Eur/usd - page 206
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ECB says awaits views from Greek authorities on bailout
The European Central Bank said Monday it would seek views from Greek authorities on how to proceed with a review of the country's bailout after lawmakers failed to elect a new president, triggering a snap election.
"It's now for the Greek electorate to decide about the future composition of the parliament and the government. We will not interfere in or comment on this democratic process," the ECB said in a statement.
"We will wait for the views and suggestions of the Greek authorities on how to best proceed with the review, and we will discuss this with the European Commission and the IMF (International Monetary Fund)," it added.
The ECB said Greece had made "impressive progress in stabilising its public finances and reforming its economy over the last years and is expected to return to growth in 2015".
Greek lawmakers failed for a third time Monday to elect a new president, triggering a snap election that could bring to power a radical anti-austerity party threatening to undo many economic reforms.
The European Union and the International Monetary Fund have overseen two massive international bailouts for Greece after its debt crisis nearly destroyed the single currency zone.
But even after the rescue packages worth 240 billion euros ($290 billion) and most of the debt held by private investors being wiped out, the economy has only just begun to recover after six years of contraction.
The reforms required by the creditors have improved the government's finances but have taken a heavy toll on Greeks as unemployment has soared above 27 percent and many people have had wages and benefits cut.
Greece recently secured a two-month extension from its EU-IMF creditors to conclude an ongoing fiscal audit that will determine the release of some 7.0 billion euros in loans. The extension expires in February.
source
EUR / USD advanced slightly on Monday, but stopped in 1.2220 to fall down to 1.2165.
The short term trend is falling with the short-term oscillators to reveal a stronger momentum in the downward direction.
The RSI dropped and is now approaching its line 30, as the MACD is negative and seems able to fall below its signal line.
The maximum and minimum are lower and below the moving averages 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.22494
R2 - 1.22181
R1 - 1.21860
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21547
S1 - 1.21226
S2 - 1.20913
S3 - 1.20592
ECB’s Praet Warning of Oil Effects Signals Higher Chance of QE
European Central Bank Chief Economist Peter Praet warned in an interview with Boersen-Zeitung that lower oil prices increasingly risk de-anchoring inflation expectations, indicating that quantitative easing is becoming more likely.
Euro-area inflation will drop below zero “for a longer period” in 2015 amid a slide in the cost of crude, and the Governing Council “cannot simply look through” that, Praet said in comments published yesterday by the German newspaper. Inflation expectations are currently “extremely fragile” and the danger of second-round effects is “higher than usual,” he was cited as saying.
ECB policy makers are preparing to consider a proposal for large-scale asset purchases, including sovereign bonds, when they meet on Jan. 22. While Executive Board member Benoit Coeure has said that there’s broad consensus for new stimulus, officials including Germany’s Jens Weidmann have railed against the risks quantitative easing would entail.
The impact of oil prices, which have fallen by about half this year, was underscored by Spanish inflation data yesterday. Consumer prices slid 1.1 percent in December from a year ago, worse than forecast and the biggest drop since July 2009.
Praet said the ECB must “not be paralyzed” by the problems a QE program might create. Sovereign bonds are “the only kind of asset for which there is a significant market volume,” he said.
One sticking point in the debate is how to treat the risk of buying bonds of stressed nations. The prospect of renewed political turmoil in Greece, the country that triggered the debt crisis in 2009, has risen as snap elections in a few weeks could put anti-austerity party Syriza in power.
The rise of political parties opposed to structural adjustments is a “warning signal,” Praet said. “Populists in some countries promise fast and simple solutions but their proposals would be a complete disaster.”
source
EUR / USD rebounded slightly.
The RSI recovered after finding support near the 30 line, while the MACD, although negative, remains above its signal line and is pointing up.
There is a positive divergence between these indicators and the price action.
This indicates the deceleration of downward momentum and makes room for the extent of recovery.
R3 - 1.22494
R2 - 1.22181
R1 - 1.21860
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21547
S1 - 1.21226
S2 - 1.20913
S3 - 1.20592
Happy New Year. may 2015 be even better than this year
Euro Kisses $1.21 Exploring 'Whatever It Takes' Levels
Traders took advantage of low market liquidity and pushed Europe's shared currency to fresh two-and-a-half-year lows on New Year's Eve.
The euro extended its daily loss against the dollar to 0.45%, trading at $1.2102, its lowest level since July 25 2012, which was the day before European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi famously promised to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the currency bloc.
Back then Draghi was pushed by the sky-high yields on government bonds of periphery nations, most notably Spain and Italy.
Now hopes are running high that Draghi will start buying these (and other governments') securities on a large-scale basis early next year, in a step known as quantitative easing (QE), to prevent the region's economy from tumbling into the deflationary abyss.
While investors see interest rates in Europe heading lower in 2015, the opposite is true for the US where the Federal Reserve gears up to tighten monetary policy around the middle of next year after six-years of zero rates and three rounds of QE.
The diverging outlook between the approaches of the two central banks is going to weigh on the euro in the interim.
The euro is heading for its third consecutive weekly loss after the latest relapse of Greece's political instability opened the door to the downside.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to secure enough support for his presidential nominee in the legislature, which now will be dissolved, and the nation will head to general elections on January 25. Anti-austerity party Syriza appears in the lead which many see as a danger to Greece's path to reform its finances.
source
EUR / USD rebounded slightly.
The RSI recovered after finding support near the 30 line, while the MACD, although negative, remains above its signal line and is pointing up.
There is a positive divergence between these indicators and the price action.
This indicates the deceleration of downward momentum and makes room for the extent of recovery.
R3 - 1.22494
R2 - 1.22181
R1 - 1.21860
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21547
S1 - 1.21226
S2 - 1.20913
S3 - 1.20592
Euro extends losses, falls to lowest since June 2010
The euro fell to its lowest level in 4-1/2 years versus the dollar on Friday, after the head of the European Central Bank fanned expectations it would take bolder steps on stimulus this month.
The euro fell to $1.2035 on trading platform EBS, its lowest level since June 2010, and last traded at $1.2042, down 0.5 percent on the day.
In an interview with German financial daily Handelsblatt, ECB President Mario Draghi said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling its mandate of preserving price stability is higher now than half a year ago, underlining its readiness to act early this year should it become necessary.
this is the lowest the Euro hit for 5 years. but let's see how the market will react in the official first week of 2015
EURUSD fell on Wednesday, but today started the day to rise.
Short-term momentum studies indicate the acceleration of the movement "bearish" and reinforce the scenario that we will probably watch the EURUSD drop below 1,20.
The RSI is below its 30 line, while the MACD, already negative, crossed below its signal line.
On the daily chart, we can see minimum and lower maximum, below both moving averages 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.22200
R2 - 1.21946
R1 - 1.21456
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21202
S1 - 1.20712
S2 - 1.20458
S3 - 1.19968