My New Day Trading System-rate and test - page 25
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No EA will ever make money. cmon!
Have you ever heard of thermodynamcs or entropia? cmon! not gonna work. perpetuum immobile.
No EA will ever make money. cmon! Have you ever heard of thermodynamcs or entropia? cmon! not gonna work. perpetuum immobile.
Your possibly right,
A little Shannon mixed with Pascal and at best we have best guess. If we sort out MM to get us over the line more often then not then maybe just maybe we can get an EA to work. The one good thing about the markets are the minute moments of predictability that we can exploit. It's still fun trying.
Besides, if I wanted an ea that really works I would only have to shell out $69 at clickbank
. Apparently they have heaps lying around.
I use EA's as preloaded ready to order alerts in manual confirm mode. I look at the chart that triggered it and if my eyes agree with the ea I press order. Saves me the effort of working out stop losses etc as they are preloaded.
Each to their own I guess.
Cheers.
Your possibly right, Cheers.
i AM right.
Lots of words do not change a situation. Thermodynamics
eA cannot work, no matter how much brain you invest in it.
But I like your style
Money Management Suggestion for W2000 System
Hey guys!!
I've been thinking of how we could approach money management with this system. Here is my suggestion:
1. Stop Loss: =-20
2. Once the trade reaches 20 move the stop to 0. Once the trade reaches 40, move the stop loss to 20. Once the trade reaches 45, move the stop to 40.
Once the trade reaches 60 move the stop to 50, and so on in steps of ten. The goal is to make at least 40 pips, but also to allow the trade to run if it hits a strong move.
Most of the profitable trades will close around 40 but we should get the odd 80-100 pip trade.
Often the price will take off in our direction before we can react. Just adjust the stop as soon as you can.
ALWAYS set an initial stop at -20.
As long as this system averages 40 pip wins in 4 out of 10 trades it will be profitable.
I'm far enough along in my trading career now that I'm ready to settle for small, steady profits over fast, uncertain profits, so this works for me.
What do you guys think?
SL and TP -- lower TF , the worse it could be
SL should be set dynamically
say, we assume the direction is TOTALLY RANDOM (no one can tell) after our entry (but we should have a firm view before entry)
this indicator , I won't share [ but you should find something similar ]
that determine SL , or you could set TP
how to set it --- DO SOMETHING THAT MAKE SENSE (that is hard, more caution and more prudence, the winning statistics will get worse, i.e. inverse proportional to your STUPIDITY in setting SL and TP which produce various Average success %, these 2 number, so I use my indicator -- if I do remember -- to set SL dynamically --
hope you like the idea and my proposed answer
As long as this system averages 40 pip wins in 4 out of 10 trades it will be profitable.
Hi Cy.
Nice n Simple as long as the spread is favorable.
Funny you should be thinking MM as that has been my focus this last week while coding the WPR indi. I still trade the WPR manually but the EA interests me enough to keep pursuing it. For those waiting for it I am just documenting the options so should be out in a few days.
However:
I coded a tool to help me analyse stops and trade hours which I think is useful for the manual WPR2000 traders also. In fact I like its potential that much I will definitely spend more time on it.
So to give it a name I have called it the Brooky_WPR_Cross_AnalyserV1.mq4.
Pull up a chair this will take a moment.
Without an EA it is very laborious particularly with long period strategies like 2000 bars to visually analyse enough crosses to get a really good picture of what is going on.
What the indi does when attached is to
1) Read all the crosses as per your settings.eg: 2000 -40 -60
2) Look back after your set bars at a cross and determine if you had taken that trade in the indicated direction if it would have been profitable.eg: Are you in profit after say 56 bars. Nearly an hour later after taking the trade.
3) It does this by looking at the highest highs and lowest lows following entry within the period from entry + eg:56 bars and comparing to entry.
4) It will then calculate what Stop and TP including spread you should have set at entry to get a profit or just record it as a loss.
5) This analysis is then written to a csv file that can be opened and further manipulated within Excel.
6) The indi can be attached to a dead terminal without incoming ticks and will read whatever you have in history for that pair, or
7) The indi can be attached to a live chart in non-live mode to analyse all crosses up to the current bar then you can(MUST) change it as soon as it has loaded to live mode and it will continue to analyse the live data as the day goes on.
8) Any TF and periods.
9) There is also a reading of Standard Deviation output as I need it for the EA, but this could easily be changed to read RSI at all crosses or for that matter I could expand it to read as many indicator levels as wanted.
NOTE: If you leave the indi attached and close and reopen mt4 it will write again to the end of an existing file. Therefore treat the files as session files and eg: add a number to their name if you want to keep that particular file and mt4 will write a new file on startup or when you attach the indi again.
The reason why I like this so much is that the next phase will include cross tabulating the data and feeding it back into an EA. Kind of like a self adjusting EA based on current parameters. hmmmmm. Not that history repeats itself exactly, but I think it is relevant to a point.
Now the power of the info is based on someones ability to run Excel and then deduce trade-able info from it. ( Please don't ask me how to run Excel, it has plenty of help files in it )
I ran it on USDJPY a moment ago just to give an example of how to set it up and what output you will get.
Charts etc attached. The process is as follows in a WPR2000 scenario.
A) Start up the pair you want to analyse and drop the indi on the chart. ( See Pic)
B) The indi will create and write to a file in your experts/files folder with relevant naming. The filename has an automatic extension of Pair/WPR period/BarsBack so you can make sense of what the file is.(See Pic)
C) IMPORTANT: If you have put it on a live chart or strategy chart, the moment that you see that the indi has loaded, you MUST change the (switch_to_live_update) option to true. This ensures that you will only get one entry per cross and not 182 ticks of entries. In a dead chart this option is default false.
D) Navigate to your experts/files folder and you should see your file. Double click on it to open in Excel. It is a csv file so once it is open just save as an .xls file so that it will retain any extra work you do to it. If you just want to have a peek at it right click and open in notepad.
NOTE: If you have it open in excel as the original csv file and a cross comes up in mt4, mt4 cannot write to it because excel will lock it. Therefore save as xls as soon as you can to release the csv file back to mt4.
E) The file will look ( eer should look) like the pic below. I have mt4 writing self explanatory headings so you should be able to sort cut paste manipulate to your hearts delight.
ANALYSIS:
Ok so we have a file, what can we do with it? I have attached an example of one type of analysis that you could perform. I actually did this exact analysis on the AUDUSD pair and it immensely improved the EA's profitability simply by selecting better trading hours. Obviously this can be applied manually as well.
The example pictured shows a scatter graph of wins and losses. This is based on 500 trades that went one way or the other. ( 2 month period gave over 700 crosses of the -40 and -60 lines at 2000 period. Can you believe that!! This is why getting an EA to pick a good cross is so interminably difficult.)
I have written a small precis of what one might conclude from the data.
After seeing that the Hour 14 (MY platform time-- will be different on yours) seemed to garner more wins than losses I went back to the data to check out the recommended stop and tp settings ( Based on a 56 bar trade length ) and had something that I could possibly use.
Based on what I see I would probably demo test the Hour 14 on USDJPY with a stop-loss no bigger than 20 and a trailer starting at 11 as a tp of 40 probably would not get hit often enough and expect the trade to conclude within the hour.
This is working for me and should work on your platforms. It is early days for this indi and I would love some comment or let me know if it is not working correctly.
The code is easy to understand so if you extend/expand/fix it be so kind and let us know.
FILES:
Zip file attached below includes both the indi and the Excel file as pictured.
Ok you can get off your chairs now, i'm done.
Cheers.
Updated Indi Next Post
Hi all,
Added some more analysis as discussed in prior post.
Now in addition includes.
1) Rsi: Values at trade entry point.
2) Force: Values at trade entry point.
3) Atr: Values at trade entry point.
4) Triple MA Analysis: Set 3 MA's and the following is analysed at trade entry point.
a) Mas-Direction: Direction each MA was going.
b) MA Position. Where Fast, Medium and Slow were in relation to each other.
5) Trend Analysis: Will multiply your analysis period by a little over 3 times and work out if that was an up or down trend.ie: If you are analysing 56 period trades this will judge a short term trend at 176 bars for you prior to entry point.
Based on that Trend you will see the following:
a) Trend direction
b) Time of bar trend start calculated from.
b) Trend Low Value
c)Trend High Value
6) Fib values as to where the entry point was in relation to the trend mentioned above. ie: % retrace from high in uptrend and % retrace from low in downtrend. If fib value reads 0, that means entry is new high or low for the analysis period.
Possible analysis could be to see how often successful trades have occurred in a short term downtrend with an entry point no greater than .382 fib retrace or such.
There is a lot that can be gleaned from the info presented.
Pic below and indi in zip with example Excel file.
If you have used this and found it useful please share how you made best use of it.
I will now spend some time analyzing data collected myself.
Cheers.
Indi below.
feedback
Hey cy and brookie.
in my opinion what you need is an mtf wpr with abands to time reversals accurately... there is one in elite section I think.
cheers
mike
No EA will ever make money. cmon! Have you ever heard of thermodynamcs or entropia? cmon! not gonna work. perpetuum immobile.
Hi SVGuss,
The link in my signature shows the results of my 100% mechanical EA ( no human interventions).
I'm 1 month short of a complete year trading.
If no EA works then my EA must be broken
Or my EA is based on the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.
Friendly regards...iGoR
i AM right.
Lots of words do not change a situation. Thermodynamics
eA cannot work, no matter how much brain you invest in it.
But I like your styleI like your avatar.
No cyber or kiling avatars....