TMA&Cycles - page 3
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Sure
Hi Simba,
Firstly thank you for the reply regarding the D1 figure and also the "warning" about using a lower TF than H4. I do appreciate all of your expertise believe me, but my research instinct drove me to look at the M30/M5 combination and it most certainly warrants a further investigation as far as I am concerned. I will continue to work with H4/D1 though as I also take my direction from H8/H4/H2 in order to help me make an informed decision.
Having said that, I am sorry to tell you that you have confused me with your #point 4. in your 3rd chart regarding the calculations and I respectfully draw your attention to it:
4-Set the new atr multiplier to approx square root of the periods ratiomultiplied by previous(h4) atr... ..It is very easy ..D1/h4=6..so sqr root of 6 approx 2.5,previous atr was 2.0..so,now we set the new atr multiplier to 5(2.5*2)
You refer to "the periods ratio" and the way I was taught maths, it means the ratio between D1 and H4 "multiplied by previous (h4) atr" and then I do not get your results. Your mischievous smiles certainly did their thing
.
Would you mind just "spelling it out" for me?
Please use the H4/D1 example as per your first posts.
Thanking you sincerely.Sure,
1-Periods ratio d1=24 h...h4= 4h..D1/H4=24/4=6
2-Approx Square root of 6= approx 2.5
3-Previous h4 atr =2.0(the one we used on the TMA Bands for h4)
4-square root of periods ratio*previous atr= 2.5* 2 =5
Hope that now it is clear...If it is not,please say so.
M30/M5..OK,I would like to see somebody being able to do the profit magic(JM Hurst words
) on lower timeframes,I can`t..only as a fit into the h4 or h4/h1 combo,Yes,I can Trigger a better entry on m5,but I can`t trade these methods just on m30/m5..BTW,J M Hurst had a 92% hit rate,recorded,trading stocks with this and cycle nesting methods...he traded weekly charts.
I won`t smile anymore ....At least until October 2nd
Regards
S
Thank you..
Thank you Simba.
I do not dispute the validity of the H4/D1 combination, it is just that I have based my trading on the H1 with entries on M5, but with what you have just taught me, I will become a better trader in time to come using your higher TFs. (I guess it is a "head thing"
)
Thank you for explaining the periods - I was not thinking about periods being TF-periods and was therefore confused and complicated issues unnecessarily.
Will be in touch.
Thanking you...
Hi Simba,
Thank you so much for being willing to share your knowledge with me; I do appreciate your time and expertise.
I miss the point about the D1 cycle period for which I apologise - I misunderstood you, but now I should be able to feel my way through it all.
From what I have seen today, it can work successfully on the M5/M30 ratio and I thank you for helping me get there.
I will keep you posted as to how I am doing this week as I intend incorporating it into my trading charts.
Enjoy your day; until tomorrow DV.
Best regards.
ValeoFx
1-It is Ok for you to pursue m30/m5,no problem here,just the opposite.
2-I used 30 days because that was the cycle period for D1.
3-Your settings for M5 are ok.
4-Your settings for m30 are not:if cycle is 40 m30 periods..this means 40*6=240 m5 periods,so,the halflength should be 120.
5-Approx square root of 6 is 2.5,so,if your fit for m5 is 3 atrs,7.5 atrs for the bigger bands is ok..BUT HERE WE SEE THE PROBLEM WITH M5..TOO MUCH NOISE
Hope this helped,basically use halflength 120 for your big bands,everything else equal,and if doesn`t fit,use 2 atrs for inner bands and 5 atrs for outer bands.
Please keep posting.
Regards
SH8-chart...
Hello Simba,
As I mentioned to you, I take my readings from the H8 chart in the mornings rather than the D1 as I trade at least 75% of the 3 Time Periods and I get more accurate signals IMO from the H8.
So I "reworked" the H4/D1 set-up and came up with the following attached chart for your kind perusal and comment, please.
#A. Where both channels were penetrated by the price with the ensuing change of direction / Trend.
#B. Where we are now faced with the same situation of reversal. (I tried to upload this early this morning but my IE crashed so you see an after effect now unfortunately) but also happy to inform you that I made +118 pips on the ensuing Long.
#C , #D and #E are good examples PLUS the fact that the Gann Grid kept the price action quite nicely contained if you look at the Aqua-line from beyond #C to #E.
So, thank you again for being willing to share such excellent methods which can assist one in making an informed decision.
Looking forward to hearing from you.
Best wishes.
Comments
Hello Simba,
As I mentioned to you, I take my readings from the H8 chart in the mornings rather than the D1 as I trade at least 75% of the 3 Time Periods and I get more accurate signals IMO from the H8.
So I "reworked" the H4/D1 set-up and came up with the following attached chart for your kind perusal and comment, please.
#A. Where both channels were penetrated by the price with the ensuing change of direction / Trend.
#B. Where we are now faced with the same situation of reversal. (I tried to upload this early this morning but my IE crashed so you see an after effect now unfortunately) but also happy to inform you that I made +118 pips on the ensuing Long.
#C , #D and #E are good examples PLUS the fact that the Gann Grid kept the price action quite nicely contained if you look at the Aqua-line from beyond #C to #E.
So, thank you again for being willing to share such excellent methods which can assist one in making an informed decision.
Looking forward to hearing from you.
Best wishes.Valeo,
Thanks for your comments.
1-I suggest that you do a visual tester of your system,if you can`t do it h8,h1..do it h4,h1 and see if it still works...the key issue is to check where the bands where at the time of the turn,not several bars after the turn.
2-I have learnt by the school of hard knocks to always enter with price action..In your chart,the only justified entry by PA is the second green bar after the bottom,which closes way above the previous bar close..since you tell me you took 118 pips,I presume that you entered on the extreme....This is not good policy with these bands,unless you used PA at a lower tf,which,IMHO,at a minimum ,must be either H1 or H4...so,if you entered on PA at h1 or h4..well done,excellent trade..If you didn`t,IMHO,excellent trade but bad habit reinforcing itself by success.
3-A very good entry by PA is wait for a good signal On H1 then scale in in thirds..1/3 at the signal,1/3 by using M5,and 1/3 by using either m15 or m1,whatever feels better
..The rationale is that the PA already indicates that the trade has market flow behind it,so,you could even trade on a tick chart with a macd divergence..in the direction of the signal.
Please keep posting..and ,I have a suggestion for you,why don`t you replicate the same situation you just shown us with 2 Renko charts whose boxsize is equal to ATR(100) of H8,H4?See if you find it more or less useful.
Another way to trade the bands is take the centerline direction(down in the higher tf) and anticipate retracements at strong pivot points...FYI,I have pending sell limit orders for
AUDJPY 79.300 (Weekly R1 and Daily R2 very near)
GBPJPY 145.450(Weekly pivot and daily R2 very near)
GBPUSD 1.60710 (Daily R2)
A few times ,these trades are not filled,a few times they are filled and the market keeps going,usually,the ones that get filled will give you very good entry points for a target near the previous bottom..+-the usual fibo or 3 octaves..Usually I use half positions or 1 third positions...In all cases,these trades keep you out of the chop that happens in retracements against the trend.
Try to integrate this kind of thinking to your usual ways,you may find it interesting.....basically there are only 2 good "humanly tradable" moves in an
ABCD leg..AB and CD...trading BC is usally what get us into losses.
If you do fractal simulation of the financial markets,you will see that the basic monad(iterating shape) is always a nonlinear ABCD,with a clear center..All markets,all timeframes...it changes size and shape,but it is always there..please see pic...I took it from a Russian forum,since these forums are the only place in the web where you can coherently learn about fractals and chaos ,related to markets,from people that know and want to share and experiment with a free mind...If you see the 2 circled areas,you will see why,at the right of the chart,a long was the trade to be taken...The left circled area is a generating fractal(parent fractal) and the right one is an iterating fractal(child fractal)...But this off topic,even if extremely interesting.
Back to topic...Obviously you may be thinking that Simba`s BC is Valeo`s AB
....Good...this is the essence of the game.
Regards
S
Valeo,
Thanks for your comments.
1-I suggest that you do a visual tester of your system,if you can`t do it h8,h1..do it h4,h1 and see if it still works...the key issue is to check where the bands where at the time of the turn,not several bars after the turn.
2-I have learnt by the school of hard knocks to always enter with price action..In your chart,the only justified entry by PA is the second green bar after the bottom,which closes way above the previous bar close..since you tell me you took 118 pips,I presume that you entered on the extreme....This is not good policy with these bands,unless you used PA at a lower tf,which,IMHO,at a minimum ,must be either H1 or H4...so,if you entered on PA at h1 or h4..well done,excellent trade..If you didn`t,IMHO,excellent trade but bad habit reinforcing itself by success.
3-A very good entry by PA is wait for a good signal On H1 then scale in in thirds..1/3 at the signal,1/3 by using M5,and 1/3 by using either m15 or m1,whatever feels better
..The rationale is that the PA already indicates that the trade has market flow behind it,so,you could even trade on a tick chart with a macd divergence..in the direction of the signal.
Please keep posting..and ,I have a suggestion for you,why don`t you replicate the same situation you just shown us with 2 Renko charts whose boxsize is equal to ATR(100) of H8,H4?See if you find it more or less useful.
Another way to trade the bands is take the centerline direction(down in the higher tf) and anticipate retracements at strong pivot points...FYI,I have pending sell limit orders for
AUDJPY 79.300 (Weekly R1 and Daily R2 very near)
GBPJPY 145.450(Weekly pivot and daily R2 very near)
GBPUSD 1.60710 (Daily R2)
A few times ,these trades are not filled,a few times they are filled and the market keeps going,usually,the ones that get filled will give you very good entry points for a target near the previous bottom..+-the usual fibo or 3 octaves..Usually I use half positions or 1 third positions...In all cases,these trades keep you out of the chop that happens in retracements against the trend.
Try to integrate this kind of thinking to your usual ways,you may find it interesting.....basically there are only 2 good "humanly tradable" moves in an
ABCD leg..AB and CD...trading BC is usally what get us into losses.
If you do fractal simulation of the financial markets,you will see that the basic monad(iterating shape) is always a nonlinear ABCD,with a clear center..All markets,all timeframes...it changes size and shape,but it is always there..please see pic...I took it from a Russian forum,since these forums are the only place in the web where you can coherently learn about fractals and chaos ,related to markets,from people that know and want to share and experiment with a free mind...If you see the 2 circled areas,you will see why,at the right of the chart,a long was the trade to be taken...The left circled area is a generating fractal(parent fractal) and the right one is an iterating fractal(child fractal)...But this off topic,even if extremely interesting.
Back to topic...Obviously you may be thinking that Simba`s BC is Valeo`s AB
....Good...this is the essence of the game.
Regards
SKinda experimenting with different things including LRC Channel with the bands see how it goes now up around 35 pips on usdcad sell. Had centerline cross even LRC center, maybe get a better idea where move ends on top or bottom of channel. Probably be a weird looking picture experimenting with it also
Just an update, first of all want to say Simba your TMA Cycles rock! Moved sl to break even, been anywhere from 70 to 80 pips up and still a long way to go, waiting for a pullback if I catch it, will add another order, man if only would have entered like I was supposed to at the top of the channel.
Tma
Just an update, first of all want to say Simba your TMA Cycles rock! Moved sl to break even, been anywhere from 70 to 80 pips up and still a long way to go, waiting for a pullback if I catch it, will add another order, man if only would have entered like I was supposed to at the top of the channel.
Tools,
Thanks for your kind comments.
First,I want to say that the TMA Cycles are not mine,they are Brian Millard`s idea...based on JM Hurst work(Hurst used centered smas and Fourier analysis,plus cycle nesting),Brian Millard "improved" the model by using TMAs,keeping the cycle nesting concept..My only ,small,contribution is the way I nest cycles based on the square root of time ratios of the 2 timeframes,and,applying the concepts to CRBs...and this has been possible thanks to mladen and Igorad coding the right indicators.
Regards
S