A-B-C-D Trade - page 309
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
In January, we posted the setting of Jupiter (5) and Mercury (3), but using EUR/USD natal date of 01.01.1999.
We now post Jupiter (5) and Moon (1) at natal date default, going back to Oct 2010.
Can't list the dates, but you can see the assumed 25 winners in yellow, 2 clear losers in pink, gray X are non-qualified, and gray arrows are unsure win/loss signals.
Candle period previous to signal candle must have 70/30 OB/OS condition, to qualify signal for counter-trend trade. You obviously can adjust, or add other filters, and money management.
The A4 can be downloaded in the Gann Is The Man thread, with accompanying files.
****
Use the "Search This Thread" function and type in "AstroIndicator4" to find posts in this thread and Gann Is The Man thread. Here's link to download post:
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/198881
EUR/USD GannBox_144
Start point is the June 1st low, with height = 7200 (5-digit broker), width = 360.
We last posted the break of the 4-hour diagonal ½_angle2 0. The 1-hour time-frame had the same support and labeled as ½_angle 0.
Since that June 21st 12:00 candle break, there have been several opportunities at major S&R levels.
June 21st 16:00 BUY at the yellow HLine1 0 price level of 1.2527. This is same as the 1/3rd level of box.
June 22nd 00:00 SELL at the “54” horizontal level 1.5557. This was also an exit option for previous BUY.
June 25th 08:00 BUY at blue HLine3 0, same as “36” horizontal level.
June 26th SELL at yellow HLine1 0 1.2527. This was also an exit option for previous BUY.
Drop down to the 1-hour time-frame for better view and to trigger. 3 out of 4 of those signals were in extreme OB/OS condition at point of S&R.
Important to note that each signal was the first approach during that overall downtrend.
If more required, can apply HAMA_T3 for additional guidance on S&R. The 4-hour shows containment on the 2 pullbacks. The last pullback coincided with the yellow HLine1 0.
Attached is a 15-min chart of EUR/USD, with session colors, HAMA_T3, MurreyMath1.0 (MML), and SQ9(Price).
After last Friday's rise, this pair declined during yesterday's European session. The July 2nd 09:15 peak can be seen on the left. It is near the 7/8th MML. When a peak or dip is near a MML, we can expect compliance with MML going forward until another major swing occurs.
This is a quick-glance assessment of a tool. It helps since the MurreyMath1.0 indicator plots automatically. There are times when it is very accurate, and times when it is less accurate. It depends on how good the plot was.
The red horizontal trendline identifies yesterday's Asian Low 1.2613. We can see that act as resistance during 06:00 in today's Asian session. Some trader's will short here at this level. There was also BAJA Bearish Divergence. Price subsequently declined.
Keeping an eye on the economic calendar, we knew that 09:00 had Euro Zone PPI. Thus the day trader with a small stop-loss will stay on the sidelines. If they did short at aforementioned resistance, they may choose to exit prior to data.
The support can be seen at/neat the 4/8th MML of 1.2573. The close of the 07:45 candle period was 1.2578.
**
We labeled the 06:00 peak price of 1.2613 (resistance area). We applied the SQ9(Price) using that as the StartPrice, with direction down.
We labeled the 09:00 pullback, when data was release. We want to wait 30-mins or thereabouts for any whipsaws to settle down. We can see the HAMA_T3 candles at work.
We also fitted price action to a fib plot (not shown).
High = July 2nd 11:00 1.2626
Low = July 2nd 14:30 1.2567
Today's 06:00 high (at resistance) was at the 78.6% fib.
The 08:45 (pullback) candle high was at the 61.8% fib (also same as 5/8th MML).
By 09:15, the trader should have seen the above compliance.
Price swims sideways for a while, but finally declines below the HAMA_T3 candles.
Entry is made below these HAMA_T3 levels. Let's use example of 09:45 opening price 1.2592.
Alternatively, we can switch to the 30-min time-frame, and monitor the RSI(4). When the reading crosses below the 50 level, entry can be made for the SELL.
One S/L option is just above the 08:45 pullback's high 1.2604 + cushion.
We saw how the fib plot's 50% level of 1.2596 held as resistance. Price approached the 4/8th MML again during 10:45, and bounced.
The HAMA_T3 held that bounce, and price re-continued its decline. The thrust down from this point landed near the SQ9's 45-degree level of 1.2557 during 12:30, ahead of U.S data release at 14:00. This means there would be exit action prior to that.
***
This example outlines S&R. Two automatically plotted, and three manually plotted. It also shows a dance around data releases.
In each of the two trade entries, the trader had an idea for take-profit target(s), based on his/her knowledge of S&R.
Each example also had a reasonable S/L level to keep R/R palatable.
Trade 1 = 1.2608/1.2578 (gross)
Trade 2 = 1.2592/1.2561 (gross)
Each had net R/R about 25/15 and ratio of 1.7:1.
***
July 4th is a holiday in the U.S. Happy 4th to those that celebrate it!
Here's a chart on the CFD "SPY", which tries to mimic the SPY Index.
We applied the AstroIndicator4 set on Jupiter and Moon. Yellow vertical lines mark the peaks and dips of the A4.
Also on chart is HAMA_T3 and RSI(4).
The daily chart is reduced to a 4-hour time-frame for trigger. The trigger uses the RSI(4) cross of the 50 level.
To filter false signals, we use the HAMA_T3.
After each A4 peak or dip.
Trigger/Direction:
After the first candle closes above or below the 50 level after crossing (this is called the cross candle), entry is made on the opening price of the next candle. This is called the entry candle. The cross of the RSI 50 level gives direction.
Filter:
The open of the entry candle must be above or below the HAMA_T3, based on direction of trade, to qualify.
S/L options include top or bottom of HAMA_T3 candle that is the same time as the cross candle. This just means it's the previous HAMA_T3 candle high/low from entry candle.
The attached example identifies a total of 8 signals, 4 of which were filtered as qualified. Here are the dates, etc.
Feb 1st 20:30 BUY 132.99 - S/L 130.74
Feb 13th 20:30 BUY 135.27 - S/L 133.52
Mar 1st 16:30 NO TRADE (SELL SIGNAL)
Mar 28th 20:30 NO TRADE (SELL SIGNAL)
Apr 12th 20:30 NO TRADE (SELL SIGNAL)
Apr 25th 20:30 BUY 138.98 - S/L 137.54
May 22nd 16:30 NO TRADE (BUY SIGNAL)
June 6th 20:30 BUY 131.39 - S/L 129.92
For each qualified signal/trade, the S/L, using previous HAMA_T3 candle, did hold. The rest of the duration of the trade would require your trade management skills.
You may elect to have specific take-profit targets or use trend indicators to assist in riding trend while trailing S/L.
The first 2 qualified BUY signals were in on the same uptrend, which peaked at 142.20 on Apr 2nd. Max gain about 780-1,000 points.
The 3rd qualified BUY signal peaked at 141.65 on May 1st for about 264 points.
The 4th qualified BUY signal is still pending at 137.33, for about +600 points. The S/L was about 200 points, therefore this position is currently at a 3:1 R/R.
***
This type of technique uses momentum (RSI cross) for trigger, and S/R (HAMA_T3) for filter and S/L.
For exits, options include using opposite RSI OB/OS.
Variations of RSI application for exit is exhibited on the 3rd qualified BUY signal of Apr 25th. Price stayed above the HAMA_T3. BAJA Bearish Divergence formed with the 2 peaks of Apr 27th and May 1st.
If you wait for price to cross back over the HAMA_T3, it would lag too much and eat up much of the profit, if not all of it. This is why most crossover systems fail.
If we want to target S&R for exit, we can use MurreyMath1.0, or measure from a significant high/low using SQ9(Price).
Attached is 4-Hour GOLD, and the chart is GMT +2.
We have simplicity, using the HAMA_T3 and trendlines for breakout levels.
Listed below are breakout levels, which of course are highs and lows previous to entry, and then the entry candle itself. Listed prices are entry and maximum gain.
Trade is managed with the assistance of the HAMA_T3, for trend guidance. S/L can be placed at any of the 4 HAMA_T3 candle levels. They are the high and low of the candle's "wicks", and the high and low of the candle's body.
We don't necessarily have wait until the price stops us out at the trailing HAMA_T3 price. Some may choose to use MurreyMath1.0 or some other type of S&R tool, and may even pair it with OB/OS levels.
1) May 31st 16:00 - June 1st 12:00 BUY $1571.60 (+ spread/cushion) $1639.60
2) June 4th 16:00 - June 7th 16:00 SELL $1608.00 (+ spread/cushion) $1559.30
3) June 11th 00:00 - June 12th 16:00 BUY $1606.90 (+ spread/cushion) $1631.50
4) June 18th 00:00 - June 20th 12:00 SELL $1607.20 (+ spread/cushion) $1547.10
5) June 27th 16:00 - June 29th 12:00 BUY $1581.80 (+ spread/cushion) $1623.60 pending
***********
Now let's take the last 2 swings for examples of plotting an exit strategy using SQ9(Price).
4) The June 19th 08:00 high of $1632.10 is the StartPrice, with direction down. On Chart 2, we can see the double-top prior to the breakout of our support level.
Price was below the 45-degree at entry, and bounced up when it reached the 90-degree. This bounce was contained by the 45-degree and the HAMA_T3.
TP at key SQ9 levels were rewarded with accuracy, with this move bottoming out at the 180-degree level.
The June 25-26th pullback was harsh and slightly penetrated the HAMA_T3 resistance highs. Some traders re-entered, exited, or joined the move-in-progress here. Others may have exited at the 135-degree to 158-degree area, where price first consolidated..
5) The 5th example (BUY), as shown on the Chart 3, the StartPrice is 1547.10, with direction up.
Breakout just before the 90-degree and bounce down at the 135-degree, which happens to be the Example 4 support level. Therefore, this was a TP level for a more conservative trader.
The bounce down from 135-degree found support at the 90-degree, which was also the top of the T3 candle.
This move is still pending, but we can see it shy away from the key 180-degree level. This is where price established resistance prior to the Example 4 downturn. Some traders exit there.
******
The RSI(4) as used here is prone to be OB/OS too quickly. Its main purpose it to spot possible divergence. Some may use the 50-level crossover for entry or exit.
Certainly, these tool lag, since they are momentum tools. In our opinion, the larger time-frame is more friendly and offers more opportunities to work with this aspect.
I believe it was J. Wells Wilder that said something to the effect "most of the money is made on the middle-third of the move".
The breakout is a S&R technique. Therefore, this example pairs both momentum and S&R.
The HAMA_T3 is a momentum tool since it is dervied from moving averages. However, in this example, it is also used as a S&R tool for S/L placement and trailing S/L.
Obviously, the SQ9 is a S&R tool, and it's used on the premise that the key levels will be respected by price movement. Used to TP and S/L, as well as understanding S&R compliance during move.
We adjusted the SQ9 for Gold and attached it here again, with the HAMA_T3.
There are a few free trailing S/L EAs. Since this operates on the 4-hour, it would behoove you to investigate your options. Or have an EA for S/L trailing programmed for you.
As usual, figure out a reasonable R/R prior to entry.
Here is a 4-hour chart with HAMA_T3 and RSI(4). We added Gann Activator Bars just to be colorful.
There are 6 of the most recent examples of S&R breakouts. The first date/time (GMT) is S&R, and the second date/time is breakout candle. We then list BUY or SELL and the breakout price which needs to be padded with spread/cushion.
1) June 6th 12:00 - June 8th 12:00 - No Trade
2) June 11th 12:00 - June 13th 12:00 BUY 1.25651
3) June 20th 16:00 - June 21st 12:00 SELL 1.26705
4) June 28th 00:00 - June 29th 00:00 BUY 1.26263
5) July 3rd 12:00 - July 4th 10:00 SELL 1.25581
We also marks RSI(4) cross of its 50 level, and can see that in most cases it is earlier than above trigger times. Using the S&R is also later than simply entering when price falls above or below the HAMA_T3 candles.
Using S&R is a way too add another qualifying condition for entry. Obviously there is lag at entry, but it eliminates some false signals.
The S&R candle should not be in the middle of the HAMA_T3.
S/L at opposite end of HAMA_T3. At entry, the initial S/L is placed using the HAMA_T3 candle just before entry.
Example: Signal 3 has June 20th S&R of 1.26358. Break of this on a SELL occurred June 21st during the 12:00 candle period. Should add cushion of about 10 pips. Entry = 1.26460.
The previous candle was 08:00. The high of the HAMA_T3 candle was 1.26979, ass can be seen in the data window. Add spread/cushion S/L = 1.27050. Risk = 70 pips. Trail S/L using high of HAMA_T3.
The breakout candle was strong, and the RSI(4) was oversold. Price consolidated thereafter as it often does after a big thrust. It pulled back on June 22nd during 12:00.
This pullback was contained by the HAMA_T3. There were more pullbacks during the continued decline. The June 28th pullback penetrated the HAMA_T3 high of 1.25050, and thus caused a stop-out.
This example had R/R of 140/70 and ratio of 2:1.
Others will use S&R or other techniques trialing S/L and for take-profit. A wide fib plot had its 61.8% retrace at 1.24634 for those that elected to exit there.
We'll try to post more of these for EUR/USD and other pairs.
Attached is a GannBox_144 plot on the 1-hour CFD “SPY”, which tries to mimic the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and about 1/10th of the S&P 500.
The starting point for the GannBox is May 1st 18:30 high 141.65, point down. The prices (height) input is 1440 and the times (width) is left on default of 360.
When price made a bottom on June 4th, plot was fitted to make that the bottom of the GannBox. As price rebounded upward, the GannBox 72 horizontal level (134.45) was the same as the 50% retrace fib level. This is also the first hit to the red 1/1_angle 0. This is one of 3 opportunities labeled with an arrow.
The June 8th hit to the 72 bounced down from 134.24 to 131.15, which was at the diagonal blue 1/2_angle6 0. Another TP option was at the yellow 1/3rd horizontal, labeled as HLine2 0, of 132.02.
The 2nd arrow points to the breakout of the red diagonal 1/1_angle 0, after the 3rd attempt. This 1/1 angle is a key change of trend line. Price closed a candle above this on June 13th at 133.21. The ascent peaked on June 19th at 135.85. This was also the horizontal 54 level of the GannBox, which is the same as a fib plot’s 61.8% retrace fib level.
The 3rd opportunity came on June 25th, when price pivoted at support on the horizontal 108 level. This is the same as the blue HLine5 0, and equivalent to 1/4th height level of the GannBox. The red diagonal 1/1_angle 0 and green sq2 0 intersected at this area. BAJA Bullish Divergence also evident.
These were 3 of the more obvious opportunities, and money management dictates final realized R/R.
Obviously, June U.S. NFP missed consensus projections, coming in at 80K vs expected 100K.
This means "risk-off". You'll learn which instruments weaken or strengthen on risk-off or risk-on.
Oil, for example will usually weaken. Therefore, currencies that swing with energy will also weaken. Examples are AUD and CAD. The USD and JPY usually strengthens in a "flight to safety".
**
EUR/USD SQ9 plot using last Friday's high 1.2691 as StartPrice, direction down. Price consolidated this morning ahead of NFP, and at the 248-degree level. Post-NFP saw decline to current 315-degree.
It may still have time today to further decline to the 360-degree of 1.2272.
**
On-the-fly test. Plot AUD/CAD 4-hour with the just posted HAMA_T3 breakout technique. Identify and draw that support trendline. We'll see if it breaks. Place reasonable S/L and measure TP options.
Here's a 30-min chart of the CFD QQQ, which tries to mimic QQQQ, which is a traded instrument in the U.S. with the top 100 Nasdaq stocks, excluding financials.
We have a simple fib plot Low = June 28th 61.53 and High = July 5th 65.23. Stoch OB/OS candles were red as price rose to that peak.
This CFD does not start trading until 14:30 GMT, which is 2 hours after the U.S. NFP release at 12:30 GMT. Therefore, price gapped down and through the HAMA_T3, today's upon open.
Price currently at the 38.2% retrace 63.82.
***
The AUD/CAD was purposely picked as a neutral pair. That is to say both currencies are sensitive to oil and usually declines in a risk-off environment.
However, if you checked the economic calendar, there was a 12:30 GMT release of CAD data, which was pro-CAD. Due to cross-pair correlation, USD/CAD went up on NFP. This temporarily weakened CAD lower, and neutralized gains by CAD in AUD/CAD.
On the 4-hour we can see the 04:00 pivot low 1.0402 to use for the break of support. Chart 1 is a zoom-in on the 30-min. This support was breached after the release of U.S. NFP.
The HAMA_T3 contained the pullback/bounce up. In this example, entry effected during 14:30 candle period, and filled at 1.0400.
S/L just above 14:00 HAMA_T3 high of 1.0408 + cushion = 1.0413
TP1 conservative would be at July 5th low 1.0381 + cushion = 1.0386. This just triggered.
Net R/R projection PRIOR to entry was 14/13. Trader would need to evaluate whether projected R/R is palatable.
The next issue in the thought process is whether or not the R/R can be better, within reason.
The answer was yes. Since there was a break of support as a reaction to NFP, a pullback occurred into the HAMA_T3 resistance. Therefore, we don't necessarily need another break of the support price as our entry point.
Think of the earlier lessons on the ABCD technique. We can enter at the break of point B, which is the support in our example here. Or, we can enter at the pullback at Point C, which is in the HAMA_T3.
The highest price on pullback was 1.0411, achieved during the 14:30 period.
If we enter there or a pip or two less, the R/R increased to 24/13 to 22/13.
Practice recognition of this during live conditions to train yourself.
Chart 2 is a split-screen of 3 charts, 15-min, the same 30-min with HAMA_T3, and a 30-min with SQ9.
The SQ9 StartPrice was 1.04398, which was this morning's 08:30 pivot high. This also illustrates that the support we used for breakout was the 22.5-degree level.
A fib plot in direction of decline (gray color) would be High = 1.04298 and Low = 12:30 1.03931. The pullback can now be seen as a 50% retrace of this plot, further justifying entry at a better price.