Eur/usd - page 253
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France: euro's fall has been very helpful; at a good level now
The euro's depreciation has been very helpful, but it is a good level now and stability is needed now, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said on Saturday.
"The fall in the value of the euro is very good news for all of Europe and in particular for France. It's very good news," Sapin told reporters during meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
A weaker euro helps facilitate the sale outside the euro zone of airplanes and other products, and enables European countries to defend themselves against goods that arrive from abroad, he said.
"So today, we're in a good situation. The euro is at a good level. It's one of the elements...that enable us to have stronger growth in France," he said.
But now the euro zone economies need stability, he said. They had needed to evolve, and that has happened thanks to the European Central Bank's policy of monetary easing.
"When you see the evolution of the value of the euro, it's substantial," he said, adding that the moment arrives when stability is needed so people are not always in a wait-and-see mode.
"So I think what would be good for the European economy is a vision of stability. It doesn't mean things won't move. Markets can move...but the perspective that seems good is one of stability," he said.
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The long term resistance still holding up preventing the price from climbing higher.
The current opposition Centre Party led by technocrat Juha Sipilä won 49 seats in the 200-member parliament,beating pro-EU and pro-NATO Prime Minister Alexander Stubb. The euro-sceptic Finns won 38 seats, while Stubb’s center-right National Coalition picked up 37 seats and the center-left Social Democrats gained 34 seats.
"Three years ago, we were seen as a sunset movement, but not any more," Sipilä said in a speech after seeing partial results showing his advance. "Finland is in a very difficult situation. We need exceptional degrees of cooperation so that we can overcome the difficulties."
Only 11% Finns considered the government has done "good" or "very good" work, according to a poll in Finland's paper of reference Helsingin Sanomat, published a week before the election. About 57% of Finns said Stubb had failed at his goals, especially the one to put the economy back on a stronger footing after four years of recession.
Standard & Poor’s cut Finland’s rating to AA+ last year, citing growth problems and political indecisiveness.
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EURUSD rose on Friday’s session breaking above the 1.0815 Fibonacci level but found enough selling pressure to give some of the early gains however close in the green at the middle of the daily range. The pair is making lower highs and higher lows a sign of consolidation and the stochastic is flat but above the 50 mid line.
ECB's Nowotny says impact of any Greek exit less now than before
Were Greece to leave the euro, it would not have the same impact on the euro zone as it would have had two years ago, an ECB policymaker said on Monday, urging Greece's government to provide "numbers" so that aid could be provided to the country.
"One should not overestimate the whole story," Ewald Nowotny, a member of the European Central Bank's policy-setting Governing Council, told broadcaster CNBC. He said he did not expect a deal when euro zone ministers meet later this week.
"It (a Greek exit) does not have that impact or potential impact on the euro zone as it would have had ... some two year's ago. I really don't see a contagion in the financial and economic sense," adding, however, that he could not predict the "psychological effect".
The head of Austria's central bank urged the government in Athens to provide "numbers". "Time is running out," he said.
Bundesbank: Despite Disappointing Data German Upswing Process Uninterrupted
Despite disappointing data the upswing process in Germany has not been interrupted, the Bundesbank said in its monthly report on Monday.
Nonetheless, economic growth is likely to be slower than in the fourth quarter of 2014, when it expanded 0.7 percent.
Private consumption is likely to remain the main driver of the strong economic growth, it said. The bank expects the exceptionally favorable consumer climate to last for some time.
But Bundesbank noted that sentiment in trade and industry has remained subdued despite a perceptible recovery. Growth of new orders received weakened in the first two months of the year.
The four leading think tanks last week raised the German growth outlook for this year to 2.1 percent from 1.2 percent.
Price rebounded nicely from the resistance level making a drop of 100 pips.
ECB's Constancio - default no reason to quit euro as Greece cash pinch worsens
A country that defaults would not have to leave the euro, the European Central Bank's vice president said on Monday, in frank remarks about Greece that also touched on possible capital controls and showed how acute Athens' problems have become.
Speaking as Greece ordered public sector entities to transfer idle reserves to the central bank to help with a cash squeeze, Vitor Constancio discussed the possibility of a debt default and controls on the movement of money, saying neither necessarily meant a departure from the currency bloc.
"If a default will happen ... the legislation does not allow that a country that has a default ... can be expelled from the euro," he told the European Parliament, saying that Greek banks had been told not to increase their exposure to the state to avoid "a possible credit event regarding the state".
The comments from the typically reserved Constancio underscore the seriousness of Greece's predicament and are the most open yet from the ECB, which is providing 110 billion euros of liquidity to the country and its banks.
Constancio also touched on the possibility of capital controls.
"Capital controls can only be introduced if the Greek government requests," he said, adding that they should be temporary and exceptional. "As you saw in the case of Cyprus, capital controls did not imply getting out of the euro."
Constancio underscored ECB support for Greece, telling lawmakers he was sure it would stay in the currency bloc.
"We are convinced at the ECB that there will be no Greek exit," he said. "The (European Union) treaty does not foresee that a country can be formally, legally expelled from the euro. We think it should not happen."
As it stands, the central bank is approving an ever growing amount of emergency funding for Greece's lenders. While Constancio said this could not continue regardless of the circumstances, he hinted that the ECB would be loath to pull the plug.
"If the state defaults, that has no automatic implications regarding the banks, if the banks have not defaulted, if the banks are solvent and if the banks have collateral that is accepted," Constancio said.
Greece is close to having to repay the International Monetary Fund about 1 billion euros in May and officials at the ECB are growing concerned.
The ECB has analysed a scenario in which Greece runs out of money and starts paying civil servants with IOUs, creating a virtual second currency within the euro bloc, people with knowledge of the exercise told Reuters last week.
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EUR/USD: Euro Reverses Overnight Gains, German ZEW Eyed
The euro turned to losses ahead of the European open on Tuesday, while traders look ahead to Germany's ZEW economic sentiment survey later this morning.
The euro is being further pressured by uncertainty over Greece, with the situation starting to escalate yet again. Given the dire situation the country is in, some analysts are already speculating about a third bailout. Greece is in a tough cash position and latest reports suggest Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has ordered local governments to deposit reserves with the central bank. The situation is very time sensitive at the moment and it seems unlikely we’ll see a solution by the key dates.
EUR/USD traded 0.21% lower at $1.0714, falling from it's overnight peak of $1.0750. "We remain broadly bearish on the EUR and continue to run a short EURUSD recommendation in our cash recommendations portfolio," BNP Paribas wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
"Greece has a lot more to lose than the euro area, many feel the country will end up succumbing to the euro zone’s demands despite attempting to put up a fight. Perhaps this is why the single currency is not completely crumbling on Greece fears. Apart from the EUR/USD cross, the euro has remained steady against other majors throughout the Greece noise. Weakness in EUR/USD has been more greenback specific as it’s managed to recover after struggling last week," Stan Shamu from IG wrote on Tuesday.
The German ZEW indicator fell short last month, but a slight improvement is expected in April from 54.8 to 55.6. More focus lies on the German Ifo business survey, which is due on Friday, which is likely to be a better indicator as to how the German economy is doing.
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EURUSD fell on yesterday session, driven by concerns about Greece debt situation and the Eurogroup meeting on April 24th but many officials have suggested an agreement that will grant Greece a new tranche of aid is unlikely before May 11. The pair closed near the low of the day and the stochastic is showing bearish momentum coming in to the market.