My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 26
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Same here, you'll have to zip it.. I'll read it tomorrow. Need to sleep now... 23.10 here.. Good night.
Thanks, GreatYves. Manage to save the Excel worksheet in html format. I thought xls files can be attached in forums. So in future, I know what to do - save it in html formats.
And good night to you. Sweet dreams.
Kenneth
Hi, Guys:
Tomorrow I shall be putting up my posting on the state of the forex market on a longer term basis, together with the supporting EW charts.
Probably it will be towards the evening as in the morning I am going for an outing with my family.
Have a good weekend
Regards
Kenneth
As you know, i am clearly onto eur/usd case. I scanned all the pairs and none offer a better setup. And I am looking for entry strategie for sunday. Any suggestions? For sure a break of last high at 4376 is a clear entry but i would like to enter lower with a better RR. I could buy right now on Oanda at 4331. I would prefer buying at 4312-4292 with a stop at 4265, a few pips below the 61.8 retracement, 10 pips below last bottom. TP1 4440, TP2 4480.
Let's sleep on it...
As you know, i am clearly onto eur/usd case. I scanned all the pairs and none offer a better setup. And I am looking for entry strategie for sunday. Any suggestions? For sure a break of last high at 4376 is a clear entry but i would like to enter lower with a better RR. I could buy right now on Oanda at 4331. I would prefer buying at 4312-4292 with a stop at 4265, a few pips below the 61.8 retracement, 10 pips below last bottom. TP1 4440, TP2 4480. Let's sleep on it...
Please refer to my Posting #257 on EURUSD.
Kenneth
Attached are the Monthly and Weekly EW charts for EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY.
Before we embark on any short-term trading ie intra-day trading, it is good to take a longer term look at the overall market to see their direction. The Weekly and Monthly charts will serve this purpose. We want to know (1) whether the Weekly and the Monthly synchronize with each other and (2) what is the Wave they are now in. Then only you take the further step of analyzing the currency pair(s) in their short-term time frames of 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, 1 hr or 4 hrs.
EURJPY: The Weekly chart shows it is in Wave 4 Up (Wave 2 and 4 are always contra-trends), whilst the Monthly chart shows only Wave 3. The Wave (4) is added by me as it has already hit Fibonacci ratio of 0.618; For Monthly Charts, from experience when prices retrace to 0.618 level, one can conclude the retracement is more or less over.
Finally, taking a look at its daily bar chart, I think it has started to go down.
EURUSD: The Weekly Chart shows after it has completed its Wave 5, it went into a Corrective mode with a complex formation having 2 sets of A/B/Cs. The second set of A/B/C has completed its Wave C. Whether this Wave C will continue to go up or not is difficult to say, based on the Weekly Chart as formations in Corrective mode can turn out to be very complex patterns.
So the next best thing to do is to look at its Monthly chart; It does not look that bright. The reason why recently it can go up is because it was doing a smaller wave C inside the Corrective Wave B (which consists of another smaller wave A, B, C.). Now having completed its Corrective Wave B, it is going into its Wave C down. In another words, over a longer term, the EURUSD will go down.
Personally, I would rather stay aside.
Looking at the MT4 platform chart using 5 min for analysis purpose, minor Wave 3 has completed and it is now retracing to the FR 0.382 level. Further, I use the PARABOLIC SAR on the 5 min chart, it does not look enticing, as it is showing a downtrrend and heading for FR 0.618 as its Wave 4. So, if you want to enter, you enter when it hits FR 0.618 level around 1.4326
However, using GreatYves SHORT-TERM table of Wave Degrees, Trend and Waves, it is the first time I saw an analysis that shows 5 positives and 5 Ups. Too rare an opportunity to miss despite what I have written above.
Entering at 1.4326 and exiting at 1.4415 as per the above table will give us a profit of 89 pips over a risk of 59 pipe – a R/R of 1.5x which, for short-term purposes, is still ok. The Stop Loss of 59 pips compared with the last 5 days of Open to Low is a reasonable figure. If your Stop Loss is around 30 pips, it is likely it will be triggered.
This is NOT an invitation for readers to trade. It is more of my own opinion as I examined the charts before me.
GBPJPY: The Weekly chart shows it is in Corrective Wave 4 whilst the Monthly chart shows it is on its way to Wave 4 (contra-trend up). As it has not touched the FR of 0.50 and 0.618, there is still a possibility it will go up further on a longer term basis.
GBPUSD: The same remarks apply to this currency pair as well.
USDJPY: The Weekly shows it has completed its Wave 4 whilst the Monthly shows Wave 4 is in formation. Wave 4 is a Contra-Trend and as long as it has not hit the FR resistance levels, it still has the chance of going up.
Conclusion: Looking at the overall scenarios of these 5 currency pairs, I can say in general the Monthly and Weekly charts are in tune with each other. All are in their Corrective Phase of Wave 4 (whether completed or in formation).
My learning of Elliott Wave Theory tells me that we do not trade Corrective moods because of its complexity of formations. If you feel you know how to trade this phase, please go ahead at your own risk and pleasure.
Kenneth
I will stick to elwave interpretation wich is still bullish. On every wave count.
If we look at it strickly with trend following method, applying a 10 SMA envellope we can see it's breaching the envelopes on the up side on all time frames from the monthly to the M15. Strictly for that i will go long, eyes closed. But maybe with a stop more based on the daily time frame. This mean that i shall wait and see tonight price action.