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EURUSD: data from China has weaken the pair 1. Current trend This Tuesday pair EURUSD has risen and reached resistance level at 1.3240, but the level hasn’t been overcome. The pair has started downward correction due to the negative statistics on China manufacturing index. Its rate in July is 47,7, which are the worst figures since three years ago. Unfavorable news from Heavenly Empire confirms the fears of investors. Economic recession of one of the world powers can affect USA as well as European countries. Today we anticipate flash manufacturing index of Eurozone and new home sales in USA. 2. Support and resistance; The pair is trading around 1.3200 level. Today we expect the price to go up to 1.3240 and 1.3320. However temporary slide-down to Bollinger Bands MA at 1.3170 is also possible. Then the price can reverse and start to rise. We would recommend to open long positions with Take Profit orders at 1.3320. Short-term sell trades can be opened at 1.3200. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart Bollinger Bands do not show any important divergence and are directed upwards. Price chart is directed towards MA; it can be a sign of decrease to 1.3170 level. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have crossed giving a signal of temporary fall.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
EUR/USD: general analysis 1. Current trend At the opening of European session the pair fell to support level at 1.3175, and after that was trading near the level of 1.3200. The data on Eurozone released today was above experts’ expectations: index of business climate and current assessment index in Germany have overshoot projections. Index of inflation and money supply M3 are at the level of 2.3%. These facts have triggered short-term rise up to 30-35 points. Another driver of the rise of the pair will be US statistics. Mr. Bernanke’s optimism in terms of recovery of the US economy might have been slightly exaggerated and it will not be able to provide appropriate support to the USD. The data which is scheduled for the release today is as follows: number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, volume of orders for durable goods, business activity index in manufacturing sector. Experts believe that all indices will show negative performance. 2. Levels of support and resistance The pair is once again testing resistance level of 1.3255; however it has failed to consolidate above this level. If this level is broken down the price will go up to the local highs of 1.3306. 3. Trading tips We would recommend to open long positions with the short-term target of 1.3306. In the long-term the movement may reach the level of 1.3360, following the rollback to the line 1.3255.
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CAD: technical analysis 1. Current trend At the beginning of the month the pair hit again the local maximum of the autumn 2011, then USD/CAD started to decrease. After that the pair was trading within 1.037-1.043 range. Bears tried to break down the level 1.0370, which corresponds to 50.0% of Fibonacci lines and they have finally succeeded. The next support levels won’t stop the fall either. Stochastic lines are in overbought zone, giving a signal to sell. Signal line and histogram of MACD indicator are in negative zone. Volumes of the histogram are decreasing, signal line is directed upwards. All three MA are directed downwards. 2. Support and resistance The pair is testing support level at 1.0300. The next support lines will be 1.0270 and 1.0230. Resistance levels are 1.0325, 1.0350 and 1.0375. 3. Trading tips Further decrease of the course is most probable. The pair will go down to 1.0200, however the correction towards levels 1.0325 and 1.0375 is also possible. Sell limit orders can be placed at these levels.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
GBP/USD: uptrend will continue 1. Current trend On Wednesday, following rapid rise, the British currency rolled back to the level of 1.5290. After that, due to the lack of fundamental economic releases, the pair traded with low volatility. This morning the pair went up to the level of 1.5380 due to anticipation of the data on British GDP. However, all of a sudden, the pair went down despite positive statistics. The pair GBP/USD has reached the level of 1.5300. Attention today shall be paid to the US macroeconomic news, including the most important one — unemployment claims. 2. Important levels: support and resistance After the unexpected fall of the pair down to support level at 1.5300, it is likely that the pair will rebound and reach resistance level of 1.5400 and after that will go up to the new local highs. According to experts, today’s data on US labour market is going to be negative, which may push the pair up. 3. Best exit/entry points It is advisable to place long positions at current price with profit taking at the level of 1.5400. In the medium-term it is recommended to take profit at the level of 1.5470. 4. Supporting facts On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indicating continuation of the ascending trend.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: pair lacks growth drivers 1. Current trend At yesterday’s trading session the pair USD/JPY strengthened due to the US news. Preliminary business activity index in the US manufacturing sector amounted to 53.2 points in July, while sales of new homes increased by 38 thousand in June. However this morning the pair started to weaken, dropping to the 99.80. The Yen has strengthened because amid overall weakening of the Asian markets, investors used JPY as a safe-haven currency. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Currently the pair traded near support level of 99.80, which coincides with the moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator, and looks like the key one. If the price breaks down this level, the pair may go down to 99.20 and 99.00. Otherwise the growth may reach the level of 101.00. Note that on Friday morning the data on basic index of consumer prices in Japan for July will become known. Experts expect that the index can amount to 0.3%, which can lead to the weakening in JPY. In the current situation short term short positions can be opened if the price consolidates below the level of 99.80. However long positions are more relevant and they can be opened from the level of 100.00 with profit taking at the level of 101.00. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart “Bollinger bands” indicator does not demonstrate convergences and is in the sideways trend. The price chart is near the moving average, but cannot break through it. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, however soon it may move to the oversold zone again. The lines of Stochastic are directed downward, giving a signal for temporary downward movement in price.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
AUD/USD: technical analysis 1. Current trend All this month the pair has been trading within wide sideways channel with a range of 0.9050-0.9300. Bulls tried multiple times to break through the upper border of the channel, but they’ve succeeded only in approaching to 0.9350 level. The pair is in need of additional driver to overcome strong resistance level of 0.9300. Stochastic is in overbought zone, %D line crosses %K line, giving a signal to buy. MACD histogram and signal line are close to zero line and don’t give any clear signs. 2. Levels of support and resistance The pair is testing resistance level of 0.9275. The next resistance line will be at 0.9300, it is also the main target of the Bulls. Support levels are 0.9240, 0.9200 and 0.9150.. 3. Trading tips We expect the pair to go down, but before it can rise up to 0.9300 or even higher.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-Sen line is below Kijun-Sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. After long fall this week the pair has slowed down. The nearest resistance level is Tenkan-Sen line at 0.9331. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9267.
USD/CHF, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-Sen line has crossed Kijun-Sen line from above. The price chart was able to consolidate below the lower border of the cloud and continue to go down. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is descending. The nearest resistance level is Senkou Span A line at 0.9366. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9200.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9267, 0.9200. Resistance levels: 0.9331, 0.9366. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a slow-down of the downward movement. However all Ichimoku lines on the chart of the higher timeframe indicate the development of “bearish” trend. The target for the long-term sell positions is 0.9200. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
GBP/USD: Growth up to the level of 1.5750 is expected 1. Current trend As expected the British currency was volatile on Thursday. In anticipation of positive data on British GDP investors started actively buy the Pound, bringing it up to key resistance level of 1.5400. The data on GDP has agreed with the positive forecast; however the pair sharply went down, which was triggered by overvalued expectations of investors. Despite favourable British macro-economic statistics economic growth is still below pre-crisis level of 3.3%. After significant decline in the pair investors and traders continued to actively buy the British currency. High demand and positive economic data provided support to the pair and GBP/USD soared up to the new local highs. Based on the positive wave the pair reached the level of 1.5430 and after that rolled back to the level of 1.5400. Economic calendar is uneventful today, so the pair will trade with low volatility. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Today, based on the high demand for the Pound the pair can consolidate above key resistance level of 1.5400. Later ascending trend is likely to continue up to the new local highs of 1.5470 and 1.5570. Reputable analysts believe that in the medium-term the pair will reach the level of 1.5750. 3. Best entry/exit points In the current situation it is advisable to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5470-1.5560. 4. Supporting facts On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indication that ascending trend will continue.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD USD/CAD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-Sen line is below Kijun-Sen line and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo-cloud is descending. The pair has slowed down its fall and is trading now along Tenkan-Sen line, which is resistance level at 1.0280. One of the previous extremums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0195.
USD/CAD, D1 USD/CAD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from above; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After long fall the pair has entered the cloud. Upper and lower borders become resistance (1.0312) and support (1.0249) levels respectively. If the price breaks through lower border of the cloud, the next goal for the Bears will be at 1.0155.
Key levels Support levels: 1.0249, 1.0195, 1.0155. Resistance levels: 1.0280, 1.0312. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the price has slowed down, but we expect a new “bearish” impetus. On the chart with higher timeframe the price has entered the cloud but its volume is less than 100 pips. Considering confirmation sign from the Chinkou Span line we would recommend to open short trades with targets around 1.0155. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
GBP/USD: Pound will continue to grow against USD 1. Current trend At the end of last week the British currency continued to sideways correction in the narrow channel near the level of 1.5400. The pair has repeatedly tried to break down key resistance level and consolidate above it, however all of these attempts failed. Today the pair will continue to move in the narrow range of 1.5405-1.5360. Positive data on the mortgage loaning was not able to add momentum for the further rise in the pair. At the moment investors are waiting for the fundamental statistics on the US construction sector, showing number of pending transactions on selling homes. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Volatility is not expected to be high today. The pair will continue to move slowly near the key resistance level of 1.5400. There is a high chance that in future the pair will continue to grow up to resistance levels of 1.5530 and 1.5600. 3. Best entry/exit points In the current situation it is advisable to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5470-1.5530. In addition it is also advisable to place pending long orders from the level of 1.5360-1.5300 with profit taking at the level of 1.5600. 4. Supporting facts On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line and is directed upward, indicating that ascending trend will continue.
Dmitry Likhachev Analysts