Eur/usd - page 200
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EUR/USD weekly outlook: December 15 - 19
The euro gained ground against the dollar on Friday, but gains were held in check following a strong report on U.S. consumer sentiment, while falling oil prices and fears over political uncertainty in Greece continued to fuel risk aversion.
EUR/USD was up 0.44% to 1.2461 in late trade, extending its pullback from the two-year trough of 1.2246 struck on Monday.
The dollar found support after data showing U.S. consumer sentiment rose to an almost eight-year high in December.
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 93.8, the highest level since January 2007 and ahead of forecasts of 89.7.
Consumer sentiment was boosted by the improving outlook for employment and wage growth and lower gasoline prices. The data underlined expectations for a hike in U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve next year.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, recovered from session lows of 88.12 following the report to settle at 88.34, still off 0.26% for the day. On Monday the index rose to a five year high of 89.53.
Investors remained wary in the wake of a surprise decision by the Greek government to bring forward a parliamentary vote for president to next week from February.
The move raised the prospect of snap elections if Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ candidate is not approved by parliament, which could see the anti-bailout Syriza party take power.
Economic reports pointing to a slowdown in China and the ongoing decline in oil prices also fuelled risk aversion.
Oil prices hit lows not seen since 2009 on Friday, with Brent below $62 per barrel and US crude down to $57 a barrel after the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for the fifth time in six months.
In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting for further clarification on when interest rates might start to rise. The euro zone is to produce what will be closely watched reports on private sector activity.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
read more
EURUSD hiked higher during the course of Friday’s session, but struggled at the 1.25 handle again. The pair closed near the high of the day and its range is within the previous day range creating an inside day.
A daily close above the 50-day moving average can change the mid-term outlook from bearish to bullish. A head fake on the 50-day moving average can offer a great selling opportunity as the market then should drive down to the 1.2250 level.
EUR/USD moved high after finding support on the moving average of 50 periods and break above the falling trend line.
However, the movement stopped by the moving average of 200 periods.
The short-term signs indicate the possibility of a downward movement with the daily chart reveal maximum and minimum lower below the moving averages of 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.26001
R2 - 1.25425
R1 - 1.24988
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24412
S1 - 1.23975
S2 - 1.23399
S3 - 1.22962
EUR/USD jumps as fear grips market
The latest move in markets is a jump in EUR/USD to 1.2463 from 1.2445 in moments.
The moves could be tied to the collapse in the Russian ruble. In the past, the first stop for money fleeing the country has been Europe.
But there is a dramatic interplay ongoing with emerging market currencies as well. The Turkish lira just fell to a new record low and a variety of emerging market currencies are under pressure.
This is the kind of time where you start to see some dramatic mispricings. Watch for stops if 117.75 in USD/JPY breaks.
I don't think I will risk on going short now I will wait for a break above the the resistance line or under yesterday candle
French manufacturing PMI slips, services beats
A mixed picture in French PMIs: manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.9, below expectations. However, services PMI rose to 49.8 points. Both are below the 50 point mark separating growth and contraction.
EUR/USD is ticking just a bit lower.
Markit’s purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector was expected to rise to 48.7 in December in the preliminary read after a final number of 48.4 in November. Services carried expectations for an advance from 47.9 to 48.6 points.
EUR/USD traded in a relatively steady manner around 1.2450.
The PMIs are forward looking indicators, thus they are considered to have a good look towards the future. We will later have the German numbers and then the all-European figures.
The past several days has seen EURUSD enter a sideways consolidation pattern between 1.25-1.24, perhaps before the all-important US CPI data out today, which is expected to heavily influence the Fed’s interest rate timeline.
As a reminder, high inflation will lead to expectations of an early 2015 interest rate raise, while low or below expected inflation numbers will push back rate hike expectations. An interest rate hike is generally seen as a positive for the currency with the higher rate.
EUR/USD pushes higher on strong ZEW report
The euro pushed higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after data showed that German economic sentiment improved for a second successive month in December, easing concerns over a slowdown in the euro zone's largest economy.
EUR/USD hit 1.2526 during European late morning trade, the pair's highest since November 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2495, advancing 0.47%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2382, the low of Dcember 12 and resistance at 1.2571, the high of November 21.
In a report, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research said that its index of German economic sentiment jumped to 34.9 from 11.5 in November. It was the highest reading since May 2014 and easily outstripped forecasts of 20.8.
The current conditions index rose to 10.0 from 3.3 in November, compared to expectations of 5.7.
The data came shortly after research group Markit said its preliminary euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to a four-month high of 50.8 in December from 50.1 in November, exceeding expectations for a rise to 50.5.
The preliminary reading of the bloc's services PMI rose to 51.9 this month from 51.1 in November, compared to expectations for an increase to 51.5.
In Germany, preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to a two-month high of 51.2 this month from a final reading of 49.5 in November. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 50.4.
However, the preliminary reading of the German services PMI slid to a 17-month low of 51.4 from a final reading of 52.1 last month, compared to expectations for an increase to 52.6.
Markit also reported that France's manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 this month from a final reading of 48.4 in November, while the preliminary reading of the French services PMI improved to four-month high of 49.8 from a final reading of 47.9 last month, and ahead of expectations for 48.3.
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5 reasons for the surge of EUR/USD
EUR/USD is on the rise, trading at 1.2540, extending gains. Up to now, EUR/USD has been relatively stable in the global storm, especially the collapse of oil prices and the consequent plunge of the Russian ruble. However, it began moving.
Here are 5 reasons for this impressive rally:
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