Eurusd/gbpusd - page 1596
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This was not enough to leave the 1.36 zone. Watching the next 1/2 hour to try to guess what are they doing. But sure seems like another 1.36 level revisit is prepared
This was not enough to leave the 1.36 zone. Watching the next 1/2 hour to try to guess what are they doing. But sure seems like another 1.36 level revisit is prepared
Well they are close
But what might happen is a rebound (if it does not break it)
The volume is so thin that you can feel it
There are 2 algos and 3 traders in the market and that is all
someone on FF follows moon and planet cycles
the last plotted cycle for the Euro was from about the 1st June
so far its proved correct, with sideways movement (more or less) until the 20th and then up (i think)
maybe moon and planet cycles is the way to go, i dunno yet, but will keep an eye on the thread, if i can find it again
The Euro is at Major Weekly support so can't see it falling much further, maybe 200pips and some bigger Daily whipsawing / faking out
and then back up and sideways (again) for the rest of the Summer?
The GBP/USD is n't too far off Major Monthly resistance, maybe something to watchout for, about 1.74 (if i remember correctly)
although don't see huge falls from there, as there is a UK Election in less then 12 months
they are fiddling every possible piece of UK data, so the UK currency (presumably) will be ramped up even further until next May at least
and the Euro will likely follow? (eventually)
i'm still on Holiday
so don't really care either way, although best not to get too rusty
GL
more about the endless buying of the Markets, although should nt complain really, it could be worse
martingale systems have never had it so good
"Don't Fight The GPIs"
June. 22, 2014
by Geoff Bysshe
President, MarketGauge.com
The old stock trader axiom, “Don’t fight the Fed” may need to be updated to, “Don’t fight the GPIs”.
Last week the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum released a report innocently entitled, “Global Public Investors – the new force in markets”. On the surface this is not a very alarming headline, but the contents of the report are much more exciting than the headline suggests.
First, who is the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF)? Based on their own description on their LI (Linked In) page, “The OMFIF is formed around a core of public sector asset and reserve holders at the heart of world finance. OMFIF offers a confidential, convenient and discreet forum to a unique membership of central banks, sovereign funds, financial policy-makers and market participants who interact with them.”
Without being too cynical, I’d like to be a fly on the wall at their gatherings!
Second, what is a “Global Public Investor” (GPI)? As this relates to the report, a GPI is a central bank, public pension fund or sovereign fund. As you may know some of these entities are more transparent in their disclosure of their investments than others, and that’s where the report gets interesting.
This report surveyed 400 GPIs who control $13 trillion at central banks, $9.4tn at public funds, and $6.5tn at sovereign wealth funds. This amounts to assets equal to 40% of world output!
The report would not have received any attention at all had the reference of the GPIs “force in markets” been directed toward global bond markets, but it wasn’t.
The report highlighted they fact that GPIs, and specifically global central banks, are aggressively chasing returns that cannot be found in the bond yields.
As a result, the report concluded, “GPIs as a whole appear to have built up their investments in publicly-quoted equities by at least $1tn in recent years.”
That’s a lot of stock buying.
Reading this caused me to do a little more research, and what I found was that central bank buying of stocks really should not come as any surprise at all.
Many foreign central banks have stated that purchasing publically traded stocks is a part of their policy goals.
To be clear, I’m not implying that the U.S. Fed is buying stocks. However, the report stated that the reason for GPIs moving into stocks was based on a need to find better returns that bonds, and that GPIs where shopping beyond their own borders.
I can’t point to data and charts that illustrates a direct correlation between central banks’ stock purchases and rising equity index prices that is as clear as we’ve seen in all of our Fed’s QE experiences. However, any student of the markets knows that you, “don’t fight the Fed”, and you only need to know the general intentions of the Fed for that rule to apply.
If you take a look at equity markets around the globe (ETFs make that easy to do), it certainly looks clear that we are in a “don’t fight the GPIs” environment right now!
Unfortunately, it is also well known that our own Fed has a habit of overshooting, or sticking with overly accommodative or restrictive policies for too long. I think our Fed is one of the best at its game around the globe, and if that’s is true, we can enjoy the bulls ride in global equity markets, but we can’t expect that the GPIs will know when to take their foot of the gas.
Now I am waiting this bloody thing to finally break 1.36
Worse than watching football
Now I am waiting this bloody thing to finally break 1.36 Worse than watching football
Was waiting 2 hours that it gets her to hit my TP
Could leave it (since it will go upper) but I do not want to wait another 3-4 hours for 2-3 pips
Now, I am going to watch that "bloody football"
This one is not stopping now
this was posted 3rd June
will have to wait until July and see if the predication was any good
this was posted 3rd June
will have to wait until July and see if the predication was any goodJust be careful
Extrapolation is less and less accurate as you are further from the current bar. Gortzel browser, for example, gives sometimes results that you think that it knows the future - to the last pip. But sometimes the results are not so astonishing
Personally, I am not going to hold on short positions (too much FED in the EURUSD exchange rate)