Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 83
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EURUSD
The Euro’s near-term tone is negatively aligned, as repeated rejection s at 1.37 barrier increased downside pressure. Extension below initial supports at 1.3660/50 tested main bull-trendline off 1.2754, 2013 low at 1.3630, also mid-point of 1.3529/1.3738 upleg, with support being reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line and 4-hour 55DMA. Larger picture shows neutral tone, as the price consolidates last week’s rally. More bearish tone would be seen in case of violation of 1.3620/00 support zone that will confirm near-term top and expose lower targets at 1.3550 and 1.3500 zone. Otherwise, while 1.3600/20 supports hold, the upside attempts will remain in play in the near-term. Clear break above 1.37 handle is required to confirm bullish resumption.
Res: 1.3687; 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3738
Sup: 1.3646; 1.3625; 1.3609; 1.3580
GBPUSD
Cable’s hourly structure is neutral, while 4-hour studies maintain positive tone, established on recovery rally from 1.6472 to 1.6623 so far. Narrow consolidation under 1.66 barrier is under way and expected to precede fresh attempt higher, while the price holds above 1.6544/34, bull-trendline off 1.6307 low / yesterday’s pullback low and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6472/1.6623 upleg. Break here would bring bears back in play and risk lower top formation.
Res: 1.6593; 1.6623; 1.6642; 1.6668
Sup: 1.6559; 1.6544; 1.6534; 1.6515
USDJPY
The pair remains in near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 101.75, posted on 27 Jan. Hourly structure improves, as the price sustains above 103 barrier, with fresh extension higher retracing over 50% of 104.83/101.75 fall. However, overall negative tone, established after repeated rejections at 105 hurdle and acceleration lower, would keep the downside vulnerable, as 4-hour studies are negative. Regain of previous strong supports at 103.90/104.00 is required to improve and sideline downside risk and shift near-term focus higher. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation would remain in play. Initial supports lay at 103.00 and 102.75, daily cloud top, below which downside acceleration would open 102.50 and 102.18.
Res: 103.43; 103.57; 103.90; 104.22
Sup: 103.00; 102.75; 102.50; 102.18
AUDUSD
The pair holds positive near-term tone, as extension of corrective rally from fresh low at 0.8658 probed above psychological 0.8800 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8886/0.8658 descend and 4-hour 55DMA. Positive hourly conditions see potential for further upside, as 4-hour studies are gaining momentum. Break above fresh recovery tops at 0.8819/24 to confirm recovery and open key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.8886, 22 Jan high, with corrective actions to be ideally contained at 0.8760/50 zone, to keep fresh near-term bulls in play. On the larger picture, however, bears remain firmly in play and see resumption of larger downtrend upon completion of corrective phase.
Res: 0.8824; 0.8856; 0.8886; 0.8921
Sup: 0.8760; 0.8750; 0.8700; 0.8676
EURUSD
The Euro ended week in red, following last week’s sell-off from 1.37 resistance zone, where gains were rejected in several attempts. Fresh acceleration lower eventually broke below near-term platform and congestion floor at 1.35 zone, with fresh low posted at 1.3478, where the price entered consolidative phase. Oversold near-term studies favor further consolidative/corrective action, with initial resistance at 1.35 zone, being tested for now, ahead of 1.3540, 30/31 Jan consolidation floor and 23.6% retracement of 1.3738/1.3478 descend and 1.3580 previous congestion top and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, where rallies would face solid resistance. Violation of the latter and psychological 1.3600 barrier, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line, is required to sideline bears. Otherwise fresh leg lower will look for test of initial targets at 1.3457, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2754/1.3892; 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3738 upleg and psychological / higher platform support at 1.3400, seen in extension, with 200SMA at 1.3370 expected to come in near-term focus. Negative technicals on the larger picture favor further downside.
Res: 1.3508; 1.3540; 1.3580; 1.3600
Sup: 1.3478; 1.3457; 1.3435; 1.3400
GBPUSD
Cable remains under pressure and ended week in red, as the third wave of the weakness from 1.6668 that commenced from 1.6623, met its 100% expansion at 1.6427, with price probing below psychological / higher platform support at 1.6400. Break lower to open 1.6352, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, ahead of key near-term support at 1.6307, 17 Jan low, extension to which to confirm full-retracement of 1.6307/1.6667 upleg, with break lower to confirm reversal off 1.6668 and spark stronger correction of broader uptrend that started from 1.48 base. Near-term technicals remain negative, with daily studies building bearish momentum and keeping the downside in near-term focus. Initial resistances lay at 1.6440 and 1.6480, with psychological 1.65 barrier expected to cap corrective rallies.
Res: 1.6440; 1.6480; 1.6500; 1.6525
Sup: 1.6379; 1.6336; 1.6307; 1.6260
USDJPY
The pair remains in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low of 27 Jan at 101.75, with basing attempt seen at 102 support and upside attempts capped at 102.40. Negative tone prevails on lower timeframes studies and keeps the downside under pressure, as long as initial 102.40 barrier caps. Any extension higher would shift focus towards the upper range boundary at 103 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 104.83/101.75 / 4-hour 55SMA, above to sideline downside risk and expose pivotal 103.43 barrier, 29 Jan lower top. Otherwise, risk of losing 102.00 and 101.75 handles would remain in play, with fresh bearish extension seen towards strong support at 101.00, round figure support, 50% retracement of 96.55/105.43 ascend and daily 100SMA.
Res: 102.40; 102.80; 103.00; 103.43
Sup: 101.83; 101.75; 101.60; 101.00
AUDUSD
The pair continues to trade within one-week 0.8700/0.8820 range, with neutral tone prevailing in near-term studies. Break of either side of the range is required to define near-term direction, as break higher would signal an end of consolidative phase and resume recovery off 0.8658, with key near-term barrier at 0.8886, 22 Jan high, expected to come in focus. Alternatively, loss of range floor and higher low at 0.8700, which was briefly tested last Friday, would weaken the structure and re-expose key support at 0.8658, 24 Jan fresh low, below which would trigger extension of multi-year downtrend from 1.1079, 2011 peak.
Res: 0.8800; 0.8824; 0.8871; 0.8886
Sup: 0.8737; 0.8709; 0.8676; 0.8658
EURUSD
The Euro trades in near-term corrective phase, off fresh low at 1.3475, where the basing attempt is under way. Positive hourly structure, improved on regain and close above 1.35 handle sees potential for further upside, as the price attempts above yesterday’s highs at 1.3534. Extension to last Friday’s high at 1.3572, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3738/1.3475 descend, is required to confirm near-term bottom and open way for further recovery, however, limited upside action is seen on negative larger timeframes studies. Strong barrier at 1.3 zone, 50% retracement / daily cloud base / Tenkan-sen line, reinforced by daily 20 and 100SMA’s, is seen capping upside attempts for now. On the downside, first support lies at 1.3503, ahead of more significant 1.3475 platform, loss of which to signal resumption of bear-leg from 1.3738 and open 1.3457, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2754/1.3892; 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3738 upleg and psychological / higher platform support at 1.3400.
Res: 1.3540; 1.3572; 1.3600; 1.3638
Sup: 1.3503; 1.3475; 1.3457; 1.3435
GBPUSD
Cable remains under strong, as fresh acceleration through psychological 1.64 support, eventually broke below key near-term support and higher low at 1.6307, completing 1.6307/1.6668 bull-leg. Loss of pivotal 1.6307 support, signals further correction of larger 1.5853/1.6668 rally, as the fall cracked 50% retracement at 1.6262, with next targets standing at: 1.6236, 100SMA; 1.6215, daily cloud base; 1.6200, round figure and 1.6164, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Overall bearish tone keeps downside firmly in focus, with weakness to be interrupted by corrective rallies on oversold near-term technicals. Previous low at 1.6307 offers initial resistance, ahead of 1.6365, yesterday’s intraday high, with 1.6400 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6623/1.6255 downleg, expected to limit upside attempts.
Res: 1.6315; 1.6365; 1.6400; 1.6440
Sup: 1.6255; 1.6236; 1.6215; 1.6200
USDJPY
The pair came under increased pressure after recovery attempts were capped under 103 barrier and fresh acceleration lower broke below near-term base at 101.75. Fresh bears took out another strong support at 101, 50% retracement of 96.55/105.43 ascend and daily 100SMA, on extension to 100.74 so far. Near-term consolidative phase is under way, with limited upside action seen on overall negative picture. Previous lows at 101.75/83, along with psychological 102.00 barrier, offer solid resistance and should ideally cap recovery rallies, before fresh leg lower. Extension below 100.74 is expected to open psychological 100 support, reinforced by 200SMA.
Res: 101.37; 101.57; 101.75; 102.00
Sup: 100.74; 100.72; 100.00; 99.56
AUDUSD
The pair eventually broke above one week congestion tops at 0.8820 zone, with acceleration higher, clearing another important barrier at 0.8886, 22 Jan lower top and cracking psychological 0.89 barrier. Near-term technicals turned positive on a rally and see scope for further recovery, as the pair has established fresh direction after being congested within 0.8700/0.8820 rage. Immediate target lies at 0.8921, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9084/0.8658 downleg, ahead of 0.8983, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement and psychological 0.9000 barrier, also 03 Jan high, seen in extension. Overbought hourly conditions, however, suggest consolidative/corrective action preceding fresh push higher, with previous range tops at 0.8820 zone, expected to contain.
Res: 0.8913; 0.8921; 0.8983; 0.9000
Sup: 0.8860; 0.8824; 0.8800; 0.8770
EURUSD
The Euro is unchanged and moves within narrow consolidative range of 1.3490 and 1.3535, with hourly studies in neutral mode. Overall negative tone, however, keeps the downside at pressure, as corrective attempt from 1.3475 low is so far capped by falling 4-hour 20SMA, keeping more significant barriers at 1.3580 and 1.3600 intact for now. Fresh weakness below 1.3500/1.3475 supports to open 1.3457, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2754/1.3892 then 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3738 upleg and psychological / higher platform support at 1.3400 in extension. On the upside, break above pivotal 1.3600 resistance zone, 50% retracement of 1.3738/1.3475 / daily Ichimoku cloud base, would provide relief.
Res: 1.3540; 1.3572; 1.3600; 1.3638
Sup: 1.3492; 1.3475; 1.3457; 1.3435
GBPUSD
Cable rides on the fourth, corrective wave, as a part of larger downtrend from 1.6668, 24 Jan peak, after the third wave extended below its 161.8% expansion and ended at 1.6255. The fourth wave could travel to 1.6400 barrier, where gains should be ideally capped, with the fifth wave expected to extend towards 1.6200/1.6150 zone, where daily cloud base and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5853/1.6668, offer supports. Only break above 1.6400 barrier would delay bears and allow for stronger recovery towards 1.6440/80 barriers.
Res: 1.6343; 1.6400; 1.6440; 1.6500
Sup: 1.6289; 1.6255; 1.6236; 1.6215
USDJPY
The pair enters near-term corrective mode after finding good support at 100.74, with corrective rally being capped by previous low at 101.75, also hourly 55SMA. With hourly studies losing traction and 4-hour technicals maintaining negative tone, upside attempts are seen limited and downside risk remains in play. Violation of initial 101 support is expected to open hourly double-bottom at 100.74, loss of which to resume broader bears off 105.43 and expose psychological 100 support, reinforced by 50% retracement of 96.55/105.43 rally and 200SMA. Only break above psychological 102 barrier and 102.50, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, would delay bears.
Res: 101.75; 102.00; 102.50; 102.92
Sup: 101.00; 100.74; 100.42; 100.00
AUDUSD
The pair trades in near-term consolidative phase, after fresh bulls were triggered on a break above one week congestion tops at 0.8820 zone, with acceleration through important barrier at 0.8886, 22 Jan lower top and psychological 0.89 barrier, posting fresh 3-week high at 0.8940. The pullback off 0.8940 was so far contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 0.8870 that marks consolidation floor, however, weakening hourly studies cannot rule out further easing. Next support lies at 0.8859, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8729/0.8940 upleg and 0.8835, 50% retracement, with dips expected to hold above previous congestion tops at 0.8820 zone, to keep fresh bulls in play. Extension of the uptrend through temporary cap at 0.8940 is expected to focus 0.9000, psychological resistance / 03 Jan high and key barrier at 0.9084, 13 Jan peak, in extension.
Res: 0.8906; 0.8940; 0.8983; 0.9000
Sup: 0.8870; 0.8859; 0.8824; 0.8800
EURUSD
The Euro holds neutral near-term tone, fluctuating within three-day range, with spikes above range tops showing lack of strength for more significant action higher and attempt at pivotal 1.3580/1.3600 barriers. Neutral hourlies and still weak 4-hour studies, see scope for prolonged sideways movements, with today’s ECB release expected to trigger stronger action. Break above strong 1.36 resistance zone, daily 20/100SMA’s bear-cross; daily Tenkan-sen line and mid-point of 1.3738/1.3475 fall, would spark stronger rally and mark near-term bottom. Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 1.3638, offers next barrier, ahead of 1.3680 and 1.3700. On the downside, violation of range floor at 1.35 zone, to open 1.3475 base and signal resumption of bear-phase from 1.3892, 27 Dec peak. Negative daily studies support bearish scenario for now.
Res: 1.3538; 1.3554; 1.3572; 1.3600
Sup: 1.3492; 1.3475; 1.3457; 1.3435
GBPUSD
Cable entered near-term consolidative phase, as the fourth wave off 1.6255 low, lacked strength for extension towards its ideal cap at 1.6400. Price action is congested between 1.6255 and 1.6343 range, with neutral hourly tone confirming sideways mode. However, prevailing negative tone on larger timeframes keeps the downside pressured and sees scope for resumption of larger bear-trend from 1.6668 peak, after completion of consolidative phase. Break below 1.6255 support to open 1.6215, daily cloud base and 1.6165, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5853/1.6668 upleg. Only bounce through 1.64 hurdle, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6623/1.6255 and 4-hour 55SMA, would delay immediate bears and open 1.6440, 50% retracement and 1.6480, 61.8% instead.
Res: 1.6343; 1.6400; 1.6440; 1.6480
Sup: 1.6255; 1.6236; 1.6215; 1.6165
USDJPY
The pair remains in near-term corrective phase off 100.74, with corrective rally being capped by previous low at 101.75, also 4-hour 20SMA. Lack of strength to break above 101.75 hurdle, keeps near-term price action in sideways mode. Hourly studies are in neutral mode, while 4-hour technicals remain weak that sees upside attempts limited and downside risk remaining in play. Violation of initial 101 support is expected to open hourly double-bottom at 100.74, loss of which to resume broader bears off 105.43 and expose psychological 100 support, reinforced by 50% retracement of 96.55/105.43 rally and 200SMA. Only break above psychological 102 barrier and 102.50, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, would delay bears.
Res: 101.75; 102.00; 102.50; 102.92
Sup: 101.30; 101.00; 100.74; 100.42
AUDUSD
The pair resumed bulls after ending near-term consolidative phase below 0.8940, with fresh extension higher, approaching next targets at 0.8983, Fibonacci 76.4% of 0.9084/0.8658 and 0.9000, 0.9000, psychological barrier / 03 Jan high. Positive near-term technicals keep the upside favored, with clearance of 0.9000 handle, expected to open way for full retracement of 0.9084/0.8658 descend. Regain of key 0.9084 resistance is required to confirm base and possibly spark stronger correction that would sideline overall bears, as daily studies show strong bullish momentum. Previous highs at 0.8940, offer initial support, ahead 0.8900, round figure / hourly 55SMA and 0.8870, higher low / daily Kijun-sen line, where dips should find solid support.
Res: 0.8983; 0.9000; 0.9056; 0.9084
Sup: 0.8940; 0.8900; 0.8870; 0.8830
EURUSD
The Euro has established positive near-term tone on a bounce from 1.3480 zone, where the pair built a base. Extension above 1.36 barrier retraced over 61.8% of 1.3738/1.3475 downleg, on extension to 1.3642, keeping the upside in near-term focus. Fresh strength attempts to cover overnight minor gap, to extend the upleg from 1.3550 higher low, towards next hurdles at 1.3680/1.3700, 50% of 1.3892/1.3475 / 14 Jan peak, clearance of which to expose important resistance and breakpoint at 1.3735, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / 24 Jan peak and daily cloud top. Near-term studies remain positive and support further bulls. Initial support lies at 1.3615, session low, ahead of 1.3600 support, daily Kijun-sen line, near daily cloud base and 1.3580, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3482/1.3642 rally, where corrective dips should be ideally contained. Only break below 1.3550 higher low would neutralize near-term bulls.
Res: 1.3642; 1.3635; 1.3680; 1.3700
Sup: 1.3615; 1.3600; 1.3580; 1.3550
GBPUSD
Cable’s near-term structure improved, as the price broke above 1.6350 congestion top and probed above 1.64 barrier, where near-term consolidation is under way. Fresh bulls on 4-hour chart are supportive for further recovery towards Fibonacci resistances of 50% and 61.8% of 1.6623/1.6250 at 1.6437 and 1.6481. However, regain of 1.6500 barrier is required to shift focus towards the upper limits of near-term congestion. Otherwise, more downside risk could be anticipated in case of failure to sustain break above 1.64 handle. Overbought hourly studies warn of correction, with previous range tops at 1.6350, also near Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6250/1.6426 rally, seen as ideal reversal point.
Res: 1.6426; 1.6437; 1.6481; 1.6500
Sup: 1.6390; 1.6359; 1.6338; 1.6300
USDJPY
The pair remains in near-term corrective phase off 100.74, with fresh extension higher peaking at 102.63, above 38.2% retracement of 105.43/100.74 descend. Overnight gap-higher was expected to confirm bulls, however, pullback that filled the gap and pressures psychological 102 support, suggests more significant corrective action. Break below 102 handle, also near 38.2% of 100.79/102.63 rally, reinforced by hourly 55SMA, would be seen as a trigger for further easing towards 101.75, previous congestion top and 50% retracement and 101.50, 61.8%, below which bears are expected to take control. Resumption of the uptrend through 102.63 peak, opens lower top at 102.92 and 103.09, 50% retracement of 105.43/100.74 and key near-term barrier at 103.43, 29 Jan lower top in extension.
Res: 102.45; 102.63; 102.92; 103.09
Sup: 101.90; 101.75; 101.50; 101.00
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates recent gains that peaked ticks below psychological 0.9000 barrier, with near-term price action being so far contained at 0.8920. Hourly studies, however, are turning negative and 4-hour indicators losing traction that indicates corrective action in the near-term. Break below initial 0.8920/00 supports, is expected to open hourly higher base 0.8870, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8658/0.8998 ascend and reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA, where the pullback should find a footstep and keep near-term bulls in play. On the upside, lift above 0.9000 barrier is required to open key resistance at 0.9084, 13 Jan peak, while alternative scenario sees loss of 0.8870 handle as a trigger for further easing that would sideline near-term bulls.
Res: 0.8998; 0.9056; 0.9084; 0.9100
Sup: 0.8920; 0.8900; 0.8870; 0.8820
EURUSD
The Euro moves in the fourth corrective wave, after the third wave off 1.3550 higher low, met its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3680. Corrective pullback should be ideally contained at 1.3620 zone, equivalent to the length of the second wave, near 50% retracement of 1.3550/1.3682 upleg and broken bull-trendline off 1.3738, to keep immediate bulls intact. The fifth wave is expected to travel to its initial target at 1.3740, 138.2% expansion and previous peak of 24 Jan, above which to open significant 1.38 resistance zone. Alternatively, slide below 1.36 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3550/1.3682, would neutralize wave principles and trigger fresh weakness towards 1.3550, 02 Feb higher low and 1.35 base in extension.
Res: 1.3682; 1.3700; 1.3738; 1.3800
Sup: 1.3620; 1.3600; 1.3580; 1.3550
GBPUSD
Cable’s near-term structure remains positive, as the price eventually broke above near-term congestion between 1.6380 and 1.6435, peaking at 1.6486 so far. Positive near-term studies support attempt through psychological 1.65 barrier, near 61.8% retracement of 1.6668/1.6250 descend, to re-focus key resistances at 1.6623 and 1.6668, 28 / 24 Jan peak and confirm base at 1.6250. Daily cloud top at 1.6434 offers immediate support, ahead of strong 1.6400/1.6380 support zone, where 4-hour 20/55SMA’s bull-cross underpins.
Res: 1.6433; 1.6459; 1.6500; 1.6524
Sup: 1.6438; 1.6400; 1.6380; 1.6340
USDJPY
The pair remains steady and posted marginally higher high at 102.69 on extension of corrective phase off 100.74. Consolidative action is signaled by reversing hourly indicators, however, overall bullish tone keeps the upside in focus, with next targets at 102.84 and 103.09, Jan lower top / Fibonacci 50% of 105.43/100.74 and key 103.43 lower top of 29 Jan, seen in extension. To maintain positive structure, higher base at 102 zone, should keep the downside protected. Otherwise, break lower would weaken the structure and trigger fresh weakness.
Res: 102.69; 102.92; 103.09; 103.43
Sup: 102.35; 102.00; 101.75; 101.50
AUDUSD
The pair resumes rally from 0.8658 low and stabilizes above psychological 0.9000 barrier. Fresh bulls approach key near-term barrier at 0.9084, 13 Jan peak / near Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658, to complete 0.9084/0.8658 bear-phase and confirm near-term base for further retracement of multi-month descend from 0.9755 to 0.8658. Positive near-term studies support the notion. Corrective dips would face solid support at 0.9000, where the price built a higher base, also 38.2% retracement of 0.8906/0.9066 upleg, with key support and pivotal point laying at 0.8900 higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the entire 0.8658/0.9066 rally.
Res: 0.9066; 0.9084; 0.9100; 0.9165
Sup: 0.9046; 0.9000; 0.8965; 0.8940
EURUSD
The Euro nearly fully recovered yesterday’s losses, when the price accelerated lower after losing 1.3620/00 support. Sharp fall found support at 1.3561, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3482/1.3682 rally, with subsequent bounce to 1.3636 so far, marking 61.8% retracement of two-legged descend from 1.3682 to 1.3561. Hourly studies are weak, while 4-hour indicators stand at their midlines. Regain of yesterday’s high at 1.3651 is required to confirm reversal and avert risk of lower top formation and fresh slide, as the price broke above bear-trendline off 1.3680 peak. Initial support at 1.3600, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3561/1.3636 upleg and hourly 10/20 SMA’s bull-cross, should ideally contain corrective dips. Break above 1.3651 to confirm higher low at 1.3561 and re-focus peaks at 1.3680 zone. Alternatively, loss of 1.36 handle would keep near-term bears in play. Next supports lay at 1.358 higher base / daily Tenkan-sen and key level at 1.3561, yesterday’s low.
Res: 1.3651; 1.3682; 1.3700; 1.3738
Sup: 1.3600; 1.3580; 1.3561; 1.3530
GBPUSD
The pair maintains bullish near-term structure, with eventual break above psychological 1.66 barrier, signals attempt for full retracement of 1.6668/1.6250 bear-leg. As the price regains the last hurdle at 1.6623, the way opens towards 1.6668, year-to date high and break here to trigger resumption of multi-month uptrend from 1.4812, 2013 low, towards next hurdles at 1.6737/45, 2011 peaks. Positive near-term studies are supportive, with hesitation on approach to the key barrier at 1.6668, seen on overbought lower timeframes studies. Key near-term supports lay at 1.6500/1.6480 and should contain any stronger pullbacks.
Res: 1.6668; 1.6700; 1.6737; 1.6745
Sup: 1.6600; 1.6570; 1.6534; 1.6500
USDJPY
The pair remains within near-term consolidative range, with near-term studies losing traction, as the price cracked the range floor at 102 zone, following repeated upside rejection at 102.69. Hourly indicators moved into negative territory, with 4-hour studies losing momentum that keeps the downside at risk. Firm break below 102 handle, also 38.2% retracement of 100.74/102.69 corrective rally, would further weaken the structure for extension towards supports at 101.50, Fibonacci 61.8% and 101.20 higher low, to confirm lower top formation. On the upside, clearance of initial 102.69 barrier and regain of 102.92/103.07 hurdle is required to neutralize and signal resumption of near-term recovery rally from 100.74 low.
Res: 102.20; 102.69; 102.92; 103.09
Sup: 101.95; 101.75; 101.50; 101.20
AUDUSD
The pair fell sharply after losing 0.9000 handle, with acceleration lower, finding support at 0.8926, where daily 55SMA contained fall, keeping important 0.8900 support, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8658/0.9066 rally intact for now. Near-term studies are weaker, however, bulls are still present on 4-hour chart studies that keeps larger picture bullish outlook intact for fresh attempt higher. Bounce requires regain of 0.9000 barrier, also 50% of entire 0.9066/0.8926 fall, to avert downside risk and confirm higher low at 0.8926. Conversely, loss of 0.89 handle, would further weaken near-term tone and signal further correction, with next good support laying at 0.8870, 05 Feb higher low / daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bull-cross.
Res: 0.8980; 0.9000; 0.9033; 0.9066
Sup: 0.8926; 0.8900; 0.8870; 0.8824
EURUSD
The Euro remains steady and eventually broke above psychological / daily cloud top 1.37 barrier, on fresh extension to 1.3723. Clearance of the last obstacle at 1.3715, 27 Jan high, opens way towards key barrier and 24 Jan peak at 1.3738 and near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3892/1.3475 descend. Completion of 1.3738/1.3475 bear-phase is expected to trigger fresh rally, as the third wave that commenced from 1.3561 higher low, broke above its 76.4% expansion, aiming towards 1.3765, 100% Fibonacci expansion, regain of which to validate wave principles. The wave could travel to 1.3842, its 138.2% expansion, once 1.3765 barrier is cleared, with interim resistances laying at 1.38 zone, previous tops of Oct/Dec 2013. Technical outlook is positive and favors further upside, with consolidative phase near 1.37 handle, expected to precede fresh leg higher. Initial support lies at 1.3680, previous peak / minor platform, ahead of 1.3660, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3561/1.3723, where dips should find solid support.
Res: 1.3723; 1.3738; 1.3765; 1.3800
Sup: 1.3680; 1.3660; 1.3620; 1.3600
GBPUSD
The pair continues to trend higher, with completion of 1.6668/1.6250 corrective phase, sparking fresh extension that rallied through the next targets at 1.6737/45, also cracking psychological 1.6800 resistance. Strong bulls are expected to pause for corrective pullback, as 4-hour studies are overextended and hourly RSI emerging from overbought territory. Corrective action faces initial supports at 1.6700 and previous peaks at 1.6670 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6424/1.6821 upleg, where dips should be ideally contained. On the upside, next target lies at 1.6877, Nov 2009 peak, above which to expose psychological 1.7000 resistance. Only stronger pullback below 1.66 handle, also Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1.6250/1.6821 rally, would sideline near-term bulls.
Res: 1.6800; 1.6821; 1.6877; 1.6900
Sup: 1.6730; 1.6700; 1.6670; 1.6620
USDJPY
The pair remains under pressure, as fresh weakness below102.00/101.75 handles, retraced over 61.8% of 100.74/102.69 upleg, on a dip to 101.37 so far, after the price cracked daily cloud base at 101.44. Near-term structure is negative and keeps the risk of extension below 101.20, Fibonacci 76.4% / 100SMA and psychological 100.00 support, for retest of key near-term support and base at 100.70 zone. Corrective actions, however, are expected to interrupt bears, with initial barrier at 102.00, lower platform / 50% of 102.69/101.37 descend, ahead of 102.20, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Only break above 102.39, 14 Feb lower top / daily 20SMA, would improve near-term structure and shift focus towards 102.69 peak.
Res: 102.00; 102.39; 102.69; 102.92
Sup: 101.70; 101.37; 101.20; 101.00
AUDUSD
The pair holds positive near-term tone, as rally from 0.8926, 13 Feb low, reached 0.9068, fully retracing corrective 0.9066/0.8926 phase. Positive near-term technicals are supportive for renewed attempt at key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.9084, 13 Jan high, clearance of which to complete 0.9084/0.8658 bear-phase and confirm base for possible stronger recovery. Break higher to open 0.9100, ahead of 0.9149, 100SMA and 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 high. Corrective actions face good support at 0.9000 zone, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8926/0.9068 upleg, with stronger pullback required to hold above strong 0.89 support zone, higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of entire recovery rally from 0.8658 to 0.9068.
Res: 0.9068; 0.9084; 0.9100; 0.9149
Sup: 0.9000; 0.8964; 0.8926; 0.8900
EURUSD
The Euro remains in consolidative sideways mode around 1.37 handle, confirmed by yesterday’s Doji candle. The price action moves within 1.3690/1.3723 range, with neutral tone prevailing on hourly studies. On the other side, bullish 4-hour structure keeps the upside favored for fresh extension through pivotal 1.3738 peak, to resume larger uptrend off 1.3480 zone, towards targets at 1.3765, Fibonacci 100 expansion of the wave from 1.3561 and previous congestion tops at 1.38 zone in extension. The downside is for now protected by hourly 55SMA, with possible further easing required to hold above 1.3660, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3561/1.3723 upleg / bull-trendline off 1.3482, to keep near-term bulls intact.
Res: 1.3723; 1.3738; 1.3765; 1.3800
Sup: 1.3690; 1.3660; 1.3620; 1.3600
GBPUSD
The pair enters corrective phase after fresh bulls cracked 1.68 barrier and peaked at 1.6821, levels last time visited in Nov 2009. Corrective easing probed 1.67 handle, with dips being so far contained by hourly 55SMA. Hourly indicators are reversing higher, while positive 4-hour studies maintain overall bullish tone. However, further easing through 1.6670, previous peaks and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6424/1.6821, would keep near-term bulls in play, while the price holds above 1.66 handle, 38.2% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 rally. Extension above 1.6821 opens next targets at 1.6877, Nov 2009 peak and 1.6900, break of which to bring psychological 1.7000 resistance in focus.
Res: 1.6800; 1.6821; 1.6877; 1.6900
Sup: 1.6694; 1.6670; 1.6620; 1.6600
USDJPY
The price accelerated higher from 101.75 higher low and fully retraced 102.69/101.37 descend on extension to 102.73 so far. This sidelines downside risk and turns near-term focus higher, as 4-hour indicators are breaking into positive territory. Sustained break above 102.70 is required to confirm higher low at 101.75 and resume recovery off 100.74, towards 103.09, 50% retracement of 105.43/100.74 descend and lower top of 29 Jan at 103.43 in extension. However, overbought hourly conditions suggest corrective action should precede fresh rally, with 102.20, Fibonacci 38.2% of 101.37/102.73, seen as ideal reversal point to keep fresh bulls intact. Alternatively, extension below 102 handle, round figure support / 50% retracement, is expected to neutralize bulls.
Res: 102.69; 102.92; 103.09; 103.43
Sup: 102.40; 102.20; 102.00; 101.75
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates recent gains off 0.8926 low that peaked at 0.9079. Consolidative range is established within 0.9015 and 0.9079, with near-term term price action being near the lower boundary, following repeated upside rejection that left marginally higher high at 0.9079. Further easing below 0.9000 handle and trendline support at 0.8990 would delay immediate bulls and keep the price within larger congestion of 0.8900/0.9079 and only break below 0.8900 zone, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8658/0.9079 would neutralize. Near-term studies are losing traction and support such scenario. However, overall bullish tone sees fresh extension of recovery rally, once consolidative action is completed. Break above pivotal 0.9084 barrier to open 0.9146, 100SMA and 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 high.
Res: 0.9079; 0.9084; 0.9146; 0.9165
Sup: 0.9013; 0.9000; 0.8984; 0.8926