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NZDUSD. The pair rises, but the reversalis probable 1. Current trend
Atthe beginning of the week the pair were consolidating after an abrupt fall.Last Friday the price fell 150 points down and hit three-week lows at 0.7690. Thestrengthening of American dollar was caused by positive statistics from labormarket. The optimistic data may speed up the curtailment of quantitative easingprogram. However the decrease of the price has reversed to uprising correctionand now the pair has regained its position.
2. Support and resistance levels; bestentry/exit points
Atthe moment the pair is aimed to resistance level 0.7875. If the level is passedthe pair will go further up to 0.7915 level and maybe to 0.7980 level.Nevertheless the reversal from the level 0.7875 and downward movement tosupport levels 0.7820, 0.7780 and 0.7740 are highly probable. Considering the conditionsit would be rational to open long trades only after the solid consolidation ofthe price above 0.7875; short positions can be opened at 0.7850.
3. Technical indicators
Onthe four-hour chart indicator Bollinger Bands does not show any divergence/convergence,moving average is directed upwards. MACD histogram has reached the overboughtzone, producing a signal to buy. Stochastic lines are on the border ofoverbought zone, a signal to buy is expected soon.
Dmitry Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EURUSD: Will Ben support the dollar?
1. Current trend
This Monday euro began to rebound slightly after an abrupt fall. The pair has won about 80 pips due to the growth of demand for the currency of the eurozone. Besides, the positive factor for euro is that ECB, IMF and European Commission have come to an agreement on the further recovery of Greek economy. Negative macroeconomic data on Germany haven’t affected the pair fluctuations much. Today’s economic calendar is almost empty for the eurozone and U.S.: there are no important meetings or key releases. We’re anticipating tomorrow’s economic statistics on France and Bernanke’s speech on Economic Policy.
2. Important levels: support and resistance
While the economic calendar is empty we presume the consolidation of the pair and a little rebound followed by descending movement as American dollar strengthen. If Ben Bernanke announces the stabilization of U.S. economy and curtailment of the third round of Quantitative easing of FRS, the pair EURUSD may fall to the key support level 1.2750.
3. Best entry/exit points
We suggest to open short trades with Take Profits at 1.2750. Pending short positions can be placed around 1.2900-1.2950 with Take Profits at 1.2800.
4. Supporting facts
MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is in the negative zone above the zero line and is directed upwards, which indicates the beginning of uprising correction.
Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
1. Current trend of GBPUSD
This Tuesday British currency was fluctuating around key support level 1.4840. Several attempts to break down this level had failed. The pair was rebounding but under pressure of weak macroeconomic statistics on UK pound fell down to 1.4835 again. GBPUSD started today with an uprising movement and consolidated above 1.4900. Now investors wait for the U.S. statistics release and the main event is a speech of chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke.
2.Important levels: support and resistance
The situation is controversial. From the one hand strengthening of British currency and rise up to 1.5100 is highly probable. There are a lot of favorable factors: positive economic statistics of Britain, the overbought of the instrument and increase of demand from the investors. From the other hand Bernanke’s speech can support dollar and press pound down below key support level at 1.4840. In this case the next step for the pair is a decline to 1.4700 level.
3. Best entry/exit points
It is rational now to open long positions with Take Profits around 1.5000-1.5050. It is also possible to place pending sell orders below the support level 1.4840.
4.Supporting facts
MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is in the negative zone above the signal line and is directed upwards, which indicates the beginning of uprising correction or reversal of trend.
Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USDCHF: Analysis and forecast
1. Current trend
From the beginning of the June the pair USDCHF has been rising and has reached 0.9751. Now we can see a small correction. Today the pair will be testing new levels at 0.9622 and 0.9589. The vector ot the future movement will be decided today after the speech of chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. We anticipate some economic statistics from USA: reduction of general sales and increase of inventory holdings by 0.3%. It can be a sign of overstock and stagnation in this field of economy. But we doubt the date will affect the pair’s movement.
2. Support and resistance
The resistance levels for the correction are 0.9622 and 09589; support levels are 0.9751 and 0.9718.
3. Technical indicators
The price chart crosses the upper line of Envelopes indicator, producing a signal to sell. Signal line of MACD indicator is in positive zone and is going to leave histogram area.
4.Trading tips
We recommend to sell as soon as MACD gives a confirming signal (signal line is out of histogram zone). From the other hand it is possible to open long trades when the price overcomes the levels 0.9718, 0.9751.
Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
AUDUSD. The rise can turn into a fall
1. Current trend of AUDUSD
From the beginning of the week the pair has been rising. Today’s economicdata from China, the main trading partner of Australia, has influenced thepair’s movement. Export from the Heavenly Empire decreased by 3,1% in June, and import — by0,7%. These data can provoke further weakening of Australian dollar.
2. Important levels:support and resistance
Now the price is still going up to the level 0.9270, this level doublesmoving average line of Bollinger indicator. If the price overcomes this line,the new targets will appear at 0.9450 and 0.9580. Otherwise we anticipatereversal and return to three-year minimums. Though the uprising movement is morebelievable. Stochastic and MACD indicators also signalize the “bullish” trend.
3.Trading tips
With the situation in hand it will be rational to open long trades if theprice breaks through 0.9270 level. We recommend to place Take Profits at0.9450. Short orders can be open starting from the 0.9200 level.
Dmitry Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USDCAD USDCAD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-Sen line is below Kijun-Sen line and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo-cloud is descending. Since yesterday the pair has been falling, but this morning we can see a small rebound. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-Sen line (1.0433). One of the previous extremums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0195.
USDCAD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, but the blue one is directed downwards. Chinkou Span line approaches the price chart from above; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After long rise the pair has collapsed and broken down Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen levels. The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 1.0279-1.0263. The closest resistance level is Kijun-Sen line (1.0372).
Key levels Support levels: 1.0195, 1.0279-1.0263. Resistance levels: 1.0433, 1.0372. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the price has slowed down, but we expect a new “bearish” impetus. On the chart with higher timeframe a confirming signal to sell will appear as soon as Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines are crossed or Chinkou Span line crosses the price chart. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUDUSD AUDUSD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, but the blue one stays horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current Kumo is ascending. Since yesterday the price has been fluctuating within a channel corresponding to the cloud. A strong resistance level is flat Kumo top at 0.9191. The resistance level is Senkou Span A line (0.9127).
AUDUSD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, and the price is squeezed between them. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. Kijun -sen line remains the closest resistance level at 0.9351. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8816.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8816, 0.9127. Resistance levels: 0.9191, 0.9351. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the price is still within the cloud borders, it is not advisable to open new trades. The further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the cloud borders. The chart of the higher timeframe confirms the descending trend. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBPUSD: Reversal of the trend 1. Current trend This Thursday British currency was strengthening. Startled by the Bernanke’s speech investors were buying pound. Demand of dollar has decreased. Negative statistics on labor market has affected American currency. Unemployment claims haven’t confirmed the forecast and had risen up to 360 000. Under the pressure of these facts the pair GBPUSD hit 1.5200. Today we anticipate European news — an industrial production index. Among the macroeconomic statistics from US we highlight Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and we’re waiting for the speech of FOMC member Bullard. 2. Important levels: support and resistance The pair has consolidated around resistance level at 1.5200; we expect further descending correction towards support levels 1.5100-1.5050. A strong rise is highly unlikely. Despite the prolongation of QE program dollar is supported by positive economic statistics and won’t probably fall. The reversal of the trend seems to be the most obvious scenario. After slight decline the pair will go all the way up to 1.5310. 3. Best exit/entry points We suggest to open long trades with Take Profits at 1.5310. Pending orders can be placed at 1.5100-1.5050 with Take Profits at 1.5300. 4. Supporting facts MACD histogram on the four-hour chart has moved to positive zone, it is above signal line and is directed upwards. This is a sign of trend reversal.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USDCHF: investors are attracted to American economy
1. Current trend
The pair is trading between 38.2% and 50.0% of Fibonacci lines near bottom border of the uprising channel. As we can see on the chart, the price is within a triangle pattern. The breakthrough of its upper bound will indicate end of the correction. American dollar has pulled the pair USDCHF up. It can destabilize the “European safety bay”, which attracts investors in the time of troubles in global economy. Positive statistics from USA will encourage further rise of dollar. Today TIC long-term purchases volumes will be published. Experts anticipate the increase of the volumes, which makes the American economy more attractive for foreign investors. Industrial production rate is expected to increase 0.3%, as well as consumer price index. The index is an early indicator of consumer inflation, the increase of its rate makes consumption more profitable than saving. This process can provoke an economic growth.
2. Support and resistance
Support levels are 0.9441 and 0.9410 levels, resistance levels — local maximums at 0.9515 and 0.9537.
3. Trading tips
Regarding positive statistics from the New World it is obvious to open long trades with Stop Loss orders at 0.9410 and Take Profit orders at 0.9605.
Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBPUSD:rise after correction
1.Current trend
This Monday pound against dollar was trading humbly around 1.5100 level. Low volatility can be a sign of the calm before storm. This morning GBPUSD was trying to go up to the local maximum, but the effort was in vain. Many analysts and investors anticipate the release of macroeconomic news from UK, which is going to be controversial. Besides, important US statistics are going to be released today and can affect the movement of the price.
2. Important levels: support and resistance
If the data from UK is positive, the price will probably rise towards resistance level 1.5200-1.5310. After that an uprising movement will turn into fall down to support level 1.5000, as a result of forcible statistics from US. The decline of demand for the pound will also bring pressure on the pair. The main news this week is still Ben Bernanke’s speech, which can surprise traders and investors. Two last speeches were controversial and investors are trying to figure out the perspectives of monetary police of USA.
3. Best entry/exit points
We would suggest to place sell limit orders at 1.5200-1.5310 level with Take Profit orders at 1.5000. After that we expect the development of ascending trend.
4. Supporting facts
MACD histogram on the four-hour chart moves to the positive zone. It is above signal line and is directed upwards indicating the reversal of the trend and further ascending movement.Dmitry Lihachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies