A-B-C-D Trade - page 223
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Attached is EUR/USD daily with Standard Deviation Channel plot of Nov 4th, 2010 and Mar 7th, 2011.
The lower channel line is support. Fib channels applied to both directions.
1) Updated split-screen on EUR/USD. Price retrace off of 1st revisit to 9-19 high, and pivoted at 1.36776.
Lower right chart shows support at that level provided by fibo fan's 78.6. Fibo fan (orange) and wide fib plot (white) based on last week's Low/High. Its 88.6 fan ray caught lows of 14:00 and 06:00.
Upper right chart shows bounce off 100% fib channel that coincided with left hand chart's red line that indicates previous day's (9-19) high.
Whipsaw during 12:30 period due to mixed U.S. data. Spike up hit 138.2 extension. Price returned to low of plot during 14:00 candle.
FOMC is in 1st of 2-day meeting.
2) Updated 1-hour XAU_USD that had SDC, FC, fib circle, fibo fan. Adjustment to fib arc (circle) made yesterday about 19:20. Price was at circle's 38.2 and 31.4 fib channel (yellow).
Adjustment to fibo fan low moved to Sept 15th 15:00 1772.43.
Subsequent price action respected fib circle's 50% rung/curvature, and proceed to move down and make a double bottom this morning during 05:00 period.
Notice RSI(4) moved higher after the 2nd touch of bottom. Trades starting at 07:00, as it moved above 38.2 circle rung, to SDC lower channel measured a price distance of 1782 to 1794.
SDC's lower channel line, broken during 14:00 period. Highs capped by fibo fan's 61.8.
Here's a tight plot of fib arc/circle (parameter = 58) on 1 hour XAU_USD.
High = Sept 18th 22:00 1827.93 Low = Sept 20th 13:00 1775.75
The Low moved from Sept 20th 05:00 low of 1769.70 (1)
Horizontal fib plot (yellow):
Low = Sept 19th 17:00 1770.35 High = Sept 20th 08:00 1796.07
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Price broke High of horizontal plot during 14:00 and made a 161.8 extension (1812) during 15:00. The fib circle's 61.8 rung caught that high level, and candle closed right there.
Other:
BAJA bearish divergence also had its 2nd peak at that 15:00 candle high.
Fibo fan High = Sept 18th 22:00 1827.93 Low = Sept 20th 05:00 1769.70
Fan's 78.6 ray caught high at horizontal 161.8.
Sept 16th (Friday) 19:00 high = 1811.03. This was last candle of week, and before gap at open on this week. Today's high was to this level as well as pivot lows on Sept 19th 08:00.
1-hour XAU_USD, PSQ9 with fib channel aligned to Moon 90 and Moon 135-degree.
1) Low (L1) = Sept 20th 05:00 1769.70 High = Sept 20th 08:00 1796.07
161.8 = 1812.37 (price hit 31.4% fib channel expansion 15:00 candle 1811.60.
2) Low (L2) = Sept 20th 13:00 1775.73 High = 1811.60
Price made a 38.2% retrace during 16:00 period to 1798.
3) High = 1811.60 Low (L3) = 1798.03
Sept 21st 03:00 spike up and next Doji candle hit 127.2 extension level of 1815, which intersected 31.4 fib channel.
4) Retrace off 1815 (and FC 31.4) met support at Moon 135-degree.
This is pic minutes before FOMC statement, in which they are expected to announce Operation Twist.
PSQ9 uses last week's Moon 90 and Moon 0-degree. Aligned fib channel to those 2 lines, produced FC 200 at 9-19 14:00 pivot low.
Fib plot using last 2 swings: High = 1.3215 Low = 1.36280
161.8 = 1.37793 hit 17:00 period, intersecting FC 61.8, with probe to Mars 270.
FED announced Operation Twist. They will BUY $400B in 6 to 30-year Treasury Bonds, and SELL $400B short-term bonds.
Statement also included "significant downside risks to economy", referring to current economic conditions in U.S. and Europe.
3 out of the 4 charts on split-screen are EUR/USD, with upper left-hand chart XAU_USD.
Large thrust down on both instruments after FED statement. The U.S. stock markets going down in its reaction. Dow at 11,265 and near level prior to enactment of QE2 in Nov. 2010.
The gold CFD chart, XAU_USD, contains the same fib circle plot (blue) previously posted. Its 78.6% and 100% acted very nicely as S&R during the last 24 hours.
Lower left hand chart is 15-min EUR/USD with MurreyMath_v1.0, where top prior to decline was 8/8th level. Thus far, down move bounced off 3/8th.
Upper right hand chart is same 1-hour EUR/USD with fib circle and fib channel (FC) plot. The low for plot of fib circle was placed in area of FC 161.8 fib.
We showed how price action respected the curvature of the 138.2 rung yesterday. Today's upswing that started at 12:00 ran along the circle's 200% rung, topping out at the FC100.
Lower right hand chart was previously posted with PSQ9 and FC plot. We can see a fib cluster with wide and tight plot, along with Moon 180-degree acting as current support.
****
These are observations of market movement after important data. Day traders not specializing in trading the news, are recommended to stay on the sidelines.
We note the various S&R respected by the market and use that knowledge going forward after things calm down.
EUR/USD continued plunge after very brief pullback. However with these situations, price could have whipsawed back up. Therefore, if trader wanted to trade during a more docile environment, things calmed down a bit later.
Attached is 15-min with session colors.
High = 22:30 1.36003 Low = 01:15 1.35480
Sept 22nd day's opening price/Asian High = 1.35834 (arrow). This is virtually the same as the wide plot's 127.2 (black).
After pivot low, price made the 1st revisit to day's high during the 01:30 period. This is the bounce trade (SELL) opportunity, as discussed many times here, including a day or two ago along with providing a script called DayBorders.
We marked 2 TP levels:
TP1) at Low of 1.35480 = +35 gross pips
TP2) at 127.2 extension of 1.35338 = +50 gross pips
S/L tight just above red 78.6 1.35891 + 5 pips cushion = 1.35941.
R/R TP1 = 30/11 and 2.7:1
R/R TP2 = 45/11 and 4:1
If you have patience and wait for these opportunities, we think you will be more calm and less of a gambler. These set-ups come along frequently while the volatility is manageable.
Note: Day's open is always 00:00 midnight GMT.
European open sees shorting and test of support.
Chart posted with fib circle and fib channel can now move FC from alignment with SDC's mid and lower channel......to lower channel and equal distance below. Drag 1st line's middle dot to align with lower channel.
This produced 261.8, which has been support since 03:00. Watch this, along with Asian Low of 1.35264.
Similar to bounce off Asian High, there is usually a natural bounce off Asian Low. Price just bounced off 1.35924 to 1.35511. May make another run at low.
Data 07:00 - 07:30 had French and German PMI come in lower than projected. Next is overall EU PMI at 08:00.