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GBP/USD Squeeze Won't Go Beyond 1.35 But The Context Matters
I’m struck at the enthusiasm of all and sundry to tell us that European and US growth rates will hardly be affected by the UK post-referendum slowdown.
That flies in the face of the increased correlation of major economies’ growth rates in an ever more connected world. You can’t have it both ways – if the world thrives post-Brexit, the UK won’t suffer that badly. Particularly if there is a strong fiscal policy response.
For now, the sterling short-squeeze goes on. I doubt GBP/USD can get through 1.35, but the context matters. The June 24 peak was 1.5020 (albeit in middle-of-the-night liquidity) and the low is just above 1.28, so a 50% retracement of the fall would be around 1.39....
SocGen maintains a short GBP/USD from 1.3750*
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