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USDCHF Technical Analysis 14.07 - 21.07 : Correction Finished, What Next?

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.13 15:23 

USDCHF price was on correction for whole the week crossed kumo (Ichimoku cloud) from bullish to primary bearish, and broke almost all support levels on the way to go to downtrend. This correction is finished on open D1 bar, and we are having the flat market condition for H4 timeframe. By the way, H4 price is already in primary bearish on close bar.

Ichimoku cloud (kumo) is very thin on D1 timeframe - just 7 pips only. So, the price can break it back to go to uptrend in very easy way. On the on the other hand, if the price will break 0.9404 support level on close bar so this finishing correction will be continuing to the primary bearish and we may have good possibilities to go short for example. I think - it is some kind of dilemma in this case: where the price will go to in the next week. It is very easy for the price to be reversed to primary bullish to continue uptrend because Ichimoku kumo is very thin on D1 timeframe. But we may be able to see good downtrend too in case the price will break 0.9404 support level. I think - fundamental news events (economic calendar) will "tell" to us the possible future direction of USDCHF for the coming week,

  • Recommendation for long: watch the price to break 0.9585 resistance level on H4 for going long
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.9404 support line to trade to go short
  • Trading Summary: watch fundamental news events

UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDCHF price movement for the next week)

2013-07-15 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Gross Domestic Product (GDP)]

2013-07-15 07:15 GMT | [CHF - Producer Price Index (PPI)]

2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Speaks]

2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]

2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | [EUR - CPI]

2013-07-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI)]

2013-07-16 18:15 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Speaks]

2013-07-17 09:00 GMT | [CHF - ZEW Economic Expectations]

2013-07-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

2013-07-17 14:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks]

2013-07-18 06:00 GMT | [CHF - Trade Balance]

2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Index]

Resistance
Support
0.9522
0.9437
0.9585
0.9404
0.9751
0.9130




SUMMARY : trend based on fundamental news events

TREND : ranging


Intraday Chart


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.14 10:17  

I am suggesting to the people who are just starting to trade - use USDCHF as the first one : trade it on demo by manual systems or any etc. After you are comfortable with this pair - move your trading activity to EURUSD, after that - to GBPUSD and USDJPY. Once you understand those 4 pairs - select just one pair for you to trade.

Why to start with USDCHF? because this pair is leading with EURUSD/USDCHF combination, and because this pair is having very clear movement which may be correlated to the most of the forex systems. means: it is more easy to trade this pair than some other pairs for example.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.14 20:02  

Just almost same technical analysis for the coming trading week from some specialized external website (for USDCHF of course) :

==========

USD/CHF weekly outlook: July 15 - 19 :

The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Friday as the greenback took a pause following a selloff earlier in the week, which saw it drop from six-week highs against the Swissy.

USD/CHF hit session lows of 0.9438, before settling at 0.9459, down 0.09% for the day, and 1.89% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9402, Thursday’s low and the lowest since June 26 and resistance at 0.9592, Thursday’s high.

The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke saw traders reassess expectations on the timing of a possible reduction to the bank’s easing program.

Bernanke said the Fed will continue to maintain accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future, citing low levels of inflation and the high unemployment rate.

Bernanke said the bank will not raise interest rates until the U.S. unemployment rate hits 6.5%.

The comments came after the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting showed that Fed policymakers remain divided over when to begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Around half of Fed policymakers believe the bank should start to scale back bond purchases by the end of the year, while many others believe the labor market still remains too weak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment ticked lower in July, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipping to 83.9 from 84.1 in June, compared to expectations for a reading of 85.0.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Friday the U.S. central bank should wind down its monetary stimulus program by the end of this year. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should not start tapering asset purchases if inflation remains weak.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data on retail sales, consumer inflation and housing sector activity for indications that the U.S. recovery is on track. Meanwhile, Switzerland is to produce data on inflation and economic expectations.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, July 15


Switzerland is to publish government data on producer price inflation.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish the Empire state manufacturing index and a report on business inventories.

Tuesday, July 16

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, July 17

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity, as well as data on housing starts. The Federal Reserve is to release its Beige book.

Thursday, July 18

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: July 15 - 19
Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: July 15 - 19
  • Investing.com
  • www.investing.com
Investing.com - The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Friday as the greenback took a pause following a selloff earlier in the week, which saw it drop from six-week highs against the Swissy. USD/CHF hit session lows of 0.9438, before settling at 0.9459, down 0.09% for the day, and 1.89% lower for the week. The pair is likely...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.15 14:15  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.15 14:13

2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Speaks]

========

From POLITICO Morning Money :

Featuring: Join POLITICO’s Chief Economic Correspondent Ben White, as he takes his daily newsletter Morning Money live interviewing Federal Reserve Board Member, Daniel K. Tarullo, to discuss the current state of Dodd-Frank implementation, regulatory requirements for the nation’s largest banks and more. 

When: Monday, July 15, 2013 at 08:00 am ET

Where: The Newseum

LIVE now - watch this event here


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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.15

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usdchf 8 pips

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.15 15:13  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.15 15:10

2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.8%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

U.S. Retail Sales Rise Much Less Than Expected In June :

Retail sales in the U.S. rose by much less than anticipated in the month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday.

The report said retail sales increased by 0.4 percent in June compared to a downwardly revised 0.5 percent increase in May.

Economists had been expecting retail sales to jump by 0.8 percent compared to the 0.6 percent growth originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a notable increase in auto sales, retail sales came in unchanged in June versus economist estimates for a 0.5 percent increase.


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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.15

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usdchf retail sales

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.15, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.16 12:15  

The title of this thread is Correction Finished, What Next?

So, I just want to inform that correction is still finishing and we have no idea about what is next :) See 2 images : flat for H4 and D1

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USDCHF, H4, 2013.07.16

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usdchf h4 flat

USDCHF, H4, 2013.07.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDCHF, D1, 2013.07.16

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usdchf d1 flat

USDCHF, D1, 2013.07.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.16 20:15  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.16 20:13

2013-07-16 14:00 GMT | [USD - NAHB Housing Market Index]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Unexpectedly Improves To Seven-Year High :

Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly improved in the month of July, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday, with the reading on homebuilder confidence reaching its highest level in well over seven years.

The report showed that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index jumped to 57 in July from a downwardly revised 51 in June.

Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 52 originally reported for the previous month.

With the unexpected increase, the housing market index rose to its highest level since a matching reading in January of 2006.

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, "Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to tighten."

"Meanwhile, as the infrastructure that supplies home building returns, some previously skyrocketing building material costs have begun to soften," he added.

The unexpected increase by the housing market index reflected increases by all three of the components that make up the headline index.

The component gauging current sales conditions rose to 60 in July from 55 in June, reaching its highest level since early 2006.

Additionally, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months jumped to 67 in July from 60 in June, while the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers climbed to 45 from 40. Both readings were at their highest level since late 2005.

The report also showed increases by the housing market indexes for all four regions of the country. The index for the West showed a substantial increase, surging up by to 62 in July from 50 in June.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release its report on new residential construction in the month of June. Economists expect housing starts to climb to an annual rate of 951,000.


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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.16

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usdchf 16 pips

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.16, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.17 14:52  

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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.17

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usdchf 40 pips

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.17 14:51

2013-07-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

2013-07-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Housing Starts]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

=========

U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Show Steep Drop In June :

Housing starts in the U.S. unexpectedly showed a notable decrease in the month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

The report showed that housing starts tumbled 9.9 percent to an annual rate of 836,000 in June from the revised May estimate of 928,000.

The steep drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected housing starts to climb to an annual rate of 951,000 from the 914,000 originally reported for the previous month.

The Commerce Department also said building permits fell 7.5 percent to an annual rate of 911,000 in June from the revised May rate of 985,000.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, had been expected to rise to an annual rate of 990,000 from the 974,000 originally reported for May.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.18 16:28  

Forum

Press review

newdigital, 2013.07.18 16:27

2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Index]

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

===========

Philly Fed Index Shows Unexpected Increase In July :

Philadelphia-area manufacturers reported increased business activity in the month of July, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, with the index of regional manufacturing activity reaching a two-year high.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index of current activity surged up to 19.8 in July from 12.5 in June, with a positive reading indicating an increase in regional manufacturing activity. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to drop to a reading of 9.0.

With the unexpected increase, the Philly Fed index reached its highest level since jumping to 36.1 in March of 2011.


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USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.18

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usdchf 13 pips

USDCHF, M5, 2013.07.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93687
Sergey Golubev 2013.07.19 09:05  

So, we came to the beginning :

  • USDCHF D1 - correction finsihed and we are having the flat for now
  • USDCHF H4 - correction is just finishing and what next?


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USDCHF, D1, 2013.07.19

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usdchf d1 flat

USDCHF, D1, 2013.07.19, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDCHF, H4, 2013.07.19

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usdchf h4 correction finished

USDCHF, H4, 2013.07.19, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Ronnie Mansolillo
5495
Ronnie Mansolillo 2013.12.19 15:29  

Week 51 2H chart: prices crossed all indicators. Seems to be started a bullish new primary trend.

usd chf 

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