Eur/usd - page 211
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
..........
Euro Slumps Amid Speculation on ECB Stimulus, Dollar Advance
The euro declined against the dollar, approaching a nine-year low, on speculation reports this week will strengthen the argument for sovereign-bond purchases from the European Central Bank.
The dollar advanced versus 13 of its 16 major counterparts, after traders increased to a record level the futures positions they hold that profit from the greenback’s gains. The pound slipped against the dollar before a report tomorrow that economists said will show Britain’s inflation rate fell below 1 percent for the first time since June 2002.
The 19-nation euro declined 0.2 percent to $1.1824 as of 9:42 a.m. London time, adding to last week’s 1.3 percent slide that pushed it as low as $1.1754 on Jan. 8, the least since December 2005. It gained 0.1 percent to 140.48 yen, after being at 140.03 yen, the weakest since Oct. 31. The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 118.82 yen, after earlier dropping 0.3 percent.
Euro-area industrial production was stagnant in November, after growing 0.1 percent the month before, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg will say in two days’ time, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A report on Friday will confirm that consumer prices in the region fell in December, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.
Sterling depreciated 0.4 percent to $1.5106 and was little changed at 78.16 pence.
source
EUR/USD failed to break the support 1.1782 (S1) and recovered to reach the resistance formed by the upper limit of the downward channel in the short term 1.1866 (R1).
The positive divergence between the RSI and the price-action with both momentum indicators rising.
However the long-term trend is downward which urges caution and wait for more consistent signals.
R3 - 1.19500
R2 - 1.18978
R1 - 1.18663
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.18141
S1 - 1.17826
S2 - 1.17304
S3 - 1.16989
Eurozone To See Moderate Growth In H1
The euro area region is set to expand moderately in the first and second quarters of 2015, a joint report published by statistical offices in France and Italy and Germany's Ifo Institute said Monday.
Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 0.3 percent each in the first and second quarters, mainly driven by domestic demand.
Investment is set to pick up moderately. It is forecast to grow 0.2 percent in the first quarter and 0.3 percent in second quarter. The appreciation of the dollar vis-a-vis the euro will enhance external trade, the report said. Despite low inflation, consumption is likely to evolve at the same speed as GDP, up 0.3 percent per quarter in the first half of 2015.
The report said economic activity is expected to confirm the moderate expansion of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 with the average annual growth rate for 2014 at +0.8 percent.
Headline inflation is expected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2015 and then slowly increase in the second quarter. Inflation is expected to be at 0.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter.
Key upside risks are a further depreciation of the euro and a greater fall in oil prices that is expected to provide a stronger stimulus to internal and external demand. Meanwhile, the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Greece poses downside risks.
The mild economic recovery will have a limited impact on employment growth. Wages are forecast to expand slowly despite the introduction of a minimum wage in Germany.
source
The market looks indecisive. hammer on the daily and on the 4 hour chart but the volatility of the market is weak
ECB's Nowotny: Sooner Rather Than Later
The European Central Bank (ECB) should not wait too long to take action to boost the faltering recovery and price growth, bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said late Monday, adding that steps including bond buying were still being discussed.
"I don't think that ... one should get into monthly data but I think we certainly have prospects for very low inflation rates in the medium term," Nowotny said a panel discussion organized by news outlet nzz.at.
"Second, you always have to consider that monetary policy has an impact only after a long delay," he added. "That means if I want to do something I should do it sooner rather than later."
Moving to QE
Speaking further, he sad the bank's policymakers were discussing several models of new stimulus that include purchases of government and corporate bonds.
The group is also debating whether to set a target size, and whether the risks related to any purchases will be shared among national central banks, he specified.
However, when directly asked if the bank would unveil a €500 billion package he refused to answer "because we have a lot of things in motion and I think it would not be right to go into great detail now".
The ECB's next rate-setting committee's meeting is scheduled for January 2
EURUSD initially fell during the yesterday session but found enough support at 1.18 handle to bounce upon significant buying pressure and close in the middle of the daily range. The pair is consolidating but we may expect an upside correction before the next leg down.
ECB policymaker hints fuel QE fire
A slew of comments by European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers this week have further fueled expectations that a full-blown European quantitative easing (QE) program is a question of "when?" rather than "if?"
Recent figures confirmed that the euro zone has slipped into deflation, spurring a number of analysts and economists to argue that government bond-buying to stimulate the economy could be announced at the ECB's next meeting on January 22.
As such, market watchers have been speculating over what form such stimulus could take, with a source telling CNBC on Monday that QE could be based on the paid-in capital contributions made from national central banks to the ECB.
Meanwhile on Friday, Reuters reported that the bank was considering a hybrid approach to government bond purchases, which would combine the ECB buying debt and separate purchases by national central banks.
As the rumor mill over ECB QE goes into overdrive, the central bank's own policymakers have spoken out ahead of the meeting next week. Here is what they've been saying:
Sooner rather than later: ECB's Nowotny
Ewald Nowotny, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, said on Monday that the central bank needed to act sooner rather than later in order to spur growth and inflation, Reuters reported.
"You always have to consider that monetary policy has an impact only after a long delay," he said at a panel discussion organized by news outlet nzz.at. "That means if I want to do something I should do it sooner rather than later."
Nowotny added that steps, including bond buying, were still being discussed.
source
EUR / USD slightly moved downward yesterday, but after finding support slightly above our line of 1.1788 (S1), recovered to "play" again the resistance line of 1.1873 (R1).
Since there is positive divergence between the RSI and the price action, and that both our momentum indicators continued to rise, is likely to take a drive up to 1.1873 (R1) and a possible approach to the resistance line of 1.1914 (R2).
After all the long-term trend continues downward.
R3 - 1.19579
R2 - 1.19142
R1 - 1.18731
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.18294
S1 - 1.17883
S2 - 1.17446
S3 - 1.17035
EUR/USD: Euro Trades in Red, Aims for $1.17
The euro-dollar pair remained lower on Tuesday as investors started a fresh wave of euro selling. The main currency pair in the world declined from its overnight high at $1.1860 to a low at $1.1780, down 0.4% on the day.
The euro fell against both the yen and sterling on Tuesday, making it a broad currency weakness. As there is sparse macro economic news during the US session, the pair will likely follow only the risk-on/off capital flow.
Market participants are bracing for the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on January 22. The central bank is expected to announce some form of full-blown QE, with predicted amounts ranging from €500 billion to €1 trillion.
The euro has been falling without correction in the previous months, confirming a strong bias in the trend. However, investors would welcome a pulback to the $1.20 area, for short positions at better prices.
"The USD has lost momentum but we think earnings growth is likely to improve in future months as excess capacity in the US economy continues to shrink. Moreover, with long USD a core view for many investors heading into 2015, we expect to see good interest to add to long USD positions on pullbacks," said analysts from BNP Paribas in their most recent research note.
Technical analysis
The EUR/USD free fall continues as the cross is placed below the big psychological barrier of $1.2000. The last time the euro was seen around current levels was in November 2005 and the area was able to support prices and rebound them to as high as $1.6000.
The intraday charts halted a free fall mode and a very weak correction is forming, with a low below $1.18 in the middle $1.17's and intraday resistance now lies at $1.870.
source