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EUR/USD: the decline in Euro will continue Current trend European currency has been trading near the key support level of 1.3350 for a few days. All attempts to breakthrough this level, have been unsuccessful, although Euro has been under pressure throughout several weeks. Geopolitical tension and sanctions have had a negative impact on the European economy; the demand for Euro continues to decrease, while negative indices help intensify pressure on Euro. It became known today that GDP of Germany, France and Eurozone as a whole were all below the forecast. Today, the data on the US labour market will be released. A speech of the Russian President before Federal Ministers and deputies of the State Duma will be of interest. Recently, world community follows with insight all statements made by Vladimir Putin. As experience shows, his statements can significantly affect the rate of Euro. Support and resistance In future the pair is likely to fall to the target level of 1.3250 (1.3100), which has been confirmed by the main indicators. Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3000, 1.3250, 1.3170 and 1.3100. Resistance levels: 1.3430, 1.3520, 1.3660, 1.3770, 1.3860, 1.3900 and 1.4000. Trading tips It is recommended to place pending sell orders from the level of 1.3430 and take profit at the level of 1.3250.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GPB/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Last week, volatility in the pair GPB/USD was high. In the middle of the week the pair went up the level of 1.6844, but then sharply went down to the level of 1.6656. As the result, by the closing session on Friday, quotes could not consolidate above the level of 1.6700. The decline was caused by the data, which showed that wages in the UK dropped by 0.2%. In addition, the Bank of England has lowered forecast of wages growth from 2.5% to 1.5%. The comments of Mark Carney did not leave hopes for the rise in interest rates this year. This week also is going to be eventful. On Tuesday, consumer price indices of the UK and USA for July will become known. On Wednesday, the meeting of the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England will be held; however the decisions made at the meeting are unlikely to have a strong impact, as Mark Carney has already gave to understand that changes in the interest rates have not been planned in the near future. On Thursday British retail sales data for July will be released. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.6730, 1.6745, 1.6800 and 1.6840. Support levels: 1.6700, 1.6685, 1.6670 and 1.6656. The main target of the “bears” is the level of 1.6600. However, it will be difficult for them to break down this level. Trading tips Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.6700. Limit buy orders can be placed at the levels of 1.6660 and 1.6600. Buy positions are recommended above the level of 1.6770.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The currency pair EUR/USD started this week with the decline. European currency is under pressure from poor data on trade balance in Eurozone. This index has been decreasing for the third consecutive month, reaching the level of 13.8 billion euro in June. Note also that the restrictions in imports of the products from European countries introduced by the Russian Federation has have a negative impact on Euro. In future this measure can significantly affect European producers, thus decreasing GDP of EU. Today’s fundamental news will include consumer price index for July in the USA. (According to the forecast this index will remain at the level of 2.0%). The data on the American real estate market will be also known. It is expected that the number of permits to construct and foundations of the new houses will increase, which will provide support to the American currency. Support and resistance In the near future it is likely that the price will continue to go down to the levels of 1.3330 and 1.3310. We do not expect that the quotes will go further down, as market participants will not take risk prior to the speech of the head of the US Fed, Mrs. Janet Yellen, which will take place in Jackson Hole. Technical indicators demonstrate mixed signals. Bollinger bands are diverging, confirming downtrend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are ready to leave oversold zone and form a buy signal. Trading tips In the current situation it is advisable to open short positions from the level of 1.3345 with the target of 1.3300. Long positions with the target of 1.3400 are recommended only if the price goes up to the level of 1.3365.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is still ascending. The pair is stillgrowing, the closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (0.9086). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9130.
USD/CHF, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. After another correction the pair returned to the rise. The closest support level is still Tenkan-sen line at 0.9067. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9170.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9086, 0.9067. Resistance levels: 0.9130, 0.9170. Trading tips Both charts confirm the upward movement. Targets for the long positions are 0.9130 and 0.9170. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD XAU/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1287.08). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1267.22.
XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above within the cloud. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. The pair has broken down the cloud, the closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (1292.57). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1267.22.
Key levels Support levels: 1267.22, 1270.26. Resistance levels: 1287.08, 1292.57. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the pair is still falling, on the daily chart we can see a strong signal to sell. Targets for the short positions are 1267.22 and 1270.26. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of Brent Brent, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below; current Kumo-cloud is descending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (101.96). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 102.72.
Brent, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The pair has been corrected to the level of Tenkan-sen line, which is the closest resistance level (103.20). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at (100.88).
Key levels Support levels: 101.96, 100.88. Resistance levels: 102.72, 103.20. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see strong signal to buy despite downward movement on the daily chart. Target for the long position is 102.72. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GPB/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The pair GBP/USD is still falling. At the beginning of today’s session the Pound has hit the lows at 1.6540, but been corrected later to the level of 1.6580. The pair continues downward movement despite Mark Carney’s promise to raise interest rate. Moreover, regulator decided to harden monetary policy. This week Bank of England is on vacation, so investors’ attention is drawn to the USA, where Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence index and preliminary GDP data are going to be published. Support and resistance From the technical point of view Pound looks better. Indicators give signals to buy and promise future rise if the resistance levels are broken through. Resistance levels are 1.6590, 1.6620, 1.6670, 1.6690. Support levels: 1.6540, 1.6500. Trading tips It is recommended to open short trades below 1.6540. Pending buy orders can be placed at 1.6540.
Ilya Laschenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: last year’s lows don’t seem impossible anymore Current trend An abrupt fall of the European currency against US Dollar has slowed down, but trend reversal won’t be formed any time soon. Demand of Dollar is increasing, while the Europe releases are still negative. Yesterday’s key indices from Germany were disappointing. Lfo Business Climate has dropped down to the level of 106.3 points, Current Assessment — down to 111.1 points and Expectations index — down to 101.7 points. However, American currency has also lost its speed, the pair EUR/USD is consolidating after long fall. Economic calendar in Europe is empty today; meanwhile, USA will publish Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence index. The stats are expected to be positive and support national currency Support and resistance If the forecasts prove itselves right, the pair will break down key support level of 1.3190 and reach the lower border of the channel (1.3100). In mid-term perspective the pair will be moving towards the level of 1.3000, and that’s where last year’s lows (1.2750) don’t seem impossible anymore. Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2950. Resistance levels: 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3430, 1.3520. Trading tips Pending sell orders can be placed at 1.3250 and 1.3300 with targets at 1.3000.
Dmitriy Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD USD/CAD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming Dead Cross reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. The lower border of the cloud becomes a resistance level at (1.0922). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0868.
USD/CAD, D1 At the daily Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is still ascending. The pair is consolidating between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, which are resistance (1.0929) and support (1.0854) levels respectively.
Key levels Support levels: 1.0868, 1.0854. Resistance levels: 1.0922, 1.0929. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the Bearish trend is still strong. Targets for the short positions are 1.0868 and 1.0854. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
AUD/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Today the pair AUD/USD has reached four-week highs at 0.9374, and then been corrected. Investors are waiting for the preliminary data on US GDP. If the positive forecast proves itself right, the pair will be corrected to the levels of 0.9320 and 0.9280. Support and resistance Technical indicators give controversial signals, reflecting indecisive market. Bolinger Bands show a divergence, however the price chart has bounced off the upper MA. MACD histogram is in positive zone, its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines have crossed and can soon turn down. Support levels: 0.9320, 0.9300, 0.9280. Resistance levels: 0.9360, 0.9375, 0.9400. Trading tips Short trades with targets at 0.9280 can be opened as soon as the price breaks down the level of 0.9320. Long positions should be placed above 0.9360.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited