A-B-C-D Trade - page 150
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Attached chart is continuance of EUR/USD. We left off with the BAJA bearish divergence on May 11th 09:00, and its subsequent extension to the 161.8.
The pair proceeded to pullback and respect the PSQ9 Moon 180-degree as support, before finally making it to the 200% on May 12th 10:00. This pivot low was also at the aforementioned fib channel's 423.6% (white), PSQ9 Mars 270-degree, and Moon 135-degree.
A 1-Hour BAJA bullish divergence registered at this bottom as well. The 161.8 is the 1st dip, and the 200 is the 2nd dip.
The bounce up halted at the 50% retrace fib (pink) of 1.42723 on May 12th 17:00. Notice that this is also area where Mars 0-degree and Moon 225-degree intersect.
USOIL fib plot; Low = May 9th 98.68 and High = May 11th 01:00 104.56
138.2 = 96.43
161.8 = 95.05
As mentioned on the last USOIL post, the top is the FE 100 from the ABC plot as shown on the attached 1-hour chart. The reversal down consolidated at the Low price level, prior to extending to the 161.8 on May 12th 11:00.
This bottom registered a BAJA bullish divergence, with 15-min EFT trigger entry price of 95.40 + spread. Low pivot was 95.20, and we add cushion to arrive at stop-loss of 95.00.
The bounce up made it to the 50% retrace fib of 99.88. The 38.2% retrace fib = 98.77.
Reward/risk ratios:
to 38.2% = 3.25 /.40 and 8 to 1
to 50% = 4.38/.40 and 11 to 1
****
XAU_USD 1-hour chart illustrates the top as 78.6% retrace of A-D. We left off at the 50% retrace from D-78.6. It has subsequently hit just above the 78.6% retrace level at 1478. Notice the HEMa stayed red through pullback en route down.
The Mars 180-degree and Moon 45-degree intersects at this bottom May 12th 10:00. And yes, you guessed it, a BAJA bullish divergence was there. The retrace back up was to the 61.8% of 1508 on May 12th 17:00.
The moves were gross $46 down and $30 up.
Reviewing entry, draw a vertical line at 2nd peak or dip. Switch chart to the 15-min interval. Look at the EFT and count 1-hour past vertical line. After the first histogram in opposite direction closes, entry is effected at open of next candle.
This trigger is not based on above or below the zero line. Example: on short, the EFT's histogram bars will still be above the zero line. When the bars change from thick to thin, this is the cross-over. We changed the color of the thin bars for better recognition. All of this has been covered. Please go back and review, if it is unclear.
The short entry price was $1524, minus any slippage. Trading fully to the bottom of $1478 was about +$46, minus spread and any slippage.
S/L above high pivot of 1526.60 + 1.00 = 1527.60.
Risk = $3.60
Reward = $40.00
Ratio = 11 to 1
We'll let you calculate the move up.
Attached is a 4-Hour chart with the PSQ9 and divergence tools. We have ABC swings of Apr 1st 08:00/Apr 8th 12:00/ Apr 18th 12:00.
The plot produced levels at the FE 100 and FE 127 that corresponded with the Mars 270-degree and 0-degree. (Note that 0-degree is the same as 360-degree)
We place white "X" marks at these 2 peaks, and at the 2 peaks on the RSI(4), along with pink trend lines to illustrate the divergence.
The retrace has made it to the 61.8% fib thus far, and hit the Mars 0-degree line precisely. When we zoom in on Swing C, we can see that the candle bodies closed above this same line. Since these planetary lines are not flat (horizontal), this further confirms their uncanny accuracy as support and resistance.
From the top, an ABC plot would have the bottom as the FE 100. This reversal moved 4 Mars levels for a full cycle.
The update on this 1-hour chart shows pivot high during the 13:00 candle, marked with white "X". It went on to make a 161.8 extension of 1514 at 07:00.
This up move, with the aforementioned BAJA bullish divergence at its bottom, traveled from Mars 180 to Mars 270 (bold red horizontal lines). This top is also the 78.6% retrace of 1st move down. The 138.2 level of 1509 was reached prior to European session and high-impact data.
The BAJA BUY entry price was $1482 (15-min trigger) minus spread & any slippage. Gross move = $36.00, with nominal stop-loss that made this a 10:1 R/R or better.
Updated 1-hour EUR/USD chart attached. As mentioned, the May 12th 10:00 bottom was a 200% extension, which also formed a BAJA bullish divergence.
We snapped a pic of the 50% retrace to the upside hitting the Mars 0-degree, which became the High for the fib plot. From there it made a 61.8 retrace, before extending to the 138.2 of 1.4335.
This level is also area of fib channel 314.2% (PI), and Moon 270-degree. The break of Point B was spurred by data.
It has since bounced down to the High, which is also the Moon 225-degree and Mars 0-degree.
edit add: left out one of the best parts. We can clearly see the inverted Head & Shoulders
As we approach the end of the week, let's look at the updated EUR/USD from earlier today. We add back the yellow fib plot that was replaced by labels pointing to the 138.2 extension to the upside, hit during the 08:00 candle (1-hour chart).
The way our fib retracement tool is configured, we can see the 138.2% & 161.8% extension levels in BOTH directions of a fib plot. The high/low of course is Point A to Point B. The pullback, as mentioned, was 61.8% prior to extension.
The highest probability when the pullback is 61.8%, is an extension to the 138.2. If the swings are labeled ABCD, then A-B = C-D. This simply means that the number of pips for both legs are equal.
If pullback is 38.2%, then likely extension is to the 161.8%. All of this was covered before, please go back if it is unclear.
After topping out at the 138.2 of 1.4335, pair dropped down past Point A and just hit the 138.2% of 1.4064 to the downside, as illustrated on the attached chart. That's a gross move of about 270 pips in 8 hours.
Here's the update on the 4-hour chart recently posted. We added the fibo fan pointing down from the High/Swing A on Apr 19th 20:00 GMT price of .90152.
The aforementioned bottom was a 200% extension and BAJA bullish divergence on May 4th 12:00. Mars 180-degree also lent support.
The pivot was on May 6th 12:00 high of .87976, also met by fibo fan's 61.8. The pullback was 38.2%, support at the fibo fan's 50%.
Pair went on the make a 161.8 extension just now, May 13th during 16:00 candle. Notice fibo fan's 88.6 and next level of Mars 180-degree. This is also a horizontal 78.6% retrace from the Point A to bottom plot (not shown).
I knew I had something useful for your work somewhere.Notice the fan break at.786 right on the money.
Thank you Kevin, we'll give it a look. We like S&R and in particular fib indicators. Very psychedelic, had to put on sun glasses in order to see what's happening. Like inclusion of longer term channel (mouse over thick line).
Here's one we've been meaning to post. It plots fibs and risk/reward for each profit level in upper left-hand corner. Alert seems to be malfunctioning.
Riding EUR/USD now to upside. Cheers
Further comments on fibocal_v31 indicator. We attach split screen 30-min charts, with indi applied on left chart. Right chart has PSQ9, but plots fibs using lower alternative for high.
We can see EUR/USD up against resistance of of 38.2% retrace fib (yellow) and re PSQ9 Mars 90-degree line, at price of 1.4154.
Bottom was BAJA bullish divergence on 01:00 candle. Note indi will replot fibs and is different from 1st post, as most do so.
Our entrance of course was better than indi suggestion due to BAJA technique. Choose entry as you please.