The London Open - page 98
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Global rate cut..The question being will the banks pass it onto the consumer, as mentioned in the room this am.
Its all about confidence!!
Dear Pipsters;
I got up early today, in fact I was at my pc 0530 GMT, bleary eyed but ready for action. Rationale, crude has done several nice little 100 pips moves at opening in Frankfurt. What happened this morning it went earlier again, so missed it and then crude just dribbled along. I did not take at trade until nearly 9am and then for only 66 which on recent performances was quite poor. As I was not certain of direction I looked elsewhere and with all the turmoil in the equity markets traded Dax short +46 and ftse short +124. I had exited DAX too early and held on to ftse. Had a spot of breakfast and returned and then went long ftse at 4398 and dax at 5046. Got some nice pips +89 and +58 (147 overall), and had just closed my positions and guess what, DJ took off in to outerspace taking ftse and dax along for a ride. Nervermind no complaints from me after my shocking start. That was the good news, now time for a laugh, but I shouldn't really.
Because gold was sitting on the MA's and I had draw a break in, who do you think was short gold this morning, without even looking at the 1 hour. Yes, you guessed it in one me. In the blink of an eye I was down 15 pips and not looking too clever. Dan said once, if you think you are in the wrong direction just get out, and he also said about doubling up. So I went long but at twice the leverage! This could have ended in tears but fortunately for me I ended up making 78 pips, but with -33 short. So I came up at +45 with double leverage. Not recommended and I was a little sweaty! I was also short Swissie, my own call at 1.1370, ended up losing -9.
My other funny story this morning was that I have been calling crude lower, skype to Pimp - watch crude. Finally I think I have my moment, got an entry, crude begins to move and I am the Daddy, oh yes. No, No, No....crdue stops mid air, does a nice little switcharoo and I managed to closed out for +2 pips. See what happens when you want something to happen!
I am off to do the ironing and then on to watch my youngest play soccer. The sun in shining and I added a lovely 386 pips to the tin this morning, mostly indices, which is different, but a fab day nonetheless given the fact I was thinking gold short at 530am!
Have fun fellow pipsters and I will catch up later.
Red Faced Indie Rockie
Nicely done Sir Rockdrive! I sat on the sidelines today, even though I was in the live room at the beginning. Watched gold creep up, thinking should I, shouldn't I - getting that feeling you get when you just got into a trade you shouldn't have... without even having any trades on yet! So decided to just walk away and rather come back tomorrow - once more, with feeling.
Hope others made good pips today!!
SF412
Good morning all.
I hope you are all having a cracking week in what so far, has been a pretty tough condition for all.
I do hope some of you managed to get on the USDCHF trade mentioned yesterday lunchtime. There was a nice 130 pips up for the taking there.
Sorry about the targeting of 1.1200. It only went down to 1.1205. Must try and work on that.
Not a huge amount of action to report overnight.
Gold has retraced part of it’s big drive of yesterday, whilst Oil was pretty flat all day in ‘just’ a couple of hundred pip range.
This morning looks quite interesting with EURUSD being positioned in exactly the opposite formation as our Swissie trade of yesterday.
The 15m & 60m 20ema’s are above the 60m 50sma, in correct order and so close to that bit fat 4hr 20ema..
Without even looking at the shorter term I can see this giving a good account of itself IF it breaks north of 1.3710.
If it breaks 1.3750 then there is a possible 150 pips up to the 4hr 50 at 1.3900.
On the other hand, IF it doesn’t manage to hold then we might have a shorting opportunity through the support level at around 1.3600
Without really taking into account the news or Gold or Crude that seems to be the best set-up at the moment.
This whole correlation thing actually seems to dropping off a little.
Gold is headed back to $1000 whilst Crude is going to $60.
That doesn’t make this strategy null and void, it just means for now, until we find another leading indicator, then we must simply try to trade what we see.
Maybe Gold is still leading Euro and we will see them both rally heavily together, who knows?
Have a good day.
Good morning all.
I do hope some of you managed to get on the EURUSD trade(s) mentioned yesterday morning. There was a nice 120 pips on offer there.
Alright, it was not so easy as the Swiss of Wednesday but with the double-edged sword one could have picked up 70 going long on the break of the 1.3710, and then later, a short on the break of that support line we drew on the chart at around the 1.36 level for another 50 or so, which one could still be holding.
Lots of action to report overnight.
Having shorted Oil through the pivot at $83 yesterday and closed for 40, jokingly said “watch it go to $80 now. What did it do? Grrrrrrrr. Hate it when that happens.
Currently trading at $79.20.
Gold had retraced part of it’s big drive of Wednesday, but is now in a very dominant position to take-on $1000 in the forthcoming weeks.
Currently trading at $915 I will be buying any bounces off the 60m 20.
The correlation indicator needs tweaking a bit me thinks. EVERYTHING is going down.
Those who have never read my early works will possibly know the best markets to trade when this is happening.
Those who do will know that when EURUSD and USDCHF are trading in the same direction then EURCHF is a good pair to trade.
When EURUSD and USDJPY move the same way then EURJPY is the horse to be on. GBPUSD and USDJPY moving in similar fashion will see GBPJPY move aggressively and so on.
This morning actually doesn’t look quite as interesting as it has all been smashed into by the eastern massive.
The best set-up for me is the Swiss once again.
Forgetting correlation the Swiss is destined, in my opinion to hit the weekly pivot at around the 1.1150 with people pumping money into Swiss Francs and Gold.
The only issue I have here is an entry. Ideally I am looking for an entry around 1.1260 but since I am once again writing from the car I don’t have any internet connection and can’t see anything other than my 60m chart, but that’s the plan.
Have a good morning
Hi All
Did anyone in the UK see "Paul Merton in India" on telly last week?
Well, Delhi is overrun with errant, cheeky street monkeys which terrify the locals so they have The Monkey Squad, government employees to chase them away - yep, bigger "take no prisoners" Langur monkeys that steam in shouting abuse and send them packing. They were real mean dudes who strolled in and loved their job. Those cheeky little monkeys just scarpered to the next neighbourhood mind you, and then the heavies have to go down the road and start again.
Ooo ooo ooo Monkey Magic.
Hi all
Sorry been vvv busy so havent manged to blog recently...
Trust you are all well.
D
PS will be back blogging vvv soon
Evening Pipsters;
Apologies for not being around from Friday. I have had my head down, trying to avoid a spanking from Mrs Rockie.....oh the shame. On Friday, while most of you were playing the London open, I was, I am afraid, battling with cleaning implements. Somehow, Mrs Rockie thinks as I 'work' from home I should help with the domestic chores. Enough I hear you cry....well I'm crying thats for sure.
Last week I had somewhat of a fantastic week. I closed at 943 pips. Over 700 pips were attained on the Indices. In fact in a single day I hit 610 pips (+431 Dow 9184 - 8753 short closed for price action / FTSE +68 4302 - 4234 as with Dow / and crude 86.38-85.18 +120 nice pips to take). I did take more pips on crude +56, but I got greedy as I had >1000 pips in sight and got carried away and forgot my rules in the chase. My last two trades were Dax -24 and Dow -32. I should have just packed up and been satisfied.
Today was another interesting day for the patient pip hunter. I was late joining in this morning. So I sat back for a bit but had spotted DAX 252 cci was nearly at 0/0. Got in early and it fell back and I managed to get out for -4. I shorted ftse 4130 - 4076 +54 pips which was a bit strange as FTSE seemed to be the leading indice this morning. One other crappy trade and one for the spread companies, I was long WTI Oil and had a nice 60 pip stop in place well below the MA's. Got stopped out on a massive two directional spike by 2 pips, so got hit for -62 pips, WTI did go long about 2 candles later by over 150 pips. Don't you just hate it when the Sheriff of Pippingham is in town! I was thinking pretty crappy thoughts so took a short break. Got on board and could see the DAX 252 above 0/0 took the trade at 4856 and exited at 4933 +77 (rationale was two red heiken on 5m and next candle although green not much momentum). Also got myself in the Dow, but I waited for the initial break and the retracement after the opening and entered at 8805 and put limit order in closed at 8905 for +100 pips. Could have, should have and all those other thoughts at Dow sailed in to 9000 territory. Happy with my late recovery and adding pips to a tin that was looking mighty empty at mid-day. Days Total +165. My Lesson - Keep the focus and don't think if you make good pips that the market will be easy on you if you break the rules or get greedy. Constant Vigilance
Not sure this is the break upwards the market want or need. But today was a toughie for me and perhaps just the wake up to keep my bigfat head on the right level.
Fallible Rockie
Hi All Did anyone in the UK see "Paul Merton in India" on telly last week? Well, Delhi is overrun with errant, cheeky street monkeys which terrify the locals so they have The Monkey Squad, government employees to chase them away - yep, bigger "take no prisoners" Langur monkeys that steam in shouting abuse and send them packing. They were real mean dudes who strolled in and loved their job. Those cheeky little monkeys just scarpered to the next neighbourhood mind you, and then the heavies have to go down the road and start again. Ooo ooo ooo Monkey Magic.
Where are you hiding Ms White Bikini...............time for telly, but not time for trading....tut, tut, tut.....
Me thinks you are slacking....get back with the programme.
Prefect Rockie
Morning all
As I type we are seeing some early moves in crude and gold.
Crude is breaking down and has broken the 15 min 20 ma on the 5 min chart. If anyone is short a target price of $78 would be where we expect some support with the hourly moving averages. We above the pivot and the hourly moving averages have crossed. This is a bearish sign and if the price holds around the figure we may see an attack of the four hourly 20 ma. If this breaks we have a big upside potential to the four hourly 50 ma.
Gold has made lower lows on the 5 min chart and looks like it wants to re test the lows at $834, however there is not much price action. If it breaks the hourly 20 ma, we may see a play up to R1 at 869.
EURUSD is overbought on the shorter term, 5 min chart. It looks like it is tired and we may see a slight retracement back to the hourly 20 ma. It is worth looking at the bigger picture here, as we can see with the angle of the four hourly 20 & 50 ma they may cross. The upside medium term target would be 1.3980
Cable is also overbought on the shorter term charts and we may see a pullback if the 5 and 15 min 20 ma can cross. For the medium term, a target price of 1.7716 is available. Remember to buy after red and sell after green.
Have a great day
D