A-B-C-D Trade - page 204
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Here is a RSI divergence indicator, ind_DivPeakTroughRSI_SW_v1.
The attached template uses RSI setting of 4-Period to match our BAJA Divergence technique.
It's not perfect, often missing formations seen by the naked eye, and/or not pinpointing exact high/low, but it can be of assistance. It also recognizes "reverse divergence".
RSI-TC (has alarm)
ind_DivPeakTroughRSI_SW_v1
Ehler's Fisher Transform - Histogram version
We previously posted another divergence indicator: Complex_pair_Divergence_v1.0
XAU_USD 30-min with PSQ9 and BAJA Bearish Divergence
APF:
Handle = Aug 22nd 07:00 high 1895..38
Upper corner = Aug 22nd 22:30 high 1912.32
Lower corner = Aug 22nd 12:30 low 1857.66
AML indicator for interior fibs.
Horizontal fib extension plot (white):
Low = Aug 19th 14:00 1837.32 High = Aug 22nd 07:00 1895.38
127.2 = 1911.17
Recently posted RSI divergence indicator DPTRSI set on 4-period, identified Aug 22nd 23:30 candle as 2nd peak (1911.83) of bearish divergence. 1st peak at Aug 22nd 06:30.
MML 5/8th 1906.25
PSQ9 Moon 0-degree = 1905
MFI declining ahead of turn at top.
Arrows point to price adherence with APF S&R.
Bottom of Aug 23rd 19:30 ($1823) at lower fork line white 161.8 extension fib, and Moon 180-degree. Lurking bounce positions at bottom.
Subsequent bounce met median line (center line) just now at 02:00 candle period.
Here's the NAS100 which tries to mimic the NASDAQ 100 Futures.
Fib extension upside (not shown) to mark top: Low = Aug 23rd 12:30 2048 High = 17:00 2107
138.2 = 2130 Actual price reached 2129.
Recently posted RSI divergence indicator set on 4-period identified 19:00 as 2nd peak of bearish divergence.
Fibo fans (orange) criss-cross at 21:00 entry, which followed 20:00 doji. MML 4/8th (blue) right there at 2125. Entry filling 2126, with S/L at 2135.
Retrace fib plot: Low = 23rd 13:00 2048 High = 23rd 20:00 2129
38.2% = 2098
50% = 2089
61.8% = 2079
Targeting 50% fib plus spread and cushion would = 2193
Reward/Risk = $9.00/$33.00 R/R Ratio = 3.6:1
Price currently at the 23.6% fib of 2110.
Can take conservative exit, or partial and trend balance, moving S/L to at least break-even (B/E).
HAS candles on 30-min chart still red. Keep eye on MML 3/8th 2094 same as wide 50% (gray).
Note alternative low for retrace plot is Aug 23rd 00:00 2037. Its 50% of 2083 is about the same as the 07:00 pivot High 2082.
CFD USOIL 4-Hour
This is an example where we knew the location for the corners of the Andrew's Pitchfork. To find the handle, which was not obvious, we "fitted" price action.
Upper corner = Aug 17th 12:00 high 88.96
Lower corner = Aug 9th 00:00 low 75.68
Fit price action hit to median line (center line). This was done with the Aug 19th 04:00 candle. The handle was moved around until this was ascertained, landing at July 14th 16:00 low 94.53.
The APF creates a trend line (upper fork line), and in this case a set-up for a SELL.
The attached split-screen has 4-hour chart with the APF on the left, and 1-hour chart with 127.2 extension on the right.
We can see the RSI divergence indicator trigger BAJA bearish divergence on the 4-hour at the upper corner. The subsequent 1-hour BAJA was at the upper fork line.
1-hour chart on right had extension plot:
Low = Aug 19th 07:00 80.00 High = Aug 22nd 18:00 84.78.
The 127,2 = 86.26 which was basically the top.
A lot of interesting developments ahead of the FED meeting in Wyoming Friday.
A big story is GOLD plunging. Opinions range from the Shanghai Gold Exchange raising the require margin, to rumors that P.I.I.G.S. nations selling gold to raise money.
Attached is a 1-hour of XAU_USD with session colors and MML. We also plotted a trend line the other day which was broken.
Trend line (TL): Low = Aug 18th 00:00 1783.86 Low = Aug 22nd 12:00 1857.66.
Break of TL occurred on Aug 23rd European open 07:00 period. The subsequent pullback was small and contained by TL.
If we are waiting to trade during today's European session, we would look for a fib plot.
High = Aug 23rd 15:00 1887.78 Low = Aug 23rd 19:00 1823.79
Pullback was 50% during 02:00 hour. Break of Low was during 13:00 period. Break of Asian Low (1837) happened during 12:30 period.
Negative German data at 09:00 and positive U.S. data at 12:30 and 14:00.
Price made a 200% extension, bounced and now retesting that level of 1760.
Previous XAU_UAD chart with PSQ9 and APF saw pullback to median line prior to break of lower fork line and Moon 135-degree at 14:00.
When applying ABC tool, saw consolidation/pause at the FE 127.2, and the FE 161.8 = 1750.
Agree with analyst on bloomberg that support is Aug 4th pre-S&P downgrade price at about $1682.
Attached is continuance of 30-min EUR/USD chart with PSQ9 and lime green bracket of Sunday Range.
Aqua blue fib plot had been posted. We needed a more recent swing for plot (pink) that can be of use for intra-day trading.
Low = Aug 23rd 05:00 1.43631 High = Aug 23rd 09:00 1.44989
This was most recent largest swing. Adherence confirmed by price action since that swing.
If trader waits out data at 09:00 through 14:00, it would result in recognition of BAJA bearish divergence.
1st peak = 10:00 1.44746 RSI(4) 80
2nd peak = 14:00 1.44803 RSI(4) 71
Notice imperfection of RSI divergence indicator DPTRSI, which had identified peaks of 09:30 and 12:30. We do see this inaccuracy across all of the divergence indicators.
In all fairness, the real 2nd peak when assessing by the naked eye was at 13:30 candle. However, there are 2 aspects that affect this.
1) Trader is waiting out data to about 14:30.
2) Using the 13:30 as the 2nd peak still cleared the pop up at 14:00, as the candle must close prior to entry. In any event it was only 3 pips higher than the 13:30 high.
Mars 90-degree and fibo fan's 38.2 also at 14:00 top.
Using a 15-min EFT trigger had entry at the open of 14:45 price of 1.44391. That candle also broke pivot low of 1.44264, which means trader could have opted to enter at break.
Price declined to the 78.6 retrace fib (pink) of 1.43922. Blue 50% fib and 61.8 fibo fan ray (green) also there.
A tighter retrace plot using Low = 08:00 1.43732 had its 78.6 at 1.43961. When switching chart to 15-min, we can see the candle bodies sit right on that fib.
Conservative exit level was 12:00 pivot low of 1.44264. Price respected both retrace plots 50% there.
This indicator self adjusts. Right now, per attached, the 1-hour measures move from the top on Aug 22nd $1912.32.
The current pivot low of 1741 is the 3600-degree level. A bounce up occurred and now low is being retested. The 3600 is a 10 multiple of 360, which is significant.
If we look at the PSQ9 chart (not shown), we can see the decline go through 8 levels of the Moon lines, which denotes 2 cycles since each line is 1/4 of a 360 cycle.
The start price is Aug 22nd 1912.32. Instructions on how to use this indicator is in the Gann Is The Man thread.
Settings:
Prices (Height) = 36000
Times (Width) = 360
Double click lower left hand corner of box. A small blue arrow will be highlighted. Drag that to start point. If chart doesn't move, just change time-frame and switch back.
Attached is 1-hour chart. The blue horizontal lines are 1/4th levels. There was a significant pivot at the blue 36 level, and now price is sitting at the blue 72 level.
That pivot at the 36 occurred at the half-way point between the vertical 1/8th marker (0 to 18). This was noticed in our previous work with the GannBox_144.
Mouse over diagonal lines to get labels of angles.
Key is to use a start point that is significant. Gann often used historical highs and lows.
Retrace 38.2 = 1743.62 just hit
1750 is FE 161.8 on decline.
Forgot to mentioned that the CME also increased required margin to trade gold futures.
Split-screen chart of XAU_USD attached. Left is 15-min with fib plot based on Asian High to Low. Retrace limited to 1746 from 1729.
Breakout of Asian Low confirmed during 08:30 period and made a 161.8 extension.
Other plots, including swing from late Asian to Early Euro results in same bottom. Directional plot from 1746 pullback to 08:30 Low 1724, had its 161.8 at 1702, which was precise bottom..
Chart on right is continuance of GannBox_144 plot. The blue 1/2 angle4 caught bottom.
And........ we salute the Iconic Steve Jobs who announced his retirement as CEO of Apple, but remains as Chairman.