A-B-C-D Trade - page 225
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Gold plunged further today. Attached is updated XAU_USD 1-hour with same fib channel plot (yellow). We moved fib circle plot to:
High = Sept 19th 07:00 1824.41 Low = Sept 20th 05:00 1769.70
The move down started at 10:00 GMT after staying between circle's 78.6% and 100% rings. Price just touched FC 261.8 $1648.50, just above 261.8 ring.
EUR/USD 15-min chart with indicator SQ9(Price) set at start price 1.34179, and direction up.
This was bounce off support are per previous post. The top of that up-move was indeed at the 90-degree level (1.35340), as witnessed by the candles' close (body).
The 45-degree level also acting as S&R. The 67.5-degree level (rounded on chart to 68) is near round number 1.35000. Natural bounce down produced about 25 pips.
Let's go back to the swing leading up to support. Attached is split screen.
Chart on the right has 314.2 fib channel as resistance, and 423.6 as support.
Chart on left uses SQ9(Price) start price of 1.35582 (Sept 23rd 08:15 high). Direction down.
We can see support at the 90-degree level 1.34420. We bracketed that, along with next level down, the 117.5 (rounded to 118) level of 1.34130.
This is another S/L option using a S&R tool.
Notice the small bounce up at 1st approach to 90-degree level at 10:30, that captured about 30 gross pips to the next level up (68).
After overshoot, price did bounce up as outlined in last post. This plot's 45-degree is right at round number 1.35000.
The attached 1-hour plots:
SDC (Deviation = 1.62) at Sept 12th 04:00 to Sept 15th 13:00.
Aligned fib channel from lower channel to upper channel.
Ichimoku
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This plot starts about one week after Swiss verbal intervention.
We can see the SDC upper channel acting as resistance on 3 occasions between the plot dates. Price also crossed below the Ichimoku clouds, but hit support at lower channel.
The breakout of the SDC upper channel, to the upside, occurred Sunday Sept 18th open of week with a gap up. It was also a breakout above the Ichimoku cloud.
Since there was fear in the markets, the USD and CHF are safety assets. Therefore, with this pair, it was more choppy than others. The EFT (which is similar to HAS) fell below the zero line often as price ratcheted up.
The use of the Ichimoku provided swing traders a better guide to ride the move up. The fib channel levels were respected and acts as exit levels.
Horizontal fibs can be drawn (not shown), with the High being moved up as expansion continued. The horizontal fib extension levels explain why there were candlewicks probing above diagonal fib channel levels.
The use of the fib channel can be similar to the regular fib retracement tool. The key is to acquire the proper slope.
This can be accomplished by alignment to the SDC. Once the slope is ascertained, we can plot a Low to High.
The attached chart is the same, except we now drag the middle dot of the lower fib channel tool to Sept 15th 13:00 low .86459. The 2nd line would then be dragged to Sept 18th 21:15 high .88294.
Note that the High is the week's open. Your broker may differ.
Based on this plot, we now can see strict adherence to each fib extension level. At the latest, after the precise hits to the 31.4 and 61.8, we would understand that this plot is good, and can be trusted going forward.
We overlaid the perfect bullish gartley onto the daily chart with the indicator ZUP_v86 produced pattern.
The imperfection lies with the A-B swing, which was only a .530 retracement of Swing X-A. It should be .618.
The retracement of Swing A-B was printed as .640. If we zoom in on Point C, we can see that the candle closed at the ideal .618 level.
Point D was good and a 1.618 extension to the downside of Swing B-C.
Point D as a retrace of X-A was .750, shy of the desired .786.
The ZUP_v86 provides dotted channel lines sloped upwards.
We added Standard Deviation Channel (SDC)with plot using Low-to-Low of Point B July 12th and Point D Sept 22nd. This provides a channel sloping down.
The SDC mid-channel, which is the "mean" price level, will act as resistance.
Horizontal fib plot pictured on the 2nd chart zoom-in, uses Low = 1.35080 High = 1.39357. Point D represents a 127.2 retracement. The week ended with price rising back above the Low price.
The clouds of the Ichimoku is a leading element of the indicator.
Aug 19th -31st respected the top of the clouds as support, until the Sept 2st breakout below the clouds.
Sept 15th - 21st price action followed the bottom of the clouds as resistance.
3 economist that called the last crash, have written more in a book entitled "Aftershock". This company makes it available for shipping & handling of $5.00.
You'll also get a bunch of other free reports you may not want, and get on their mailing list.
Anyway, these people paint a dangerous road ahead, with very high unemployment, interest rates/inflation, another 25%-35% decline in real estate, and further deterioration of stock prices.
Its a very long video, and may not have a pause button.
After the video, the transcript appears in case you want to go over it. If you click out of the tab at any time (even right away), the transcript will pop up.
Newsmax's Aftershock Survival Summit
Even if you don't ask for the book, just seeing some of the charts, and listening to their point of view, is interesting.
2 plots using SDC and FC on larger time-frame charts.
1) EUR/USD daily:
SDCplots high-to-high Nov 25, 2009 to May 4, 2011
- The SDC slope is almost horizontal.
- Mid-channel (mean) about1.35626
Fib channel aligned to May 4th high and July 12th low.
- This produced 31.4% expansion practically at Sept 12th pivot low of 1.35080. Price currently at this level.
Horizontal fib plot:High = May 4th Low = July 12th
- 127.2 = 1.35364 (hit Sept 12th)
- 138.2 = 1.34151 (hit Sept 22nd)
*****
2) SPX500 4-Hour:
SDC plot: Sept 12th 12:00 and Sept 20th 15:00
Fib channel aligned to upper and lower channel of SDC.
- The Sept 21st 16:00 contained FOMC statement and breakout of SDC
- 161.8 hit Sept 23rd 12:00 period 1190.40
Horizontal fib plot:
High = Sept 22nd 00:00 1164.60 Low = Sept 22nd 12:00 1126.10
- Resistance at 138.2 extension 1111.40 hit Sept 23rd 08:00
At the start of each week, say at 21:15 GMT, the 1st hit to a Moon line will produce a bounce. The Moon line would be space at 90-degree intervals.
Stop-loss would be the 31.4% retrace. Plot fib channel from nearest Moon to Moon and position in proper direction to arrive at the 31.4 acting as the S/L.
Looks like an overwhelming percentage (90%+) of this set-up will have a bounce. Sometimes the bounce is small, but more often it is decent.
EUR/USD 30-min.