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AUD/USD: decline continues Current trend This week the pair AUD/USD has been trading in the downward channel. Slight rise at the beginning of the week, triggered by positive business activity index in the Australian manufacturing sector for November, has shifted to the decline at the level of 0.8310 (the lows since 2010). The strongest pressure on the Australian currency was caused by poor data on GDP for Q3. This index amounted only to 0.3%, which was against expectations. Currently, the pair is trading in the narrow range of 0.8410-0.8355, as market participants are waiting for the data on American labor market. It is expected that the number of jobs outside agricultural sector will increase, which may result in strengthening in the USD and the decline in quotes to 0.8300 and 0.8250. Otherwise, correction to the level of 0.8480 may take place. Support and resistance Technical indicators give mixed signals, which show market uncertainty in advance of the important news release. Bollinger bands are turning downwards. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines have also directed downwards. Support levels: 0.8355 and 0.8250. Resistance levels: 0.8410 and 0.8480. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 0.8250 after breakdown of the level of 0.8355. Long positions with the take profit of 0.8480 can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 0.8410.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: Pound will continue to go down with the target of 1.5410 Current trend At the beginning of the last week the USD had considerably weakened against the major currencies; however favourable US labor market data provided support to the American currency. Nonfarm payroll has exceeded the forecast and the pair GBP/USD fell to the key support level and the local lows of 1.5600. Last week trading session closed at the level of 1.5570. At this week opening session the pair continued to move down by inertia and is now trading at the level of 1.5550. We do not expect any important UK or US news today, which news that the pair will consolidate and high volatility is unlikely. Support and resistance It is expected that the pair will undergo minor upward correction and then will move in the sideways channel. Next key support level is 1.5410, which is also a bottom limit of the downward channel and the local lows of August 2013. In the medium-term it is likely that the pair will go down to the target levels of 1.5410 and 1.5275. Support levels: 1.5550, 1.5500, 1.5470, 1.5410, 1.5300 and 1.5275. Resistance levels: 1.5600, 1.5630, 1.5670,1.5720, 1.5750, 1.5790, 1.5875 and 1.5910. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with stop-loss above the level of 1.5600 and take profit at 1.5410.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Brent: the price goes down Current trend Crude oil Brent continues to decline. The price has already dropped below the level of $66 per barrel, which is the lowest level over the past five years. The main reasons of decline do not vary: these are the increase in production and decrease in demand. Additional pressure on the oil prices was caused by the forecast from Morgan Stanley analysts. They predict that next year oil prices will go down to 43 USD per barrel. Most experts believe that Brent price is not going to rise significantly in the near future. Today, on 9 December, economic calendar does not contain macro-economic statistics, which can change dynamics of Brent. Therefore, technical analysis will be of higher importance. Support and resistance Following long-term decline, the pair may temporarily go up as part of correction. On the four-hour chart the price has broken down the bottom line of "Bollinger bands", which confirms probability of the short-term upward correction to the level of 66.70. However, in general, downtrend will prevail. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are increasing. Resistance levels: 66.00, 66.70, 67.52 and 68.70. Support levels: 65.00, 64.00, 63.00 and 62.00. Trading tips Buy positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 66.00 with the target of 66.70. Following steady breakdown of the level of 66.70, the “bulls” will try to break down the level of 67.62. From this level large sellers will become active. It is recommended to place pending sell order (Sell Limit) at the level of 67.62.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD EUR/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below under the cloud, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. With the help of the Bullish impetus the pair has entered the cloud, upper border of which becomes resistance level (1.2416). Tenkan-sen line (1.2369) is the closest support level.
EUR/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, however the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The pair has been corrected to the Tenkan-sen line once again, and Kijun-sen becomes resistance level (1.2422). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level (1.2230).
Key levels Support levels: 1.2369, 1.2230. Resistance levels: 1.2416, 1.2422. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see trend reversal pattern, however the pair is still trading within the cloud. Long positions should be placed above 1.2416 with targets at 1.2480. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: the pair's correcting today Current trend Today, the USD/JPY is correcting after the decline at the beginning of the week. Negative data from Japan catalysed the price growth. In October, mechanical engineering production dropped by 4,9% at an annual rate and by 6,4% at a monthly rate, respectively, which led to the growth of quotes to the level of 118.80. The growth may continue up to the level of 119.50 (the middle line of the Bollinger bands indicator). November's statistics on US retail sales can support the American dollar. This indicator is expected to rise and reach the level of 0,4%. Support and resistance Technical indicators are producing opposite signals. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed upwards. Support levels: 118.80, 119.50. Resistance levels: 118.00, 117.57. Trading tips This situation suggests that long positions with the target of 119.50 should be opened in case the price breaks the level of 118.80. Short positions will be relevant if the price drops below the level of 118.40. Their target would be the level of 117.57.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the upward channel Current trend This week, the currency pair GBP/USD is traded in the upward channel. On Thursday it reached two-week highs at the level of 1.5756; however, in the afternoon after the announcement of the results of the second phase of European LTRO, the quotes dropped to 1.5650. At the moment the pair has corrected upwards despite the decline in production output in British construction sector by 2.2%. There will not be important news releases today, and the pair is likely to trade in the upward channel. The first target of the “bulls” is the level of 1.5750, the second target is — 1.5780. Support and resistance Technical indicators show uncertainty in the market. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, confirming upward channel. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; however, its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines are horizontal. Support levels: 1.5691 and 1.5650. Resistance levels: 1.5750 and 1.5780. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions at the current price level and take profit at 1.5780. Short positions with the target of 1.5650 can be opened if the price consolidates below the level of 1.5691 (middle line of Bollinger bands).
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend European currency is traded near important resistance level of 1.2435, which is also a moving average with the period 200. If Euro fails to consolidate above this level, the pair can reach the level of 1.2350. Euro is under pressure from the decision of the rating agency Fitch to downgrade rating of France by two notches up to the level of AA. The decline in rating was caused by the actions of French Cabinet of Ministers, which approved the budget for 2015 including the national debt of the country in the amount of 100% of GDP. It is worth noting also that Paris agreed to defer the obligations to reduce the budget deficit to 3% in 2015. Today, monthly report of Bundesbank will be released; however it is unlikely to provide significant support to Euro. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 1.2451 (8/8 Murray). Support level is 7/8 Murray (1.2420). Trading tips Short positions are recommended after breakdown of the level of 1.2420 with protective orders at 1.2450 and a target of 1.2360.
Dmitry Agurbash Analysts of LiteForex Investments Limited
NZD/USD: waiting for Global dairy trade report Current trend The NZD/USD continues to be trading within the wide downward channel. The quotes are correcting today: they tested the level of 0.7775 (the middle line of Bollinger bands) but did not manage to consolidate above. A downtrend is very likely to resume soon. New dairy prices will be announced today at Global dairy trade auction and then they may decrease again. The largest dairy producer, the Fonterra Company, has already lowered the payment forecast to suppliers from $5.3 to $4.7/ kg. US real estate market statistics are also worth attention. In case the number of construction permits increases, the NZD may considerably weaken. Support and resistance From technical point of view, the pair is trading near the middle moving average of the "Bollinger Bands" indicator (0.7775). Investors aren't taking risks before dairy prices are published and US Fed meeting takes place. Technical indicators points to further growth. The MACD histogram moved to the positive zone forming a buy signal. Stochastic lines are directed upwards. Support levels: 0.7775, 0.7690. Resistance levels: 0.7825 and 0.7870. Trading tips Fundamental factors will play an important role in this situation, that's why short positions with target at 0.7725 seem to be more suitable. They may be opened after the price consolidates below the level of 0.7775. Long positions should be opened if the price reaches the level of 0.7790. The level of 0.7825 will be the target of such positions.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, red line is directed downwards while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. The pair has been corrected above Kijun-sen line (0.9631) and lower border of the cloud becomes the next resistance level at 0.9700.
USD/CHF, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line follows the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair has bounced off the upper border of the cloud (0.9596) and is still consolidating above it. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 0.9674.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9631, 0.9596. Resistance levels: 0.9674, 0.9700. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the breakthrough of Kijun-sen line may be the first sign of trend reversal. Short-term long positions can be opened at current price with targets around 0.9700. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: general overview Current trend The British pound substantially consolidated against the American currency yesterday. Backed by the UK positive retail sales statistics, the pound grew by over 100 points during the trading session. According to the published information, retail sales grew by 6,4% in November. Investors responded to the news by actively buying the currency. The economic calender does not foresee any macroeconomic releases today that could affect the GBP/USD rate. Support and resistance Bollinger bands are directed sideways on H4 chart, which signals the absence of market activity. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but its volumes are gradually decreasing. Support levels: 1.5645, 1.5600, 1.5565, 1.5540. Resistance levels: 1.5683, 1.5720, 1.5753, 1.5785. Trading tips Long positions are not recommended at this moment. The pair found support at the level 1.5645. In case this level is confidently broken, the bears' next target will be the level 1.5600. The bears' farthest target is the level 1.5540. A consolidation of the price above the level of 1.5683 will suggest a further uptrend. The bulls will test the level of 1.5753 after the level of 1.5683.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited