My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 21
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I know what Crisstoff want to say, on the short term, a crash in stock market means, selling stock-->> buying US. The immediate actions is that US go UP due to liquidity shortage. But on the long term the reverse effect happen since investors looks for safe havens to their cash liquidity. Then the market become (will become) overflown with US liqudity. Theirs so much cash around that the US WILL go down. It's simply the law of offer and demand. It might be simply be said but that's the way i understand it.
GreatYves,
Yes, exactly.
Long term movements in Forex are determined by economic fundamentals, short term movements are influenced by liquidity (money flow from one investment instrument to another), psychology (rumors, beliefs, expectations) and market movers' (banks, big investment funds) intention.
We, traders try to find out from all of filtered info that comes through from the sources listed above (via fundamental and technical analysis) where the price is going to go...
Regards,
Chrisstoff
Morning, Guys:
No EW Charts from me today. Give me an excuse to be more relaxed this morning.
Over the weekend Sat and Sun, we were overloaded with Charts – Daily and Weekly and even Charts for Dow, SP500, etc. comparing in crisscross all the changes that are taking place in our currency pairs. Hope readers did not end up with a headache.
And with Chrisstoff and GreatYves joining in the discussions, things have become livelier. Gives us further insight into factors to consider when we want to get involved in forex trading.
These charts will be relevant today.
So, what is the conclusion? What are you going to trade today? Buy, Sell, Step Aside and which currency pairs will you go for?
I believe GreatYves is clear-cut enough to go for EURUSD with his 1-hour analysis.
I stick to my trading plan and go LONG on GBPJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDJPY for the reasons I have given yesterday in my posting. At time of writing, have not placed my orders yet though I normally do so on the opening price. Today, I follow the trading rule BUY ON DIPS in an Uptrend and wait for further FR retracement before I act. And I shall be quick enough to lock in profits when they arise.
Have a good trading day. If there are any significant developments, shall keep readers updated.
Kenneth
Was late and i was eager to set my long into eurusd without proper confirmation and you guessed it i got stop. So lesson learned. Wait for at least hourly trend to be into your direction prior taking the trade... My box trade is going very well..
Hi, Guys:
I was monitoring more on Nikkei , Hang Seng and our Malaysian stock markets the whole day and saw them plunging.
The Nikkei dropped 755 points and Hang Seng 328 points, both 3% down. And the China market dropped 5% or 176 points.
FTSE and DAX also fell in unison.
The reasons given for the fall in world markets was weak US Consumer Confidence.'
Fundamentally and Technically, it is likely that Dow will fall tonight in tandem with world markets.
On Sat: I wrote an article in this forum on the effects of a fall in world stock markets and world economies on their currencies.
And we also highlighted that the Weekly EW charts show (1) that the current uptrend is only a CORRECTIVE Uptrend and not a bull market. (2) that the signs are showing in both the Weekly and Daily charts that the stock markets are at the tailend of their uptrrend.
And the Weekly charts also showed the same story for EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY and GBPUSD.
Imp;act on Currencies: The Euro went down against the US Dollar and so did the Pound against the Dollar, and the US Dollar went down against the Yen.
In my morning's posting, I intended to go long on GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURUSD and GBPJPY against my own findings as I was playing a game based on the Theory of Statistical Odds and I waited for quotes to fall but because of what I saw in world equity markets, I refrained from entering the forex market. I was "saved" by the fact that I always look at the stock markets first, then only the forex market (not the other way round.)
When the forex markets close today and after I have updated the charts, we will be able to see how the Wave Strutctures have changed (if any).
Tomorrow's EW charts will be interesting.
Kenneth
Was late and i was eager to set my long into eurusd without proper confirmation and you guessed it i got stop. So lesson learned. Wait for at least hourly trend to be into your direction prior taking the trade... My box trade is going very well..
Using your 1-hr analysis chart, in the Minuette time frame, it was a Buy on the EURUSD - and that was a correct interpretation.
However, based on the "Subminuette" time frame, it was a SELL signal with a Down trend.
In other words, if we analyze EW charts into such minor waves, one would normally play the bottom signal first and as it completes its wave, then you move on to the higher time frame.
Once the Subminuette wave completes its cycle, it will go into the Minuette, then the Buy goes into play.
Kenneth
You are right. All waves need to be on same side in order to take the trade. I took the risk and was ok with it. Now all exits at 4045. So i am long again for a low risk trade. Heavy storm here... Will chat later.
Here eur usd hourly update.
elwaveeurusd.bmp
You are right. All waves need to be on same side in order to take the trade. I took the risk and was ok with it. Now all exits at 4045. So i am long again for a low risk trade. Heavy storm here... Will chat later.
Here eur usd hourly update.
elwaveeurusd.bmpGreatYves, you have to be careful on the EURUSD as the Subminuette wave still shows a Negative and a Downtrend. In fact, I am doing a SELL on this currency pair for the short term.
Regards
Kenneth
Morning, Guys:
Yesterday All forecastors who gave Buy signals on EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY turned out to be wrong.
Headlines in CNBC website this morning EST 6:15 AM
Quote:
The Dow plunged 186 points ie 2% as I foresaw last night that it will fall in tandem with the Asian and European markets.
Four signs that today's Selloff could be the start of a Correction.
Oil settles below $67 on Recovery Jitters
Unquote.
Three things are clear. (1) Economic recovery will NOT be so soon despite all the economic measures that have been taken so far. (2) Consumer Confidence is lacking which in turn is translated as consumers are not inclined to spend and (3) it is likely to be the start of a Correction to world stock markets which have been mentioned in our postings that the equity markets are at the tailend of their uptrends.
My interpretation in practical terms will then be Investors will be risk averse and with falling stock markets will be accompanied by a fall in their respective currencies against their sparring partners ie the EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, GBPJPY and USDJPY. (The US dollar will also not be spared against the Yen.)
Elliott Wave-wise, these currencies will continue to go DOWN, and I am going to SHORT the above currencies – all 5 of them.
My EW software still has the Trojan Horse – have not been able to remove them despite the Avast and Malwarebyte 's help. I may have to reformat my laptop when I find the time.
So I have to resort to MANUAL wave counting on the MT4 charts using the Daily time frame.
EURUSD: is in a Corrrective A/B/C phase with wave B already completed. It is now on its way gto wave C.
EURJPY: is in a more complex Corrective phase and is on its way down to Wave B.
GBPUSD is on its way to a Corrective Wave C and it looks like it can turn out to be also in a complex Corrective mood.
GBPJPY has completed its Wave 4 contra-trend and is now on the first leg of its down path.
USDJPY is on its downward path to a Wave 2. Although it has just completed a Major Wave (5), the Get software showed it was in its new cycle of an uptrend, I suspect from my observation of the chart pattern, it can turn out to be a Complex Corrective phase. The resistance lines which I have drawn need to be broken convincingly to confirm it is in a Primary uptrend.
I shall keep readers informed of any important developments where time permits. Seems there is a string of economic news coming out today, but the overall market sentiment is not that strong to push these currency pairs up in view of yesterday's sharp falls in world equity markets.
Sorry, guys, attach the wrong doc file. Shall attach again the correct file.
Kenneth
Wrong doc file attached earlier
Here is the correct EW chart file in doc format.
My apologies.
Kenneth