5-min and confirm below 1.2300 . It pivoted and formed Point B of 1.2288.

Retraced only slightly to 1.2304 (23.6% retrace fib). Hardly had time to draw the ABC before it broke B. You can see it better on the 1-min.

3 charts attached: 1-hour, 5-min, and 1-min. The small charts had the tighter ABC

 

After testing and failing at 12:00 GMT, EUR/USD did manage to breakout to the upside, albeit in a samll way. If you targeted just 15 pips, you made money. Has just hit the FE 100, and touched FE 127, where I also had a Fibo Fan line. Thus, trading break of B provided 32 gross pips to the FE 100.

A = 1.2294

B = 1.2365

C = 1.2326

FE 100= 1.2397

FE 127 = 1.2416

FE 161.8 = 1.2441

Edit: Here's the pic of 5-min chart.

Also here is 2nd chart with tighter pull, as there were more than one pivot. Labels for both lows. As we can see, the tighter pull's FE 161.8 fib is the general area of the first ABC expansion FE 127.

Since the tighter pull has a large retrace of A-B to the 78.2% fib, profit to FE 100 was insufficient.

A = 1.2311

B = 1.2365

C = 1.2326

FE 100 = 1.2380

FE 127 =1.2395

FE 161.8 = 1.2413

 

Now forming a new ABC to upside, let's see if Point C holds. The yellow horizontal line is the Asian high. THe pair bounced off of that as support.

New ABC (black fib lines)

A = 1.2326

B = 1.2414

C = 1.2361

FE 100 = 1.2449

FE 127 = 1.2473

FE 168.1 = 1.2503

Edit: Here is the 1- Hour retracement fibs. EUR/USD 5-min candle closed at the 38.1% fib and now testing it.

 

EUR/USD at 14:40 broke Point B to downside, per attached -min chart. About 26 gross pips to FE 100, which it did just hit.

 

Attached is the 1-Hour chart, with ABC for downside. Waiting to see if C holds.

A = 1.2533

B = 1.2233

C = 1.2314

FE 100 = 1.2114

FE 127 = 1.2033

FE 161.8 = 1.1929

Note Europe closing.

 

There was a false breakout from the Asian high of 1.2431. Pulling a tight ABC off of the 5-min, the false breakout did hit the FE 161.8. But obviously, if one were to have seen this, the profit was not sufficient.

The 5-min candle at 11:55 closed at 1.2336, so one could very well have entered and lost this trade if working of the low of 09:30 for Point A.

Redraw ABC.

A = 1.2364

B = 1.2443

C = 1.2397

FE 100 = 1.2479

FE 127 = 1.2500

FE 161.8 = 1.2528

It has tested high again and is at 1.2411

Edit: C from new ABC did not hold.

Note from last post, the ABC on 1-Hour: C did not hold and never borke B.

 

EUR/USd did not stay near the Asian high after several attempts to break it. In fact, it formed an ABC to the down side and finished off at the FE 100 price of 1.2382. This is an action when C does not hold. It can reverse.

 

Recapping the breakout. There was a false breakout but if we measured the ABC, it was a Move-In-Progress (MIP), and we'd be entering near the bottom of the C-D leg.

Attached is the 5-min chart with extension. We used that probe below the European session low as Point B.

Trading to the FE 161.8 provided 32 gross pips. Leg C-D eventually went further and paused at a Fibo Fan line below the FE 236.2. We cannot catch every pip,so this was a good trade.

Reason I trade to the FE 161.8 is A-B was small, only 39 pips. Otherwise, it's to the FE 100.

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