Eur/usd - page 246

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Last month EURUSD fell more than 4.0% and is in a bearish phase, trading below the 10-day moving average. The pair initially fell during yesterday session but found enough support at a Tuesday’s low to turn around and closed near the open of the day, creating an inside day pattern. Stochastic is showing bearish momentum but is still above the 50 level.

 

The EUR/USD is waiting for the NFP tomorrow.

 

EUR/USD: Trading the US Nonfarm Employment Change

US Nonfarm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of US Non-Farm Employment Change is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading can have a substantial impact on the direction of EUR/USD.

Nonfarm Employment Change improved sharply in February, jumping to 295 thousand. This crushed the estimate of 240 thousand. The markets are expecting a sharp drop in the March report, with an estimate of 247 thousand. Will the indicator repeat and beat the forecast?

Sentiment and Levels

EUR/USD has found its footing recently, but there is more room for the pair to drop. However, we’re unlikely to see any dramatic moves until after the Easter holiday. The ongoing Greece bailout crisis could have a major impact on the pair, and a pause in the crisis could help EUR/USD in the short term. In general, ECB QE continues in full force and continues to weigh on the euro. Over in the US, it seems that the losing streak of poor data may be over as we have already seen the first signs of this. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1113, 1.1050, 1.0910, 1.0760, 1.0615 and 1.0550.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 244K to 250K. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 251K to 255K: An unexpected higher reading could push the pair below one support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 255K: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could push the pair lower and two or more support lines could fall as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 239K to 243K: A weaker reading than forecast could result in EUR/USD breaking above one resistance line.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 239K. In this scenario, the pair could break through two or more resistance lines.

source

 

EURUSD rose on yesterday session closing well in the green near the high of the day and above the 10-day moving average. Today we will have low liquidity due to Good Friday bank holiday in Europe and Oceania however in the US the nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate are due today late morning. The bank expects expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5% and the nonfarm payroll job growth of 220K in March, which is below the consensus forecast of 245K.

 

EURUSD Upside Rejection; Bear Bias

An erratic consolidation on Friday to reflect the indecisive tone that has dominated since the mid-March FOMC rally, but we see a negative bias early this week.

Another recovery effort Thursday probed just above the peak from the post-FOMC rally at 1.1036 (up to 1.1053), but then yet another stall for a bearish outside pattern Thursday for an upside rejection of a broader range shift to leave risks back to the downside.

We still see an erratic consolidation theme into late March and maybe early April, but with a negative bias and look for the bear trend resumption into April.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias back through 1.0855 to 1.0801, maybe for 1.0767/54.
  • But above 1.0949 opens risk up towards 1.1053, which we would again look to try to cap.

source

 

EUR/USD: Pair Frozen, Waiting for Payrolls

he world's most traded currency pair patrols a 40-pip wide range, as the holiday-subdued markets are cautious ahead of the heavy hitting US non-farm payrolls release.

The cross was traded flat, oscillating around the $1.0880 mark two hours before the figure of the week is due to be released.

"Given the Easter holiday, the activity on the market is subdued and it will take substantial deviation from the whisper number, which is about 150,000, to move the market in either direction," Ladislav Benedek, senior currency trader at VUB Intesa Sanpaolo said for WBP Online on Friday.

On Thursday, the pair made hard pushes to attack the $1.09 barrier, ramming repeatedly into strong resistance at this level and ultimately stabilizing just below it. The deal on the framework of a preliminary Iranian nuclear pact before a final agreement reached between Iran and Western leaders had no impact on the cross.

US payrolls may deliver impetus

After a streak of rather disappointing data streaming from the US over the past couple of weeks, the non-farm payrolls reading, which is routinely a gauge strong enough to significantly move the markets, is about to revive or destroy hopes for an earlier Fed rate-hike.

Analysts are expecting an increase in non-farm payrolls by 245,000 in March with an unemployment rate of 5.5% and a 0.2% increase in average hourly wages for the month.

The Department of Labor in Washington will release the March employment report (despite the start of the Easter holidays) on Friday at 8:30am local time.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD is gradually cutting its losses as prices hold above $1.08. Movement on the major US dollar cross is very random and unpredictable on short intraday timeframes but the area around $1.10 is still working as a guide.

Now as the EUR/USD cross sits slightly above the 50% and below 76.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its previous uptrend, we are neither bullish nor bearish.

If prices break below $1.0725 they will open up the space to as low as $1.0450 where there is a swing low on the daily charts.

On the other hand as prices respected the support and rebounded off it, the cross has an open run toward $1.10.

source

 

The EUR/USD failed to break the resistance line 1.1000 the price didn't get the required push from the US data to break the psychological resistance and rebounded back to close under it.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of April 6, 2015

The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but turned things back around after a poor jobs number on Friday to form a hammer. That hammer is just below the 1.10 level, so it means that the market is probably going to try to break out to the upside. However, the 1.15 level above is will we need to break in order to feel comfortable with buying the Euro for any real length of time, and as a result we are simply looking for resistive candle in order to start selling again.

 

EUR/USD Forecast Apr. 6-10

EUR/USD began the new quarter with a slide but emerged as a winner, mostly due to USD weakness. The upcoming week features inflation data from Germany and some more PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The important euro-zone data beat expectations, with a squeeze in deflation and upbeat German job data. This didn’t help the euro initially as the end-of-quarter adjustments favored the greenback. In the US, a week that began with some positive figures ended with a very disappointing jobs report, that cast doubts on the next moves of the Fed. What’s ahead after Easter?

  1. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 7:00. While many members in the old continent still observe Easter, the zone’s fourth largest country releases the monthly change in the number of the jobless. After a slide of 13.5K in February, a bigger drop of 18.3K is expected now. Spain has one of the highest levels of unemployment.
  2. Services PMIs: Tuesday: Spain at 7:15, Italy at 7:45 and the final euro-zone figure for March at 8:00. Markit’s purchasing managers’ indices for services sector mostly showed growth in February, and this is set to continue with scores above 50 points once again. Spain is expected to see its strong growth continue with a rise from 56.2 to 56.5. Italian services are predicted to pick up with a rise from 50 to 51.1 points and the final services PMI for the whole euro-zone is likely to confirm the initial positive read of 54.3 points.
  3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Tuesday, 8:30. This wide survey of 2800 analysts and investors beat expectations for 4 consecutive months. After hitting 18.6 points in March, a score of 20.9 is predicted for April.
  4. PPI: Tuesday, 9:00. Purchasing prices fell sharply in January: 0.9%. A very small bounce of +0.1% is on the cards for February, a month that saw oil prices stabilize.
  5. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 6:00. While this is quite a volatile number, it still has a significant impact. Orders in Europe’s No. 1 economy fell by 3.9% in January, and have likely advanced 1.5% in February.
  6. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 6:45. The continent’s second largest economy suffers from trade deficits for quite a long time. However, these are shrinking in recent months together with the weaker euro. For February, a deficit of 3.8 billion euros is on the cards, a similar level to January.
  7. Retail PMI: Wednesday, 8:10. This indicator of the retail sector refuses to return to growth territory. It stood on 46.4 points in February, and isn’t likely to top the 50 point mark this time.

read more

 

How we should proceed after this weekend?

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