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USD/CAD: which GDP is higher? 1. Current trend Last week the pair has been trading within a sideways channel with the borders at 1.0252 and 1.0320. The price went down under 61.8% of Fibinacci lines and hasn’t been able to overcome it since. If we look at the whole chart we will see an end of the correction and further “bearish” movement. American economy doesn’t give any hope to investors lately, and it surely affects American dollar. Today we anticipate GDP data from Canada and USA, which can strengthen Canadian currency against American one. Experts predict the rise of the Canadian GDP rate by 0.2% and decrease of the US GDP from 1.8% to 1.1%. Bears can also take profit from decrease of Non-Farm Employment rate. 2. Levels of support and resistance The resistance line is the level 61.8% of Fibonacci lines (1.0317). Support level is lower MA of Bollinger Bands at 1.0252. 3. Trading tips I would recommend to sell at the current price with targets at 1.0252. If the price consolidate under this level, further movement towards 1.0917 will be possible. Stop Loss orders should be placed at 1.0325.
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: in expectation of clear signals 1. Current trend Current situation is ambiguous. On the one hand, indicators of the Japanese labour market are improving, on the other hand, index of industrial output and household spending are showing negative results. The US consumer confidence index was below forecast. At yesterday’s trades the pair had fallen to the level of 97.75, but later regained up to 98.30. Today bears are testing support level of 97.75 again. Investors view uncertainties in the future of the pair and believe that a lot will depend on the American session. The more negative news will be published, the deeper the pair USD/JPY will fall. 2. Levels of support and resistance The nearest support level is 97.70, which coincides with the level of 50.0% Fibonacci line and prevents further decline in price. If this level is broken down, next target of the bears will be the level of 97.00. Resistance levels are 98.00, 98.20 and 99.00. 3. Trading tips At the moment it is not advised not to enter the market but rather wait for the clearer signals.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: review 1. Current trend At yesterday’s trading session Brent significantly rose in price, despite recent fall to the level of 105.70, which were the lows of the last four weeks. The rise was triggered by the US macro-economic statistics. According to the released data US GDP increased by 1.7% in Q2 2013, which was above analysts’ forecast, who expected the rise of only 1%. At the same time Brent has also strengthened due to technical purchases, caused by the decline in rate. Although recently released data on oil inventories was below experts’ expectations, this fact did not put significant pressure on the Brent rate. Over the past week commercial crude oil inventories in the US increased by 400 thousand barrels, gasoline inventories rose by 800 thousand barrels, while analysts had anticipated significant decline in oil products. Today Brent rate is supported by the data from China, the second largest oil consumer. Business activity index PMI in China rose to the level of 50.3 points against the forecast of 49.8 points. This data indicates positive dynamics in the manufacturing activity in China, thus, increasing optimism among investors, who worried about slowdown in the economic growth of China. US macro-statistics, which is scheduled for the release today, may affect crude oil Brent rate. This will be: 15:30 (GMT+3) Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits; 17:00 (GMT+3) Business activity index in the manufacturing sector estimated by the Institute for Supply management (ISM). 2. Important levels: support and resistance Support levels for Brent are: 107.30, 106.30 and 105.70. Resistance levels: 108.20 and 109.00.
Alexander Freis Analyst
GBP/USD: rapid growth up to the level of 1.5300 is expected 1. Current trend On Wednesday the British currency was under pressure due to the decreasing demand for the pound and favourable US statistics. The data released yesterday showed that the US GDP rose by 1.7% in Q2, which was above the forecast. The USD received support and the pair dropped to the level of 1.5130. to In response to the news that the US Fed left interest rate at the previous level, the pair GBP/USD rapidly went up to the level of 1.5250. After that the pair resumed slow decline. Today the pair continued to decline and reached the level of 1.5130. Later, in anticipation of important publications on British economy investors started to buy the Pound and the pair went up. Index of manufacturing activity, as per PMI estimates, has exceeded the forecast, giving additional support to the pair and it reached the level of 1.5200. However, the main news is yet to come: this afternoon the Bank of England will announce key interest rate and will make a decision on the volume of asset purchase program. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Today the pair has consolidated above the key resistance level of 1.5160. In future a lot will depend on the speech by the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Amid economic stabilization of the past several months, the pair can receive considerable support. In the medium-term the pair is likely to reach the level of 1.5300 and go further up to the recent local highs of 1.5400 and 1.5450. 3. Best entry/exit points In the current situation it is advisable to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5300-1.5400. 4. Supporting facts On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the negative zone below the signal line and is directed downward, indicating either downward correction or the beginning of the downtrend.
Dmitry Likhachev Analysts
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines are merged and stay horizontal. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below, current cloud is descending. The pair has consolidated above Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen, which became the nearest support at 0.9283. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 0.9335.
USD/CHF, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-Sen line is below Kijun-Sen line, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above, current cloud is descending. The nearest resistance level is Tenkan-Sen line at 0.9321. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.9200.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9267, 0.9200. Resistance levels: 0.9331, 0.9366. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a development of trend reversal. Long trades can be opened at the current price with Take profit orders around 0.9335 level. Daily chart doesn’t confirm trend reversal. The target for the long-term sell positions is still 0.9200. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
GBP/USD: following correction the pair is prepared to grow 1. Current trend of GBP/USD A lot of important data on British and American economics has been released at the end of this week, which increased volatility in the pair. Yesterday the Bank of England announced key interest rate and volume of asset purchase program. The indices remained at the previous levels, so the release of this data hardly had any effect on the movement in the pair. Later, the Pound got support from the strong data on index of manufacturing activity, which demonstrated growth to the level of 54.6, exceeding all forecasts. The pair soared up to the level of 1.5240. However, after the release of data on labour market and index of business activity in the USA the pair went back to support 1.5100 and consolidated near this level. Attention today shall be paid to Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate. In addition, the data on personal spending, basic price index for private consumption spending and manufacturing orders will be known today. 2. Important levels: support and resistance In the last few days the USD has been actively regaining positions, while the pair GBP/USD has already lost more than 300 points. Fundamentals to be published today will be of importance. If unemployment rate remains at the previous level and a number of jobs excluding agricultural sector drops, the USD will go down significantly. UK has been showing positive economic statistics since the beginning of the year, which indicates the economy of the country is gradually recovering. The pair is likely to grow later, amid weak data on the US labour market. 3. Best exit/entry points In the current situation it is advisable to place long positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5300-1.5400. 4. Supporting facts On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the negative zone below the signal line and is directed downward, indicating either descending correction or the beginning of the downtrend.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst
EUR/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls as well as other statistics can weaken the USD 1. Current trend Yesterday’s macro-economic data was above analysts’ forecast. Number of announced corporate layoffs as well as number of applications for unemployment benefits was below expectations. Business activity index rose up to the level of 55.4 points. This fact provoked the decline in quotes: the price went beyond the lower limit of the channel; however the American currency did not continue strengthening. Today, the pair traded at the level of 1.3220, due to technical support from the lower limit of the channel. Further movement will be determined by the economic data, scheduled for the release today, including: number of jobs excluding agricultural sector, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and consumer spending. Expected reduction in unemployment rate will hardly provide support to the USD amid anticipated decline in jobs by 9 thousand, cuts in people’s income and the rise in spending. Based on the indices’ performance, investors will be able to decide whether measures taken by Federal Reserve in respect to the quantitative easing program have been efficient or not. 2. Levels of support and resistance The first important resistance level is 1.3254, next one is 1.3304. Support levels are 1.3184 and 1.3160. 3. Trading tips In anticipation of the negative performance of the US economy I would recommend to open long positions with the target of 1.3304. Stop-loss can be placed at the level of 1.3160. If the price exceeds resistance level of 1.3254, it will make sense to move stop-loss in the black zone.
Kamil Avad Analyst
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD XAU/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line, and they are both horizontal. Last Friday gold went up and entered the cloud once again. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. The closest support level is Kijun -Sen line (1310.92). Resistance level will be at the upper border of the cloud (1326.83).
XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the price is between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines are moving towards each other indicating future cloud reversal. Upper (1333.92) and lower (1292.36) borders of the cloud become resistance and support levels respectively.
Key levels Support levels: 1326.83, 1333.92. Resistance levels: 1310.92, 1292.36. Trading tips On the four-hour chart the price has entered the cloud. It is not advised to open new trades. On the daily chart we can see the same situation, the price is moving sideways. Further direction of the movement will be determined by the breakdown of one of the cloud borders. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis 1. Current trend At the end of the last trading week the pair received support from the US macro-economic data. On 2 August statistics on unemployment and the data on nonfarm payrolls have been released. Although unemployment rate fell to the level of 7.4%, a number of jobs outside agricultural sector fell to 162 thousand, which was below experts’ expectations. Market immediately responded to this news by the decline in demand for the USD. The USD rate broke down resistance level of 1.3254 and consolidated above this level. Today the pair went up due to positive statistics on Eurozone: business activity index in the service sector of Spain and Italy rose above all expectations. Attention today shall be also paid to the consumer confidence index in Eurozone, retail sales and index of business activity in the US non-manufacturing sector. 2. Levels of support and resistance The pair traded near resistance level of 1.3304, which can be exceeded after the release of news from Europe. Next resistance level is 1.3344. Support level is 1.3254. 3. Technical indicators MACD histogram is on the positive zone, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line from below to above. Central line of the “Bollinger bands” indicator has crossed the price chart from bottom to top. Aggregate data of the indicators suggests a chance of the rise in quotes. 4. Trading tips I would recommend to buy at the current price with the target of 1.3344.
Kamil Avad Analyst
Brent: Review 1. Current trend Last week crude oil Brent rate significantly dropped under the effect of US macro-economic statistics. By the end of the session the price of Brent was $108.77. Investors were disappointed by the data on the US labour market. Number of jobs outside agricultural sector grew by 162 thousand against the forecast of 184 thousand. It was the lowest index since March. Brent rate was also under pressure from technical sales of oil futures before the weekend, as significant growth earlier gave participants good chances for taking profits. On Monday Brent rate went up, reaching the level of 109.38; however in the result of correction the rate fell to the level of 108.63. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Resistance levels for Brent are 109.40 and 110.00. Support levels are 108.30 and 107.60.
Alexander Freis Analyst