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EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Last Friday the pair EUR/USD continued to decline, dropping to the level of 1.2500, which is a strong support level, coinciding with Fibonacci retracement line of 23.6%. The decline was triggered by the data on the US labor market. Due to positive news the pair hit new lows. It became know that the number of new jobs outside agricultural sector amounted to 248 thousand against the forecast of 215 thousand. Unemployment rate fell from 6.1% to 5.9%. Therefore, recovery of the American economy is well under way. At the moment the decline in price is prevented by the strong support level, which is unlikely to be broken down without additional drivers. There will not be many important news releases this week. Nevertheless, breakdown of the level of 1.2500 can be provoked by stops, which may lead the pair to the decline of 1.2400-1.2385. Note also that the pair EUR/USD is in the downward cannel and has now entered thr correction phase. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.2485 and 1.2500: the latter one is obviously the most important target of the “bears”. Resistance levels: 1.2550, 1.2580, 1.2605 and 1.2650. Trading tips Currently it is likely that the pair will consolidate and trade in the narrow range. It makes sense to place limit sell orders at the levels of 1.2605 and 1.2650. Short positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.2500. Buy positions are advisable above the level of 1.2550.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: technical analysis USD/JPY, H4 On the four-hour chart the pair USD/JPY is traded in the rather wide channel. Currently, the quotes are at the level of 108.66. The price has not reached the lower line of Bollinger bands indicator (108.32) and is being corrected upwards. Following the minor correction, the pair will again fall to the lower moving average line and then the trend will reverse. Probability of the further decline is also confirmed by MACD histogram, which is in the negative zone and the volume of which is increasing. Stochastic lines are ready to intersect and turn downwards.
USD/JPY, D1 On the daily chart the pair has reached the annual highs at the level of 109.84. Now the price has broken down the middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator and continues to approach the lower line of the indicator at the level of 108.16. After that the pair will reverse and undergo slight correction. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and moving upwards, which confirms probability of the correction.
Key levels Support levels: 108.16, 108.32 and 106.80. Resistance levels: 108.94, 109.15 and 108.71. Trading tips The four-hour chart indicates prospects of the slight growth in the pair. On the daily chart the lines of the “Bollinger bands” indicator are narrowing, indicating that the price can make sharp movements soon. Considering that the pair USD/JPY has already reached its annual peak, we can expect that the pair will start declining. In the short-term, buy orders can be placed from the level of 108.32 with the target of 108.70. In the short-term it makes sense to open sell positions below the level of 108.16 with the target of 106.80. Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend Last week the pair USD/JPY has reached the highs at 110.00. Market players have been expecting this level since last year. This week the pair started with the fall, but today it went up and is trading around 108.50. Prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe claimed that weak Yen can affect SME, while Head of BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda doesn’t see any harm in low course of national currency. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga mentioned that weak Yen didn't raise the volume of export, but he also stated that his opinion couldn’t be seen as an estimation of Yen course. This week investors are waiting for the fundamental data on Japanese Manufacturing sector as well as US FRS Meeting Minutes. Support and resistance Support levels are 108.35, 108.00 and 107.75. The pair will meet resistance at 108.55, 108.85, 109.20, 109.45. The main target for the Bulls is 110.00. Trading tips Pending buy orders can be placed at 107.75, don't forget about stop-losses. Long-term buy orders can be opened at 109.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: general review Current trend At the last trading session the British currency rose significantly amid the news from the US Fed. Minutes of the meeting of FOMC have shown that interest rates will not be raised in the near future. The minutes also said that strengthening in the USD would have a negative impact on the US economy, especially on the export- oriented sector. Amid these facts the GBP has grown by more than 50 points. Today, market participants are waiting for the data from the Bank of England on interest rates and on volume of the bond repurchase (14:00 GMT+3). Support and resistance On the four-hour chart technical indicators show that uptrend will continue. Bollinger bands are directed upwards; MACD histogram has moved to the positive zone, indicating the increase of the buying activity. Resistance levels: 1.6217, 1.6280 and 1.6320. Support levels: 1.6150, 1.6100 and 1.6040. Trading tips It is recommended to open buy positions after breakdown of the level of 1.6217, from which the “bulls” will try to reach next resistance level of 1.6280. In case of downtrend it makes sense to open buy position below the level of 1.6100 with the nearest target of 1.6040.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
NZD/USD: upward correction was short Current trend This week, trading in NZD/USD was mixed and the pair was strongly affected by the US fundamental statistics. On Thursday the price had reached two-week highs at the level of 0.7975 after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting, which showed concerns of the American regulator about the strong dollar. The regulator has postponed tightening of the monetary policy once again, which was unexpected for the market participants. However, soon after that the pair lost positions after the release of the American labor market information. According to weekly report of the US Ministry of Labour, number of the primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits fell again, showing positive dynamics. Note also that New Zealand currency continues to be under pressure from the low prices for the dairy products. According to the auction “Global dairy trade,” the price of milk fell by 7.3% over the last two weeks. Support and resistance Technical indicators show that the price has broken the middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator (0.7860) and had potential to decline up to the levels of 0.7790 and 0.7740. MACD indicator also confirms possibility of the decline in price, as its histogram is ready to move to the negative zone and form a sell signal. Stochastic lines are horizontal. They do not give any clear signals. Support levels: 0.7790 and 0.7740. Resistance levels: 0.7860, 0.7900 and 0.7975. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price level. Long positions with the target of 1.7975 can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 1.7890.
Dmitry Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: general review Current trend With the opening of today’s trading session, the pair EUR/USD has slightly grown after the decline last Friday; however, in general, European currency continues to weaken amid overall strengthening in the USD. In addition, European macro-economic statistics show negative performance, indicating slowdown in economic growth. It is likely that in the near future European currency will not have strong drivers capable to change current dynamics. Today, on 13 October, macro-economic statistics, which can affect the rate of EUR/USD, is not scheduled for the release. Only on Tuesday, ZEW economic sentiment (Germany) will become known. Support and resistance High volatility is not expected today. On the four-hour chart technical indicators show the lull in the market. Bollinger bands are directed sideways; MACD histogram is moving along the zero line, demonstrating lack of activity in the market. Support levels: 1.2645, 1.2600, 1.2570 and 1.2500. Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2735 and 1.2790. Trading tips It is likely that the pair will slowly decline to the level of 1.2600 and after breaking down of this level the pair will go down to 1.2570.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. During another correction the pair has broken through Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, it can be a beginning of trend reversal. The closest support level is Kujun-sen line (0.9534). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 0.9571.
USD/CHF, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the pair is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending.. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line at 0.9494. Tenkan-sen line becomes a resistance at 0.9577.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9534, 0.9494. Resistance levels: 0.9577, 0.9571. Trading tips Short-term buy positions can be opened at current price with targets at 0.9577. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: general analysis Current trend On Tuesday the Pound has cheapen against the USD, and the pair GBP/USD has broken important support level of 1.6000. Currently the pair is traded at the level of 1.5900; in the near future GBP/USD may go further down up to the level of 1.5850.The surge of sale of the British currency was caused by the data on the consumer price, which has grown to the level of 1.2%. This fact can force the Bank of England to postpone the rise in the interest rate, which, in its turn, will have a negative impact on the national currency. Note that the target inflationary level set by the Bank of England is 2%. Today, the data on British unemployment rate will become known. If this index fall below 6.1%, the Pound is likely to strengthen. Trading tips The nearest support level is 1.5930 (1/8 Murray). Support level is Murray line of 0/8 (1.5885). Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.5885 with protective orders at 1.5920 and the target of 1.5840.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, the cloud can’t reverse and remains descending. The pair has broken down the cloud and is still falling. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (0.8755). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at (0.8685).
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The pair is consolidating around Tenkan-sen line, which is now a resistance level (0.8775). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at (0.8636).
Key levels Support levels: 0.8685, 0.8636. Resistance levels: 0.8755, 0.8775. Trading tips On the both charts we can see the development of the downward movement. Targets for the short positions are 0.8685 and 0.8636. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Yesterday the pair EUR/USD tried to overcome the level of 1.2700. European currency has weakened against the USD due to the rise in yield of the US ten-year treasury bonds. Sharp decline in EUR took place after the release of European inflationary statistics. It became known that consumer price index on annual basis rose only by 0.3%, which is the worst result since 2009. Growth in price within a month amounted to 0.4%, which agrees with the forecast. Despite negative statistics Euro had regained some of the losses and almost reached the previous local highs at the level of 1.2844. However, neither the news about the rise in the US industrial production (+1%), nor the reduction in the number of initial applications for the unemployment benefits, (which has decreased by 23 thousand), could not cool down enthusiasm of the “bulls”. It is likely that the USD will need more positive economic data in order regain lost positions. Support and resistance Resistance levels are the local highs of 1.2844, 1.2885 and 1.3000. Support levels: 1.2790 (lows of the Asian session), 1.2700 (Fibonacci retracement of 50%), 1.2624 (lows of 15 October). Trading tips It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.2780 with the target of 1.2700. Buy positions can be opened at the level of 1.2845 with the targets of 1.2885 and 1.2990.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited