GBP/USD forecast - page 11

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The GBPUSD is not going anywhere for now, it may continue oscillating around the 1.3200 level.
 

EY ITEM Club slashes UK 2016 GDP forecast to 1.9% vs 2.6% prior


The latest forecast for UK financial services from Ernst & Young

The Financial Services arm of the UK EY ITEM Club is out with their summer outlook. It's slashed growth forecasts due to;

"The recent decision to leave the EU has clouded the prospects for the economy and for financial services, just when the fundamentals were looking positive.  Consequently the latest ITEM Club Outlook for financial services presents a less certain picture than my first Outlook as EY's UK FS Managing Partner six months ago.

For financial services, much of the uncertainty surrounds the timetable for the UK to exit the EU, the manner in which it will do so, and the terms that can be agreed. Very few will be making substantial decisions until a clearer view emerges.  For now it's the second order effects of the referendum result that firms are contending with - notably the impact on the UK economy and consumer confidence." says Omar Ali at EY.

Last month, the main ITEM Club UK outlook saw them cutting GDP to 1.9% from 2.3% for 2016, and 2.6% to 0.4% for 2017.

 

GBPUSD makes a break for it...

Falls below intraday support...

The GBPUSD is making a mini break to downside. That move took the price below the 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart. Earlier in the North American session the price held against resistance the 200 bar MA (green line) and 50% (see prior post).  The low has tested recent low from the NA session.  There is other longer MAs (100/200 hour MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart) between 1.3167-77. 

A break...yes...sellers feel better but they are about to run into more support.
 
100 pips back. Gbp is as manipulated as hell
 
nbtrading:
100 pips back. Gbp is as manipulated as hell
It is insane what is done with it
 
Significant growth marked the pound against the dollar on Tuesday. So the British currency fully recovered its losses from the previous session and with a maximum for the day at 1.3364 has breached the first resistance at 1.3342. Short-term expectations are still in favor of the pound. In this case the pair can make a second test at a key level 1.3496. The Tuesday session opened at rate of 1.3174 and bullish trend was leading from the start. Finish line was crossed at a price of 1.3353.
 
Pound/dollar had upward momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3364. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing of 1.3400/20, but I mainly stay in the camp of bears yet. First support is seen at 1.3300. A clear break below that area could lead the price to neutral trade zone testing 1.3250 or lower.
 
Key levels to watch for today:
Support: 1.3051; 1.2790;
Resistance: 1.3342; 1.3496.
 
1.28 here we come
 

More BoE Easing In November; EUR/GBP En-Route To 0.90

As expected the Bank of England (BoE) delivered a substantial easing package today, including a 25bp Bank Rate cut to 0.25%, GBP70bn QE (GBP60bn government bond and GBP10bn corporate bond purchases) and a new Term Funding Scheme (TFS).

BoE maintained a very dovish stance indicating a further rate cut later this year to the effective lower bound at above but close to zero. BoE also stressed that it can do more QE (both gilts and corporate bonds) if needed.

We expect BoE to cut the Bank Rate by 15bp to 0.10% and to increase its buying of both gilts and corporate bonds at the November meeting.

We expect weak GDP growth, monetary policy and flows to weigh on the GBP in the coming quarters. We forecast EUR/GBP to rise to 0.90 in 6M. Longer term we expect EUR/GBP to stabilise to some extent given attractive valuations. We target 0.88 in 12M.

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