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AceTraderFx Jan 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/CHF)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jan 2015 6:15GMT
USD/CHF -...... Both dlr/chf & eur/chf rallied sharply in Monday session, traders cited part of the reason was on a large increase in the SNB's sight deposits.
Bloomberg reported sight deposits at the SNB increased nearly 8% last week, suggesting the central bank continued to buy foreign currency after it abandoned its cap on the franc.
Sight deposits of domestic banks increased to 365.5 bln francs in the week ending January 23 from 339.6 bln francs a week earlier, data published on the SNB's website Monday showed.
Today SNB's Vice Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine, (he said 2 week ago on Monday the central bank would maintain the peg but 3 days later, SNB unpegged the franc cap) he said in an interview on Tuesday the SNB is ready to intervene in the foreign currency market to ease monetary policy after ditching its cap on the Swiss franc earlier this month.
Dantine told Swiss national daily TagesAnzeiger "Giving up the cap means a tightening of monetary policy. We accept this, but only up to a point. We are fundamentally prepared to intervene in the FX market."
He then said it would take some time for the FX markets to balance out, but declined to give exact levels, saying the central bank was not only looking at the exchange rate with the euro but also with the dollar.
AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Jan 2015 23:52GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
118.28
55 HR EMA
118.13
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
64
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
119.96 - Jan 8 high
119.32 - Last Mon's high
118.87 - Last Tue's high
Support
118.08 - Hourly chart
117.83 - Y'day's Asian moring high, now sup
117.18 - Last Wed's low
. USD/JPY - 118.56... Although active cross-buying in yen pressured dlr to 117.27 ahead of Asian open on Mon, renewed weakness in yen vs other currencies lifted price n dlr rallied to 118.48 in NY morning. Later, dlr briefly retreated to 118.13 n then climbed to session high of 118.50 at NY close.
. Let's look at the bigger picture, as mentioned in recent update, dlr's volatile price action fm Dec's 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 115.57, subsequent bounce to 120.83 marked the b-leg top, then the decline to Jan's low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom, last week's rise to 118.87 (Tue) signalled d-leg rise was in progress which shud falter below 120.83 n yield an e-leg fall in Feb. On the downside, only below key sup at 115.57 wud invalidate abv triangle scenario n yield correction of the LT uptrend fm 75.32 (2011 record low) to 114.55 n possibly twd 113.52 next month.
. Today, dlr's strg rebound fm said y'day's low at 117.27 suggests as long as minor sup at 118.08 hold, intra-day upside bias remains for gain twd 118.87 res, break there wud confirm abovementioned triangle d-leg upmove has resumed n shud yield gain to 119.32/37. Therefore, buying dlr again on dips is favoured.
AceTraderFx Jan 28: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jan 2015 02:13GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Despite yesterday's rally to 1.1424 due to active short-covering, renewed selling there knocked price lower to 1.1333 in NY and then 1.1331 today.
Offers are tipped at 1.1390-00 and more at 1.1420-25.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.1310-00 with stops seen below 1.1290.
According to Lars Loekke Rasmussen, the 50-year-old leader of Denmark opposition and the man who polls consistently show will become prime minister after elections due to take place by September. He said there's no point setting a date for a referendum on swapping Denmark's currency peg for full euro membership.
Yesterday despite the release of upbeat U.S. consumer confi., broad-based strength in European currencies pushed euro higher and price extended intra-day rally from 1.1224 (Asia) to 1.1422 in NY morning before easing due to some profit-taking.
Wednesdaywill see the release of Australia's Westpac leading index, CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, Switzerland UBS Consumption indicator, Germany's Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Import Price index, France's Consumer Confidence, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement.
AceTraderFx Jan 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jan 2015 02:43GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable pares yesterday's rally to a 1-week high of 1.5223 in NY session n retreated from 1.5196 (AUS) to 1.5155 in Asian morning as lack of follow-through buying has led to long liquidation in the pound.
Trading in Tuesday's session was tricky as cable briefly tanked from European morning high of 1.5117 to 1.5060 after U.K. prelim. Q4 GDP came in below street forecast.
However, intra-day rally in eur/usd ahead of NY open triggered broad-based short-covering in sterling and intra-day gain accelerated once stops above 1.5120 were tripped, cable rallied strongly to 1.5223 after tripping more stops on the way up.
Intra-day retreat suggests 1.5223 top would hold from here as offers are tipped at 1.5185/95 and more above with some stops touted above 1.5230. Some bids are noted at 1.5150-40 and more at 1.5120-00 area with stops below there.
As no U.K. data are due out today, cable is expected to track intra-day swings in eur/usd.
With the Greek election over, market attention is turning to the U.K. general election which is now 99 days away.
On Tue PM David Cameron's Conservatives took the lead in 3 polls, while opposition leader Ed Miliband returned his campaign focus to the National Health Service.
ComRes Ltd. and Survation both put the Tories at 31% support and Labour at 30% , and YouGov gave the Conservatives the edge with 34% to 33%, suggesting the race to the May 7 vote remains on a knife edge. Labour had a lead of as much as 10 points a year ago.
The likeliest outcome of the election remains another hung Parliament, in which no party has an overall majority.
If neither big party were able to form a functioning gov't, that would raise the prospect of a 2nd election within a few months, for the first time since 1974.
Adding to the uncertainty that has rattled investors is Cameron's pledge of a referendum on staying in the EU if he's re-elected.
AceTraderFx Jan 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/SGD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jan 2015 03:37GMT
USD/SGD - ....... Singapore MAS spokesperson says central bank's main policy cycle remains as scheduled in April and October each year; central bank has always maintained flexibility to conduct off-cycle policy reviews, will do so when needed; their next monetary policy review will be as scheduled in April; "barring significant shocks", 2015 inflation, growth forecasts would likely be reaffirmed at April review.
Earlier the sing dlr fell the most since 2010 in early Asian trading after the MAS surprised the market by easing its monetary policy, dlr sing jumped from 1.3392 to as high as 1.3570 (a fresh 4-year peak).
Bloomberg reported the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the currency as its main policy tool, said it will reduce the slope of the policy band for the island's dollar in an unscheduled policy statement Wed. It also cut the inflation forecast for 2015, predicting prices may fall as much as 0.5%.
Singapore becomes at least the 9th economy to ease policy this month as global price pressures evaporate with an oil slump, after the ECB announced QE plans while Canada, Denmark n India cut interest rates. More may come -- the BoJ chief said the country may need to get creative in any further monetary stimulus and Thai policy makers face growing pressure to lower borrowing costs.
AceTraderFx Jan 29: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jan 2015 01:27GMT
USD/JPY - ........ Although the greenback briefly dropped to 117.27 in NZ/AUS due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index futures following the sell off in U.S. stock markets after Fed kept interest rate unchanged as expected, short-covering lifted the pair in Tokyo morning.
Bids are now located at 117.60-50 and more at 117.30 with stops building up below 117.10.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 117.90-00 and more at 118.20-25.
The Fed acknowledged global risks in its statement Wednesday, saying that it will take into account readings on "international developments" as it decides how long to keep key rates near zero.
Policy makers said inflation will probably slow further. U.S. oil supplies climbed to their highest level in data going back more than 30 years, exacerbating concerns over a global supply glut.
The Fed also said it's confronting divergent economic forces as it weighs the timing of the first U.S. rate increase since 2006.
Surprisingly strong job gains argue for tightening sooner, while inflation held down by a plunge in oil prices and a cooling global economy provides grounds for delay.
In other news, Chinese regulators plan to start a new round of checks on the margin lending businesses of brokerages as soon as this week, people familiar with the situation said.
On the data front, Japanese retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, slid 0.3% from November for a third straight monthly decline, the trade ministry said Thursday in Tokyo.
Earlier Japan PM Abe said peace, stability of Middle East important for Japan's energy strategy, while Japan will not give in to terrorism, it will continue to cooperate closely with international community.
Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Japan's Retail Sales, Australia's CB leading indicator, Exports, Imports, France's Consumer Spending, Germany's Unemployment rate, unemployment change, CPI, HICP, Italy's Wage Inflation, euro zone's Business Climate, Consumer Inflation Expectation, Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Industrial Sentiment, Italy's Consumer Confidence, U.K.'s Nationwide House Prices, CBI Distributive Trades, U.S.'s Initial Jobless Claims, Pending home sales
AceTraderFx Jan 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jan 2015 07:00GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Comments from Japan BoJ's Kuroda, quote:
'prices rising in japan reflecting improvements in corporate revenues, wages;
QQE exerting intended effect on economy;
Japan prices continue to rise as a trend despite pressure from oil price falls;
Japan consumer inflation may fall due to oil price falls, but lower oil costs benefit economy;
inflation likely to accelerate in latter half of next fiscal year, hit 2% in period centering fiscal 2015;
no change to our monetary policy stance, which is to aim for 2% inflation in roughly two years;
what is important is to look not just at prices of individual goods but also medium- to long-term trend of inflation;
Japan's output gap has narrowed near zero, companies signalling eagerness to raise wages;
no change to factors that determine price trend, including output gap n inflation expectations;
have been saying since April 2013 that 2% inflation will be achieved at period centering fiscal 2015;
timing of Japan hitting 2% inflation may change somewhat depending on oil price moves.'
AceTraderFx Jan 30: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Jan 2015 01:33GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Reuters reported earlier Japan's core consumer inflation slowed for a 5th straight month in December hit by collapsing oil prices, keeping the central bank under pressure to meet its ambitious 2% inflation target.
But factory output rose 1.0% in December helped by a much-awaited rebound in exports n manufacturers expect to increase production in January, boding well for an economy emerging from recession.
The pick-up in output backs up the BoJ's argument that a solid economic recovery will help accelerate inflation toward its target early next year, although oil price falls will continue to weigh on inflation in the short run.
The gov't raised its assessment on output to say it is "picking up moderately." In the previous month, it said output was flat.
Japan's economy slipped into recession in the 3rd quarter of last year as exports failed to pick up n last Apr's sales tax hike cooled consumer spending.
Analysts expect the economy to have expanded an annualised 3.2% in Oct-Dec as the tax-hike pain subsides, a Reuters poll showed.
In a sign the recovery will be fragile, however, household spending fell 3.4% in the year to December, separate data showed on Friday, more than a median market forecast.
Yesterday despite dlr's brief bounce from 117.88 to 117.16 in NY morning after the release of lower-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, selling interest below European high of 117.18 capped such gain there n price later retreated to 117.83.
The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending January 24 decreased by 43K to a seasonally adjusted 265K from the previous week's total of 308K. Market had expected U.S. initial jobless claims to decline by 8K to 300K last week.
Friday will see the release of Japan's Unemployment Rate, All Household Spending, CPI, Industrial output, Construction orders, Housing Starts, Australia's PPI, France's Producer Prices, KOF indicator, Italy's Unemployment Rate, Producer Prices, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Approvals, euro zone's Unemployment Rate, Inflation ex Food & Energy, Canada's GDP, U.S. PCE, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major (EUR/USD)
Update Time: 30 Jan 2015 09:37 GMT
DAILY OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD - 1.1310
Although euro has staged a strong rebound from 1.1262 to 1.1368, as long as 1.1383 res holds, another leg of decline from Tuesday's high of 1.1423 to retrace corrective rise from Monday's 11-yr low at 1.1098 would take place and yield re-test of said sup, below, 1.1224.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, break would signal pullback from 1.1423 is over, 1.1423.
AceTraderFx Feb 2: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2015 01:48GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite early gap-down opening to an intra-day low at 116.69 (Reuters) due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index following the sell off in global stock markets (Dow Jones index closed down 252 points or 1.45% to 17165), the greenback rebounded on short-covering in part due to the release of slightly better-than-expected Japan's manufacturing PMI which came in at 52.2 versus previous reading of 52.1.
Bids are now located at 117.20 and 117.10-05 with stops seen at 117.00.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 117.60-65 and more at 117.80.
Dlr gapped lower at NZ open to a 2-week low of 116.69 (Reuters) with some traders cited the initial sell off on downbeat China mfg & services PMIs released on Sun.
Reuters reported China's factory sector unexpectedly shrank for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years in Jan n firms see more gloom ahead, an official survey showed, raising expectations that policymakers will take more action to forestall a sharper slowdown.
The official PMI fell to 49.8 in Jan, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sun, a low last seen in Sept 2012 n a whisker below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
The Dec level was 50.1, n a Reuters poll saw a better result, 50.2 for Jan. Only one of 11 economists in the poll predicted a Jan contraction. In addition, China's services PMI also fell to a 1-year low in Jan at 53.7 from Dec's reading of 54.1.
Data to be release this week:
Japan's Manufacturing PMI, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland's Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI, euro zone Manufacturing PMI, UK's Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, U.S.'s PCE Price index, Personal consumption, Personal Spending, Markit Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Canada RBC Manufacturing PMI on Monday.
Australia Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Bulling Approvals, RBA rate decision and monetary policy statement, Switzerland's Trade Balance, UK's Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, Italy's CPI, euro zone Producer Prices, Canada Producer Prices, U.S> Redbook, Factory orders on Tuesday.
New Zealand's HLFS Job Growth, HLFS Unemployment rate, Labour Cost Index, China HSBC Service PMI, Italy's Markit/ADACI Service PMI, France's Markit Service PMI, Germany Markit Service PMI, euro zone's Markit Service PMI, Retail Sales, U.S. ADP National Employment, Markit Service PMI, ISM non-Manufacturing PMI, Canada Ivey PMI on Wednesday.
Australia's HIA New Home Sales, Retail Sales, Switzerland's Consumer Confidence, Germany's Industrial Orders, UK's BoE rate decision and QE Total, U.S.'s International Trade, Labour Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Canada Trade Balance, Exports, Imports on Thursday.
Japan's Coincident Indicator, Leading Indicator, Germany's Industrial Output, France Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Switzerland's Retail Sales, UK's trade Balance, U.S.'s Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payroll, Canada's Unemployment rate, Unemployment Change, Building Permits on Friday.