Eur/usd - page 123
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EURUSD pair fell during the session on Friday, but unrequired to say since the U.S. we’re celebrating Independence Day, liquidity was extremely low.
EURUSD starting to bounce around the 1.36 level, so it’s possible to get a bounce from here, but at the end of the day, the market are still pretty tight, therefore aren’t necessarily interested in trading the pair the moment.
EURUSD might consolidate in a wide but still have it way to go in few days also haveFOMC on Wednesday
Euro subdued by German data, dollar holds on to recent gains
The euro slipped on Monday, testing a 22-month trough against the British pound, after weak German industrial data highlighted the divergent economic prospects between the euro zone and those of its biggest trading partners.
German industrial output fell 1.8 percent on the month in May, its biggest drop in more than two years, surprising most analysts, who had forecast an unchanged reading.
The weak data kept alive expectations that the European Central Bank may need to loosen monetary policy further in coming months in the face of disinflationary pressures and subdued economic growth.
ECB policymaker Benoit Coeure said at the weekend that rates will remain very low for a long time, regardless of developments in the rest of the world.
In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to tighten policy either before the end of this year or early next year. Investors have also brought forward their view on the timing of the first rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve to mid-2015 after a stellar jobs report last week.
That helped the dollar index trade near its highest in nearly two weeks, at 80.359. The euro was down slightly at $1.3590, having fallen to $1.3576 earlier in the European session, its lowest since July 26. It fell to a 22-month low against the pound of 79.14 pence after the German data, but recovered to trade at 79.35 pence.
"The German data was a bit weak and in line with recent euro zone data. This will add to selling pressure in the euro in the near term," said Yujiro Goto, currency analyst at Nomura.
He expected euro/dollar to drift lower, especially in light of last week's U.S. jobs data. The strong non-farm payrolls report prompted traders to slightly increase bets that the Fed will lift rates in June next year.
Most traders, though, are cautious about adding to long dollar bets, aware that Fed policymakers will probably err on the side of caution or wait for wage inflation to pick up before hiking interest rates.
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Italy, Spain yields edge up ahead of bond sales
Italian and Spanish bond yields nudged higher on Monday before a slew of debt sales this week, but underlying sentiment in the lower-rated euro zone bonds remained firm thanks to a dovish European Central Bank.
Adding to traders' relative caution was a newspaper report saying global banking regulators were considering ending the long-standing treatment of all government bonds as potentially risk-free.
The euro zone bond market, which rallied sharply last week after the ECB said it could print money to support the region's economy, paused to prepare for debt sales due in Italy, Ireland, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and possibly Greece.
The sales are widely expected to go smoothly, with demand especially strong for peripheral bonds which still offer relatively higher yields than core debt.
"There's a little more supply this week from European treasuries so many investors may try to take the opportunity before the summer break to buy into primary auctions to get higher yields offered by the periphery," said Felix Hermann, a market strategist at DZ Bank.
"I doubt we will see a lot of (price) concession. We also have lots of coupon payments coming up and the talk from ECB officials this week should support the environment for euro zone govvies (government bonds) in general."
Italian yields rose as much as 3 basis points to 2.73 percent before retreating to trade a touch up at 2.70 percent. The Italian Treasury will give details later on Monday on the maturities and size of bonds it plans to sell later in the week.
Spanish equivalents were 1 bps higher on the day at 2.68 percent.
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are we going to see 1.35 levels again or 1.36 support line will be very strong to hold the pair from falling?
German exports and imports fall in May
Both Germany's exports and imports fell in May, official data showed Tuesday, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity.
On an adjusted monthly basis, May exports were down 1.1%, while imports fell 3.4%--the sharpest monthly decline since November 2012, the federal statistics office Destatis said.
In April, both exports and imports rose on an adjusted basis, with exports up 2.6% and imports increasing 0.2%. The data were revised from initial figures showing a 3.0% rise in April exports, with imports edging up 0.1%.
European Union countries took the lion's share of German exports again in May, accounting for EUR53.1 billion ($72.2 billion) of the country's total exports of EUR92.0 billion.
The country's trade surplus in May was EUR18.8 billion, in seasonal and calendar adjusted terms. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a EUR16.2 billion surplus.
The surplus in Germany's current account--the broadest measure of trade and investment income--narrowed to EUR13.2 billion in May, below economists' expectations of EUR14.5 billion, and a revised EUR16.9 billion in April, in unadjusted terms. The previous current account reading for April was EUR18.4 billion.
Germany's trade data follow industrial production figures on Monday, showing a 1.8% adjusted decline from April, with manufacturing output down 1.6% from April and construction slumping 4.9%.
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EURUSD initially fell during the session yesterday, but found enough support below the 1.36 level in order to continue going higher. This pair formed a very bullish hammer closing near the highs for the day, is expected that it will continue to move higher and head towards the 1.37 handle.
The 1.37 level has in fact been very solid resistance, and as a result EURUSD may simply bounce from there again.
Euro edges higher against dollar
The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields fell for a second day, pressuring the greenback lower.
EUR/USD edged up 0.08% to 1.3612, off lows of 1.3588.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3540 and resistance at 1.3610, Friday’s high.
The yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury note fell to a one-week low of 2.58% on Tuesday, amid concerns that recent data showing that the labor market is continuing to strengthen will not be enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to bring forward its timetable for raising interest rates.
The greenback was boosted after data late last week showed that the U.S. economy added a larger-than-forecast 288,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1%, the lowest in almost six years.
But the dollar’s gains against the other major currencies paused on Tuesday due to the belief that the Fed will stick to its dovish stance on monetary policy amid concerns over ongoing slow growth in inflation and wages.
Markets were looking to Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s June meeting for further indications on its monetary policy stance.
The euro’s gain were held in check after German trade data earlier in the day showed that both imports and exports fell in May, adding to concerns over the outlook for the broader euro zone economy.
The euro moved lower against the yen, with EUR/JPY down 0.26% to 138.21.
Elsewhere, the dollar was also down against the Japanese currency, with USD/JPY losing 0.31% to trade at 101.54, off last Thursday’s two-week high of 102.25.
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EUR/USD gains as investors avoid dollar ahead of Fed minutes
The euro rose against the dollar on Tuesday as investors avoided the greenback ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, which investors hope will shed light on the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
In U.S. trading, EUR/USD was up 0.06% at 1.3613, up from a session low of 1.3588 and off a high of 1.3618.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3576, Monday's low, and resistance at 1.3700, the high from July 1.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its June policy meeting on Wednesday, and investors avoided the greenback ahead of time, as uncertainty persists as to what the U.S. central bank will do with interest rates.
While the labor market has shown some signs of improvement, markets remain unclear as to how much time will pass from when the Fed will wrap up stimulus programs and when it will begin hiking benchmark interest rates.
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Monday due to the ambiguity, which gave the euro room to strengthen against the greenback.
The yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury note fell to a one-week low of 2.57% on Tuesday due to concerns that the Fed will remain dovish on interest rates despite improvements taking place in the labor market.
Last week, the Department of Labor reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 288,000 in June, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 212,000.
Meanwhile in Europe Germany reported that both imports and exports fell in May, which watered down the euro's gains.
Elsewhere, the euro was up against the pound, with EUR/GBP up 0.11% at 0.7953, and down against the yen, with EUR/JPY down 0.23% at 138.26.
On Wednesday, expect the pair to move upon release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting.
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again price is standing still with no movement at all