Eur/usd - page 193
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EURUSD Pivot Point for Fri, 28 Nov 2014
Resistance 3 at 1.2562
Resistance 2 at 1.2542
Resistance 1 at 1.2504
Pivot at 1.2484
Support 1 at 1.2446
Support 2 at 1.2426
Support 3 at 1.2388
Trend Summary : BEARISHI don`t suggest just share, if you think it`s good then you can follow
German Retail Sales 1.9% vs. 1.7% forecast
Retail sales in Germany rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, Destatis said that German Retail Sales rose to a seasonally adjusted 1.9%, from -2.8% in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -3.2%.
Analysts had expected German Retail Sales to rise 1.7% last month.
French PPI -0.2% vs. 0.0% forecast
French producer price inflation fell more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday.
In a report, INSEE said that French PPI fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.2%, from 0.5% in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected French PPI to fall to 0.0% last month.
EURUSD fell during the course of yesterday session, as we moved back below the 1.25 handle. This pair has seriously been punched over the last several months and as a result until some change in fundamentals and technicals it will be difficult to start buying the Euro.
Follow the trend, the trend is your friend. We may expect a move down to Year low at 1.2357 after all, the Euro is one of the weakest currencies right now, and the US dollar is most certainly one of the strongest as the Federal Reserve has left the quantitative easing game for good.
Euro-zone inflation at 0.3%, core at 0.7% – EUR/USD rises
Headline inflation did not lose its lows and stayed at 0.3%. Core inflation is at 0.7%. Unemployment stands at 11.5%. All numbers are as expected.
Given the German inflation numbers, it seems that it could have been worse. EUR/USD is ticking higher on a minor “relief rally”.
The euro-zone was expected to report a yearly rise of 0.3% in CPI inflation in the initial read for November after 0.4% in October. Core CPI was predicted to rise 0.7%, just like the previous month. However, data released from Germany and Spain yesterday was weaker than predicted, probably lowering expectations. Euro-zone unemployment was expected to remain unchanged at 11.5%.
EUR/USD traded under 1.2440 before the publication.
Germany reported an HICP (EU Standard inflation) of only 0.5% and Spain also shares the same number, but from the negative side: a fall of 0.5% in prices.
0.3% in CPI is the lowest since 2009, and 0.7% in core CPI is the lowest since before the crisis. The lack of agreement to cut oil production by OPEC yesterday pushes oil prices lower and will probably have a negative impact on headline inflation.
The ECB convenes next week, and expectations are high for an announcement of further details of what the ECB plans to buy, more specifically, sovereign bonds, or outright QE.
source
EUR/USD edges higher but upside seen limited
The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but gains were expected to remain limited as euro zone inflation data added to expectations for the European Central Bank to announce additional stimulus measures at its monthly policy meeting next week.
EUR/USD hit 1.2490 during European afternoon trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2482, adding 0.13%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2400, the low of November 25 and resistance at 1.2571, the high of November 21.
Official data earlier showed that euro zone consumer price inflation ticked down to an annualized rate of 0.3% this month from 0.4% in October, in line with expectations.
Core consumer price inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, remained unchanged at an annualized 0.7% in November, in line with market estimates.
The rate has now been below 1% for 13 straight months, well under the ECB's target of near but just under 2%.
The data was seen as increasing the likelihood that the ECB will implement additional stimulus measures in an attempt to spur growth and inflation in the euro area.
A separate report showed that the euro zone's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5% last month, in line with expectations.
Earlier Friday, official data showed that German retail sales rose 1.9% in October, beating expectations for a 1.7% gain. The change in retail sales in September was revised to a 2.8% decline from a previously estimated 3.2% drop.
Meanwhile, in France, data showed that consumer spending fell 0.9% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.2% rise. September's consumer spending was revised to a 0.5% slip from a previously estimated 0.8% decline.
The euro was also higher against the pound, with EUR/GBP rising 0.30% to 0.7947.
Sterling came under pressure after the Nationwide Building Society reported on Friday that U.K. house price inflation rose 0.3% in November, less than the expected 0.4% increase, after a 0.5% gain the previous month.
Year-on-year, U.K. house prices rose 8.5% this month, slightly below expectations for an increase of 8.6%, down from a 9.0% rise in October.
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the market has a very low volatility due to the holiday days.
The euro was stable with the estimated area of Euro CPI to rise 0.3% in the year.
The unemployment rate for October remained unchanged.
Just one week before the crucial December meeting of the ECB; the low CPI rate confirms the President Draghi concerns where a low inflation rate means a low growth.
R3 - 1.25637
R2 - 1.25434
R1 - 1.25043
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24840
S1 - 1.24449
S2 - 1.24246
S3 - 1.23855
EURO WEEK AHEAD: ECB Rate Meeting Highlights Key Macro Week
By Martin Baccardax
LONDON (MNI) - The European Central Bank's final monetary policy meeting of the year next Thursday in Frankfurt tops a critical week for the global economic recovery.
The ECB will not only deliver its final interest rate decision of 2014 next week, but will also publish up-to-date macro-economic projections for the coming two years, forecasts that are expected to show a marked decline in both growth and inflation as the currency area grapples to avoid its second recession in five years.
The estimates will come during a week in which we'll get a glimpse of economic activity in China with official government PMI figures Monday, rate decisions from the Bank of England (Thursday) the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) and critical jobs and wage data from the United States (Friday).
Oil price dynamics will play a crucial role in the ECB's projections after Brent crude prices hit four year low of $71.12 this week, en route to a 15% decline so far this month - the steepest since November of 2008.
Globally, crude prices are around 33% below the baseline forecast for 2015 oil prices used in the ECB's assumptions for its last inflation forecasts in September, which called for an average Eurozone HICP rate of 1.1% next year and 1.4% in 2016. Inflation for the month of November was estimated at a five-year low of 0.3%, according to fresh Eurostat data.
Tellingly, ECB staff had factored in a gradual rise in oil prices over the near term when it published its previous round of macro-economic projections in September.
"Overall, in the context of a global recovery, an oil price higher than the one assumed in the baseline projection appears to be plausible. Therefore, an increasing upward adjustment of the path of oil price futures is considered in this sensitivity analysis."
The forecasts, of course, will come after the Bank's formal rate decision, but no changes in its key lending rates are anticipated. However, President Mario Draghi's 14:30 CET press conference - held for the first time at the ECB's new multi-million euro headquarters - will be one of great interest to those expecting more detailed signals on the Bank's option to launch a programme of government bond lead quantitative easing in early 2015.
The schedule of ECB speakers is light this week, as is typically the case in advance of a monetary policy meeting, although a speech in Berlin from Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger Saturday (11:30 CET) could be of interest.
In terms of economic data, investors will get a final look at PMI data from Markit Economics on Monday (starting at 09:15 CET) with final readings of manufacturing activity around the region, and again on Wednesday (09:15 CET) with the final services and composite tallies.
Preliminary data published on November 20 suggested that Eurozone economic activity slowed sharply on the month, falling to a sixteen months low as output in Germany sagged and manufacturing activity in France continued to contract.
The benchmark composite reading for activity around the Eurozone fell 0.7 points to 51.4 and missed the MNI median forecast of 52.2. The index of service sector activity fell a full point from October to 51.3, an 11-month low, while manufacturing activity hit a two month low of 50.4, around half a point below the MNI median estimate of 50.9.
Other data releases of note for the week include a second, and more detailed, look at Eurozone third-quarter GDP Friday at 11:00 CET.
Eurostat's flash estimate, published on November 14, showed that the currency area economy grew slightly more than expected - at 0.2% - in the three months ending in September, and revised second quarter figures into positive territory.
Another event that must be considered this week is the result of a much-anticipated referendum in Switzerland Sunday that could, if passed, compel the Swiss National Bank to triple its gold reserves to around 20% of its total and bar it from selling the bullion ever again.
Recent polls, however, suggest support for the "Save Our Swiss Gold" initiative has fallen to around 38% amid a series of warnings from the SNB on its potential dangers.