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USDCAD: BOC statements and reports
1.Current trend
The pair has corrected to 38.2% Fibonacci line and is trading in downward channel now. There are two possible scenarios: decline within downward channel or reversal to the low pitched upward channel. Today’s economic releases will decide the destiny of the pair. According to experts Foreign Securities Purchases rate will be 10.23 milliards comparing to the previous 14.91 milliards. Building Permits and Housing Starts are also going to rise. The main triggers will be BOC and FRS statements. Investors anticipate the clearness of QE program question. If Bernanke confirms the reduction of money infusions this September, we will witness strengthening of American dollar. Otherwise, short decline is possible.
2. Support and resistance
Support levels for the “bullish” trend are 1.0377 and 1.0360. The pair is now trading around them. Resistance levels are 1.0432 and 1.0442.
3. Trading tips
We would suggest to buy at current price with target at 1.0466. Though further descending movement is probable.
Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
AUDUSD: waiting for Bernanke’s speech
1.Current trend
The pair AUDUSD has started this week with a 200 points rise hitting 1.9260 on Tuesday. The momentum for the uprising movement has been created by the publication of Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. RBA doubts that liberalization of monetary policy is needed. The price has bounced off 1.9260 level, which correspond to the upper border of the descending channel, and has returned to fall.
2. Important levels: support and resistance
In the near future we expect the price to fall down to 0.9140 and 0.9060 levels. Don’t forget Bernanke’s speech in US Congress on the economic conditions this Thursday. If the situation is announced positive, the pair may decline and hit new lows. For now we would suggest to open short positions at 0.9200 with Take Profit orders at 0.9660.
3. Technical indicators
On the four-hour chart Bollinger Bands don’t show any important divergence. The price chart has bounced off the upper line and is directed towards the MA. It can be seen as a promise of decrease towards 0.9140 and even 0.9060. MACD histogram is in overbought zone. Stochastic lines is leaving overbought zone (80) and a signal to buy is developing.
Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EURUSD: Bernanke is at the helm again
1. Current trend
This week started with the ascending movement in European currency against the USD; the pair is supported by the increasing demand for Euro and strong European macroeconomic statistics. The pair has hardly reacted to the decline in the business sentiments of Germany, the same index in Europe rose up to the level of 32.8. Today’s indices in the construction sector of Europe have not yet affected the price movement: the pair continues trading near the level of 1.3150. Reputable analysts and investors are waiting for the speech by Ben Bernanke, scheduled for 17-18 July. Changes in the US oil inventories are also worth of attention.
2. Important levels: support and resistance
At the moment the pair consolidates near the key resistance level of 1.3150. It is likely that starting from this level downward correction to support levels of 1.3100 and 1.3050 will take place. After that uptrend will resume, key resistance level of 1.3150 will be broken down and the pair will continue to go to the new local highs of 1.3250 and 1.3415. However we should not forget about important catalyst, that is the change in the US monetary policy. The news of this week is the speech of the US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, which, as usual, can spring surprises to traders and investors. His last two speeches were contradictory and now investors have to understand what Bernanke had in mind and what will happen to the US monetary policy.
3. Best entry/exit points
In the current situation it is advisable to place buy orders from the levels of 1.3100 and 1.3050, keeping in view the rollback and continuation of the ascending trend. It is recommended to take profit at the level of 1.3250, for the long-term strategies- at 1.3400.
4. Supporting facts
On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indicating continuation of the ascending trend.
Dmitriy Lihachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBPUSD: pair will continue to grow
1. Current trend
On Wednesday the British currency received tremendous support from the members of the UK Monetary Policy Committee, who unanimously decided not to make changes in the monetary policy due to positive statistics in for the last quarter and general economic stability. With the help of support provided by macroeconomic indices, the pair GBPUSD soared up by more than 150 points.
Before the speech of the US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke the pair was volatile, first reaching the local highs of 1.5265 and then going below the level of 1.5200. The speech by Ben Bernanke was positive. He highlighted that program of assets purchase will be minimized by mid-2014, if unemployment rate will amount to 7% by this time.
However the program can be suspended later or earlier than planned depending on the forecast of the labor market. Investors assessed Bernanke’s speech as positive and the USD started to grow, while the pair GBPUSD fell to the level of 1.5160. Attention today should be paid to the next speech of the US Fed chairman and on the publication of the retail sale index in UK.
2. Important levels: support and resistance
In the current situation it is likely that the pair will decline due to USD strengthening and weak data on the British retail sales. Later ascending trend will resume. The decline will reach support level of 1.5100-1.5050 and after that the pair will grow to the new local highs of 1.5300-1.5410.
3. Best entry/exit points
We would recommend to place long pending positions from the level of 1.5050-1.5100 with profit taking at the level of 1.5300.
4. Supporting facts
On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indicating that ascending trend will continue.
Dmitry Likhachev
Analysts of LiteForex Group of Companies
EURJPY: analysis and forecast
1. Current trend
The pair has been moving in the wide ascending channel throughout a month. European currency is gradually regaining positions against the Yen, periodically experiencing correction. At the moment the pair is not far from the local highs, which was reached this May.
On Monday election to the upper House of the Japanese Parliament will take place. It is assumed that the ruling party will win the majority of seats. Thus, the government will receive support for the required reforms.
Technical indicators demonstrate growth in the pair. Stochastic is in the neutral zone; however both lines of the indicator are directed upward. Histogram and the signal line of MACD indicator are in the positive zone, volumes continue to increase slowly. All three moving average lines are directed upward, indicating growth.
2. Levels of support and resistance
The main resistance, which keeps down further rise in the pair is the level of 131.50. Next resistance levels will be 132.00 and 132.50. Support levels: 131.00, 131. 20 and 131.00.
3. Trading tips
If the price consolidates above the level of 131.50, it is advisable to open long positions However if resistance will be strong, preventing the rise in the pair, it is advisable to open short positions with the target at the level of 130.30.Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USDCHF:investors hesitating
1.Current trend
Yesterday macroeconomic news from USA didn’t meet the investors’ expectations. The released data were negative comparing to the forecasts. However dollar has strengthened its positions thanks to the speech of FRS chairman. He announced that inspite of economic recovery FRS is not going to curtail QE program until 2014. Indicators of the Bernanke’s success will be reports on Unemployment claims. Experts predict decrease of the index down to 344000 rate. If the actual rate is lower than that of the forecast, American currency will have an extra support.
2. Levels of support and resistance
Support levels are 0.9377 and 0.9407; resistance level will be at the local maximum (0.9454).
3. Technical indicators
Moving Average of MACD indicator has left the histogram zone. The histogram itself is in negative zone. There is a signal to buy. The other signal to buy has been formed by the crossing of bottom Envelopes line and the price chart.
4. Trading tips
I would recommend to buy at the current price with Take Profit orders at 38.2% Fibonacci line (0.9515). Stop Loss orders should be placed at 0.9377.
Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USDCAD: general analysis
1. Current trend
The pair is trading with a decrease around lower border of the uprising channel. On the four-hour chart we can see that the course has corrected twice to the level of 38.2% Fibonacci line. It is highly probable that we will witness further fall down to the point of 1.0323 and even lower. Though Bernanke has assured the investors that US economy is stable, American dollar takes its time to strengthen. The currency can be affected by FRS intentions not to curtail the QE program until 2014. It may cause short-term decline of the course of the instrument.
2. Support and resistance
Support levels are 1.0354 and 1.0324; the resistance will be at 1.0408 and 10432 levels.
3. Trading tips
Long trades with targets at 1.0324 can be opened after the breakdown of the lower border of the channel. As an alternative I would expect the price to rise up to 1.0432 or even higher to the level of 61.8% Fibonacci lines (1.0499).
Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBPUSD GBPUSD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current Kumo is ascending. Since last week the pair has been rising strongly. Tenkan-sen (1.5320) and Kijun-sen (1.5231) lines are support levels. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.5433.
GBPUSD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Last week Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line and they are directed towards each other. Chinkou Span is approaching the price chart from below. After considerable fall the pair reversed, broke through Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines and hit flat bottom of the cloud. Senkou Span B line becomes a strong resistance level at 1.5379. Kijun-sen line is the closest support level at 1.5268.
Key levels Support levels: 1.5320, 1.5231, 1.5268. Resistance levels: 1.5433, 1.5379. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a development of upwards movement. Long trades can be opened with Take Profit orders at 1.5433. On the daily chart the price has slowed down before flat bottom of the cloud. The breakthrough of this level will produce a signal to buy. However if the price bounce off this line, the pair will go down to 1.5268. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForexGroup of Companies
XAUUSD: gold regains lost positions 1. Current trend Gold has grown since the beginning of this trading week, steadily consolidating above the level of 1300.00 USD per troy ounce. Gold is a traditional safe haven against risks of inflation and weakening in the national currencies. Precious metal will in the advantageous position if governments continue to pursue monetary easing policy. Amid victory of the ruling party in Japanese election and due to comments by Ben Bernanke, gold has strengthened positions and is likely to continue growth. Technical indicators show that gold has all chances for further rise. All three moving average lines are directed upward. The signal line and histogram of MACD indicator are in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the oversold zone, both of its lines are directed downward, suggesting a chance of correction. 2. Levels of support and resistance Pushing off from resistance level of 1340.00, the price is moving down to the level of 1321.00. Next support level is 61.6% of Fibonacci. The main target of the “bulls” is the level of 1370.00, which coincides with the level of 38.2% Fibonacci. 3. Trading tips At the moment, the pair may experience downward correction to 1321.00 or lower up to 1300.00. It makes sense to place limit buy order at these levels. Buy orders can be placed if gold exceeds the level of 1340.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZDUSD: pair will continue to rise 1. Current trend The pair NZDUSD has started this week with a growth and hit two-month maximum at 0.8010 on Tuesday. This level corresponding to the upper border of the ascending channel hasn’t been broken through. The price is being corrected now due to the unfavorable date on China manufacturing index. Its rate in July is 47,7 points, but the experts expected it to be 48,6 points. 2. Support and resistance; entry/exit points Regardless sudden downward correction “bullish” movement is most probable today. The price may rise up to 0.8010, 0.8050 and even 0.8100 levels. We recommend to open long trades at 0.7990 with Take profits at 0.8100. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart Bollinger Bands do not show any important divergence and are directed upwards. Upper line of the indicator corresponds to the border of an uprising channel. Price chart can’t break through MA which is also a support level. MACD histogram is in overbought zone and has crossed the signal line from above. It can be a sigh of temporary fall but not the reverse of the trend. Stocahstic lines have crossed giving a signal to short-term sell.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst