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NZD/USD: Review and forecast Current trend This week the pair NZD/USD has reached seven-week highs at the level of 0.8736. The rise in price was caused by the reaction of the market participants to the outcome of the US Fed meeting. The American regulator has again reduced the volume of economic stimulation; however, the time period when the interest rates will be raised has not been outlined. Currently the pair is undergoing correction, as the NZD is under pressure from the weak data on the country’s GDP that amounted to 1.0% in Q1, which was below the forecast. Support and resistance Currently the pair is traded near the level of 0.8691. This level coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger bands indicator and seems to be the key one. If this level is broken down, the price will drop to the levels of 0.8670 and 0.8645. Technical indicators confirm probability of the decline. MAC D histogram is in the positive zone; it has crossed the signal line from top to bottom. Stochastic lines are directed downwards. Технические индикаторы подтверждают вероятность снижения. Гистограмма MACD. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions with the target of 0.8645 after breakdown of the level of 0.8691.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is still growing. Tenkan-sen line is the closest support level at 0.9408. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9447.
XAG/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also above Kijun-sen, however, both lines are directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. After small correction the pair continues to grow. Tenkan-sen line is the closest support level at 0.9379. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9525.
Ключевые уровни Support levels: 0.9408, 0.9379. Resistance levels: 0.9447, 0.9525. Торговые рекомендации On the both charts Bullish trend is still strong. Targets for the long positions are 0.9447, 0.9525. Anastasiys Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: The pair will continue to move in the downward channel Current trend Last week downward movement in the pair had slowed down; the price pushed off from the key support level of 1.3520 and started to go up slowly. Slight rise in demand for Euro and weak US macro-economic statistics boosted the rise in the pair to the level of 1.3650. Note that negative statistics of Eurozone indicates slow rate of economic growth in Europe, which may force ECB to ease monetary policy. On Monday, the pair was under pressure from the negative data on business activity index in the manufacturing sectors of Germany, France and EU as a whole. Today, the price of the pair EUR/USD has slightly grown, due to the influence of the cross-pair EUR/GBP. The British Pound is losing positions due to the negative effect of the inflation report and the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. Investors will wait for the data on the US real estate market today. Support and resistance Although the pair has won back some of the losses, significant rise in the pair is not expected. The pair may go up to the resistance level of 1.3660, which is the key level, coinciding with the upper limit of the descending channel. After reaching this level the pair may continue to decline because of the negative fundamental news. It is unlikely that ECB will soon take other steps to ease monetary policy, as it will take time to assess the results of the measures, which have been already adopted. If the rate of economic growth in Europe continues to decline, ECB may consider introduction of the additional measure to stimulate economy. In the medium-term the price of the pair may fall to the target level of 1.3300. Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3960 and 1.4000. Trading tips In makes sense to place short and pending short orders from the level of 1.3660 with taking profit at the level of 1.3470 (1.3300). Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: General analysis Current trend European currency is traded in the narrow channel in the range of 100 points. Breakout of the upper limit of the channel at the level of 1.3644 will enable upward movement up to the level of 1.3794. The latest economic statistics from France was below expectations of the experts, which had slight impact on the pair EUR/USD. Business confidence index fell to 92 points in June, which is the lowest value since August of last year. The economic growth in France is slowing down. Experts believe that governments plans to reduce budget expenses for 4 billion euro in order to lower total budget deficit to 3.8% of GDP in 2014, will only make the matters worse. Perhaps, if administration of President coordinates the plan to reduce taxes for business, it may revive the economy of the country. Today a lot of US statistics will be released, including final data on GDP for Q1. It is expected that this index will decline to the level of 1.7%, which may have a serious impact on the USD and support Euro. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 1.3644. Support level is 1.3564. Trading tips It is advisable to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.3644 with protective orders at 1.3624 and the target of 1.3780.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: General analysis Current trend Yesterday the price of the pair GBP/USD had reached weekly lows at the level of 1.6951. Nevertheless, during European trading session, the Pound tried to win back lost positions and consolidate above the level of 1.7000. The price of the British currency started to fall after the statement by Mark Carney, the head of the Bank of England who had changed his position towards interest rates. Mark Carney said that British economy has not yet regained and the decision on the raise of the interest rates can be made when unemployment rate falls to 6%. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels: 1.7004 (Wednesday’s highs), 1.7064 (highs of 19 June), 1.7100 (important psychological level). Support levels: 1.6951 (Wednesday’s lows), 1.6923 (lows of 18 June), 1.6880 (moving average with the period of 21 days), 1.6845 (moving average with the period of 50 days), 1.6698 (lows of 4 June). Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions after breakdown of the level of 1.7005 with protective orders at 1.6990 and the target of 1.7060. Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.6950 with the target of 1.6880 and stop-loss at 1.6970. Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: Review and forecast Current trend On Wednesday the currency pair USD/JPY reached two-week lows at the level of 101.61. The decline was caused by poor data on the US GDP for Q1. The index fell by 2.9% against expectation of the decline of 1.7%. This news led to the sharp decline of the price in the pair USD/JPY; however soon after that the pair won back part of the losses. At the moment the price is moving in the narrow sideways channel of 30 points. Investors do not want to take risk awaiting a block of important economic statistics from Japan, including national index of consumer price in May, household expenses and retail sales. Support and resistance In the near future it is likely that the price will move in the sideways in the range of 101.86-101.67. If fundamental data released on Friday will be positive, the price may slowly fall to the level of 101.48. Technical indicators confirm downtrend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to place short positions from the level of 101.67 with taking profit at the level of 101.48. Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: Further movement in the pair will depend on the decision of ECB Current trend By yesterday afternoon the pair EUR/USD dropped to the level of 1.3570. However it did not take long for European currency to regain and win back losses. Some experts express opinion that ECB does not wish to introduce additional measures of monetary policy easing, preferring instead to reduce interest rates once again. Today the quotes began to grow and reached the level of 1.3630. Among important fundamental news will be German preliminary consumer price index for June and US consumer confidence index, as per Reuters/Michigan. Support and resistance Further strengthening in European currency is not expected. Strong data on German indices were not able to provide support, which would be strong enough to break down key resistance level of 1.3660, coinciding with the upper limit of the downward channel. In the medium-term the pair is likely to go down to the local lows. Breakdown of support level of 1.3520 is also possible. The target, which is still at the level of 1.3300, can be reached in the mid-July. Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3960 and 1.4000. Trading tips In the current situation it is advisable to open short and pending short positions from the level of 1.3660 with taking profit at the level of 1.3470 (1.3300). Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: When will the Bank of England decide to tighten monetary policy? Current trend Last week the pair had traded in the sideways channel; however at the end of last week the pair went up winning back some of the losses. Although the demand for the Pound continues to grow, fundamental support is still required in order to break down key resistance level. Investors are waiting for the monetary policy tightening and the increase of the key interest rate by the Bank of England. Today UK data on the approved mortgage loans and the volume of the net loans to the individuals became known. Both indices were below expectations and the pair GBP/USD fell to the level of 1.7020. Support and resistance In the near future the pair may undergo short correction with the target of 1.6920 (1.7000), after which the pair may continue ascending movement. American macro-economic statistics continues to be disappointing, so the rise in the pair is not expected this week. Support levels: 1.7000, 1.6920, 1.6850, 1.6810, 1.6780 and 1.6700. Resistance levels: 1.7060, 1.7100, 1.7150 and 1.7300. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions from the level of 1.6920 with taking profit at the level of 1.7300.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD NZD/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and the price is stuck between them. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. After an abrupt rise the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen line, which becomes a resistance level (0.8759). The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (0.8727).
NZD/USD, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair is being corrected. However, the correction hasn’t reached Tenkan-sen line, which is stil a support level (0.8722). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8791.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8722, 0.8727. Resistance levels: 0.8759, 0.8791. Trading tips On the both charts we can see a correction of an upward movement; however, Bullish trend is still strong. Is a good opportunity to open new long trades with targets 0.8759, 0.8791. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
AUD/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The pair continues to trade in the upward trend, bouncing up due to the fact that ARB kept interest rate at the previous level. Further movement in the pair AUD/USD is prevented by the strong resistance level of 0.9450. The pair tried to break down this level repeatedly but has not succeeded so far. On the four-hour chart the pattern “head and shoulder” has been formed, which indicates that the top limit of the channel may be soon broken down. Technical indicators show further rise in price. MACD is in the positive zone, volumes of the histogram are increasing, but the signal line is horizontal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone. If the lines of Stochastic intersect, it will give us a sell signal. Moving average lines indicate the rise. Support and resistance The key resistance level is 0.9450. Breakdown of this level will open new prospects for the “bulls”. In the opposite situation the pair will undergo the correction to the level of 0.9360. Support levels are 0.9435, 0.9400 and 0.9380. Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3520, 1.3470, 1.3410 and 1.3300. Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3720, 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900, 1.3950 and 1.4000. Trading tips Long positions can be opened only if the price breaks down the level of 0.9465 and consolidates above this level. Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9450, but do not forget about stop-loss.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited