My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 17
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coool -- graphic comparison please
easier for us to read
I thought it will be helpful to compare last Friday's EW charts against those of one week ago to see changes in direction and wave structures for the 9 currency pairs.
AUDUSD: On Aug 1, it was displaying a Primary Bull Wave 5, whereas Aug 8 chart shows it is now Primary Bear Wave 4
Advice: Be cautious – better stay away.
EURGBP: On Aug 1, it was displaying a Primary Bull Wave 3 was in formation, whereas Aug 8 chart shows it is now in a COMPLEX CORRECT PHASE – A, B, C, and A, B, C.
Advice: Stay Aside until this phase is completed.
EURUSD: Aug 1 displayed Primary Bull Wave 5 was completed, whereas Aug 8 show Wave 5 has now been EXTENDED with the last 2 days having two BLACK CANDLESTICKS.
Advice: This currency pair is still Bullish despite the appearance of the last 2 black candlesticks, and I do not think Bull Wave 5 is over yet.
EURJPY: No changes. Both Aug 1 and Aug 8 showed it is in Primary Bull Wave 3. Aug 8 showed Wave 3 is quite well defined, and should be able to trend upwards.
Advice: Bullish – tradeable.
GBPUSD Aug 1 showed Primary Bull Wave 5 in formation whereas Aug 8 shows Wave 5 label has appeared with the last 2 days having two Black Candlesticks. Again, I do not think the Bull Wave 5 is over yet.
Advice: This currency pair is in its Bullish Wave 5 despite the last 2 black candlesticks.
GBPJPY: Aug 1 showed it was Primary Bearish Wave 4. No change in status in Aug 8 – still showing Wave 4 Correction EXCEPT the OSCILLATOR has now crossed over to the positive (up).
Advice: I suspect the Wave 4 Label may be undergoing a subtle change which has not surfaced yet – it can turn out to be a Primary Bull Wave 3 or 5. So stay aside until the signs are clearer.
USDJPY: This is interesting. Aug 1 showed it was in Primary Bear Wave 4 and Wave 5 bear was in formation, whereas Aug 8 now shows it is in a Primary Bull trend, having completed its Corrective Wave 4 and Wave 5 is in formation with a PTI showing 34 (indicating the Wave 5 rally can be quite strong).
Advice: Bullish – tradeable.
USDCAD: No changes in both Aug 1 and Aug 8 EW charts. It still remains as Primary Bear Wave 5.
Advice: It can be in the tailend of Wave 5 – no further shorts to be done.
USDCHF: The Wave Structure for this currency pair has changed. Aug 1 showed it was Primary Wave 5 in information. Aug 8 showed Primary Bear Wave 5 is completed.
Advice: Step aside
------------------------
PRIMARY BULL TREND:
EURJPY Wave 3
EURUSD Wave 5
GBPUSD Wave 5
USDJPY Wave 5
PRIMARY BEAR TREND:
AUDUSD Wave 4
GBPJPY Wave 4
USDCAD Wave 5
USDCHF Wave 5
CORRECTIVE Phase:
EURGBP In Wave A/B/C
EW Charts: Aug 1 EW charts are found in my Posting #132
Aug 8 EW charts are found in my Posting #159
It will be repetitive to post the same charts again, as they can be readily found in this thread.
Kenneth
Well done Kenneth
I follow on 3 pairs namely EURUSD,GBPUSD and GBPJPY but your opinionn sits well with mine.
To other folks please do not forget that nothings goes straight up or straight down only, one must use proper money management
Kenneth, I want to assure you that many folks read your inteligent and straight to the point comentanries,your hard work helps many to gain a little more insight into the world of forex.
I wish you a sucessfull week of trading .
Best regards,
Daniel
Morning, Guys:
It has been a busy weekend for us all, updating ourselves as to what happened during last week and what is likely to happen today and this week. There is so much to read – economic news, charts and then doing our own technical analysis – drawing triangles, pennants, support and resistance lines, trendlines, bla, bla, bla. It was also enjoyable to do all these, as our passion for it grows. We just want to take the challenge of unruffling the puzzle and mystery of the forex world.
Last week's events and headlines are now past, but their effects have left an impact on many of our 9 currency pairs to the extent that some of our favorite currency pairs have their Wave Structures changed for better or for worse.
TODAY, I want to focus on those currency pairs which display PRIMARY BULLISH TREND and BUY LONG – (1) EURUSD, (2) EURJPY, (3) GBPUSD and (4) USDJPY
My first preference is for Primary Wave 3 currency pairs whose wave is already formed and well defined. EURJPY looks like a good bet.
My second preference is for USDJPY with Wave 5 Up in its early formation. Friday's daily bar has penetrated the Wave 4 price channel – upper boundary decisively and is on its way to the target of Fibonacci Ratio of 1.00;
The third choice is EURUSD as it is still enjoying its Wave 5 Up extension, and the last choice is GBPUSD.
This is only a line of preferences, and it is difficult to say who will turn out to be the winner(s).
Trading Strategy:
1. I am ging to go long on all 4 of them, as my funds permit me to do so.
2. I am going for the maximum 24 hours play – to let the market run its full course.
3. My Stop Loss will be 100 pips per currency pair, so that in the event it turns out to be my unlucky day, then I am prepared to lose 400 pips for the day.
4. Behind this strategy, I am applying the Theory of Statistical Odds to my trading. In my favor is the fact that all these 4 currency pairs are in their Primary Bull trend, and it is unlikely that all of them will close down – I hope not. hehehe. (In any case, I am prepared for the worst scenario of losing 400 pips). Very likely I will end up with 2 currency pairs Up and 2 currency pairs Down. And with a Risk/Reward Ratio of 2:1, it will end up positively.
So, let's see how the element of chance works out today. I am NOT advocating that you do the same.
My 4 orders have already been executed as follows:
EURUSD – 1.4186
EURJPY - 138.66
GBPUSD – 1.6679
USDJPY - 97.76
ATTACHED are the EW charts for these 4 currency pairs. As usual, I shall keep readers updated as and when there are interesting developments.
Have a good trading day.
Regards
Kenneth
Update No.1 Tracking EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY
With no major economic announcements, the day becomes a boring day. Boring days without any excitements are good days to have a siesta now and then.
At the time of writing, I am down by about 135 pips. Only EURUSD went up by 10 pips, the other 3 currency pairs fell.
None of my Stop Losses have been triggered yet. So, I just leave things as they are.
Kenneth
In the same bath as you. Got stop on eurusd and gbp usd, will check later for new trades.
Morning, Guys:
Today I am attaching the EW charts for ALL the 9 Currency Pairs together with some comments on them.
Note the changes that have now occurred since yesterday's closing.
Starting from today, I shall try to provide readers every day ALL THE 9 CURRENCY PAIRS for you to choose which ones you want to trade. As this takes a bit of time to prepare the EW charts, they will be posted around 8:30 to 9:00 am (EST).
At the same, I shall give my preferences and my “betting” method.
My Preferences: I still prefer (1) EURJPY which is displaying a strong PTI of 55 and (2) USDJPY which I still maintain is having its Wave 5 in formation.
Betting Method: For my 4 bets yesterday, 2 of them have their SL triggered, leaving a balance of 2 currency pairs remaining. I will not close them yet.
On the other hand, I have added 2 further BUYS – one for EURJPY and one for USDJPY.
In total, I will have 4 positions open. At worst, all 4 of them will lose – then it is bad luck for me. Very Likely, I shall have 2 winners and 2 losers – STATISTICALLY.
I am playing a game of statistical odds, using the Theory of Statistical Odds – the element of chance. I shall (where the EW charts permit) have 4 trades. (I shall share this theory with you when I have compiled my statistical tables which is going to take me quite some time – probably 3-4 weeks or even more ). This theory (you would not find it in internet) is different from the Theory of Runs.
Good trading to you, guys.
Regards
Kenneth
Alternate view.
Here a weekly of GBP USD. We see nice pin bar clompleting wave 4 up, Would now be in beginning of bearish wave 5. If we admit that weekly is boss to the daily, maybe time to start beeing US bullish.
gu081009.bmp
Here a weekly of GBP USD. We see nice pin bar clompleting wave 4 up, Would now be in beginning of bearish wave 5. If we admit that weekly is boss to the daily, maybe time to start beeing US bullish. gu081009.bmp
You are correct in your analysis, GreatYves.
I am also attaching herewith the Weekly EW chart for GBPUSD with some comments on it.
Its Wave 4/C has passed the Fibonacci Ratio of 1.618, signalling it is in the tailend of Wave 4. To SHORT, I prefer to wait for bar to go below the 10period MA, confirming that the bearish trend is established. Another thing - look for the stochastic to hook down, then we have another confirmation sign that the bear is in control. Remember Martin Pring's "weight of evidence".
On the other hand, the Daily chart showed the last bar has gone BELOW its 10 day MA, meaning the downtrend has started.
Strategic-wise. You can start SHORTING now and later when the Weekly Chart confirms it, you can SHORT further.
I am very happy, GreatYves, that you have joined in with your analysis. Good evaluation. At least, not only I have a partner in trading but also a partner in evaluation as well.
There are times when I have also overlooked some aspects of the chart, and it is good that readers can chip in to highlight.
Thanks
Kenneth
Elliot Waves is an Art. And 2 heads not to much for analysis. I am glad you appreciate my view.
I am trading mostly with a 10 period JMA envellope on MTF.
Right now i set up 3 sub account on Oanda Fxgame Demo. One is for Daily trading. One is for sunday 4hr box set and forget trading (see method here)
And also doing some scalping over eur-usd tick chart when i am bored.
We can see on this daily chart the trend is now down on the daily but still up on the boss weekly trend.