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AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 Sep 2014 23:55GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
108.63
55 HR EMA
108.18
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
66
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
110.67 - Aug 15 2008 high
109.52 - 2 times ext. of 101.51-104.49 fm 103.56
109.08 - Sep 08 2008 high
Support
108.50 - Thur's European low
108.14 - 38.2% r of 106.81-108.96
107.88 - 50% of 106.81-108.96
. USD/JPY - 108.82 ... The greenback maintained a firm undertone on Thur following Wed's rally due to broad-based gain in global stocks. Dlr rose to a fresh 6-year peak of 108.96 in New York after weekly U.S. jobless claims came in lower than market forecast, however, offers at 109.00 capped intra-day gain.
. Dlr's firmness after rallying to 108.96 suggests the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Nov) wud resume after consolidation n marginal gain abv next daily chart obj. at 109.08 (Sep 08 2008 high) is now envisaged, however,high readings on daily oscillators n 'bearish divergences' on hourly indicators shud prevent strg gain abv there n reckon 109.52, being 2 times extension of MT intermediate rise fm 101.51-104.49 measured fm 103.56, shud cap upside n yield a long-overdue minor correction. Looking ahead, dlr is en route to 2008 peak at 110.67. On the downside, only a daily close below 107.40 wud signal a temporary top is in place n risk stronger retrace. to 106.81 sup.
. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr again on dips in anticipation of further rise is the way to go as only below 108.00 wud confirm a temporary is in place n risks stronger retracement twd 107.40 next week.
AceTraderFx Sept 22: Daily Outlook on Major EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD- 1.2848
Update Time: 22 Sep 2014 00:54 GMT
Euro's sell off to a fresh 14-month trough of 1.2829 Friday and then marginally to 1.2826 in Australia today signals mid-term downtrend from May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed and further weakness to 1.2772 would be seen after consolidation.
However, 'loss of momentum' should keep price above 1.2745 today and risk correction later.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.2831 (last Thursday's high) would abort daily bearishness and yield stronger gain to 1.2880/90.
AceTraderFx Sept 22: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
22 Sep 2014 02:58GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Statement from OECD's Tamaki:
'up to BoJ Kuroda to decide whether to deploy additional monetary easing;
BoJ should commit as early as possible to maintain monetary easing beyond next spring;
don't want Japan to resort to big fiscal stimulus to cushion next sales tax hike's impact given the state of public finances.'
'will be hard to achieve BoJ's 2% inflation target next spring;
BoJ should make new monetary policy commitment beyond 2015 to achieve 2% inflation target;
Japan must proceed with fiscal consolidation by implementing sales tax hike next year;
Japan shud resort to near-term stimulus to mitigate downward pressure next sales tax hike.'
On Friday closing, Despite dlr's brief retreat from intra-day fresh 6-year peak of 109.46 (Asia) to 108.59, renewed buying there lifted the pair. More bids are located at 108.50 (sizeable). On the upside, some offers are tipped at 109.15-20.
This week will see the release of Italy's industrial orders and sales, U.S. existing home sales and eurozone consumer confidence on Monday;
China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit service PMI, U.K. PSNB and PSNCR, Canada's retail sales, U.S. Redbook and Markit manufacturing PMI on Tuesday;
New Zealand's exports, imports and trade balance, Japan's Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss ubs consumption indicator, German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, U.S. new home sales on Wednesday;
U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. building permits, durable goods and Markit services PMI on Thursday;
Japan's CPI Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, France's consumer confidence, U.S. core PCE, GDP in Q2, University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx Sept 22: Intra-Day News & Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
22 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - ...... Despite cable's retreat after intra-day rebound from 1.6288 (Aust.) to 1.6365 in Asia morning, price found support at 1.6334 shortly after European open due to renewed cross-buying in sterling vs euro n yen.
Buying interest is seen at 1.6330-20 with demand fm various accounts noted at 1.6305/00. On the upside, Offers are noted at 1.6365/70 n then 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10.
Last Friday Cable swung wildly n to a lesser extent in today, Monday's trading.
Despite an initial rally to 1.6525 in Asia, price tumbled to as low as 1.6284 near NY close on long liquidation as investors locked in gains after more voters in Scotland's independence referendum elected to remain inside the United Kingdom. Price briefly rebounded to 1.6340 in Mon's NZ n then retreated to 1.6385 b4 climbing back to 1.6364 in Tokyo lunch session.
With the referendum issue out of the way, investors are turning their attention back towards the Bank of England's monetary policy stance n therefore, choppy range trading inside 1.6300-1.6400 is expected today.
Offers are noted at 1.6360-70 n around 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10. On the downside, bids are located at 1.6285-80 with stops below there.
On Sunday, U.K. PM David Cameron's office said:
'Scotland will get more autonomy with no "ifs or buts"', after Scottish leader Alex Salmond accused him and other politicians of tricking Scots out of independence.
'It is the people who were persuaded to vote "No" who were misled, who were gulled, who were tricked effectively,' Salmond told BBC TV, saying he thought last-minute promises of greater powers and continued higher-than-average funding, which he said were already unravelling, had swayed the vote's outcome.
Cameron's office responded by saying the government would stick to its promises. Miliband, leader of the Labour party, said on Sun he disagreed with the proposals because he thought more time and consultation was needed to work out a solution to 'the English question' accusing his rival of playing politics.
He told BBC 'You know we've spent two years trying to keep our country together. Let's have a proper constitutional convention, let's look at these issues; Let's not drive our country apart because David Cameron thinks it's a sort of opportunity for him to do it.'
AceTraderFx Sept 23: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
23 Sep 2014 02:20GMT
USD/JPY - 108.78.. Although dlr remained under pressure at Asian open following o/n weakness in NY session as decline in the Dow (down 107 points) triggered broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion.
The pair briefly penetrated NY low of 108.74 n fell to intra-day low of 108.60, however, release of stronger-than-expected China HSBC flash mfg PMI (Sep came in at 50.5 vs forecast of 50.0) boosted risk sentiment n lifted price to 108.81.
Range trading is expected in quiet Asian morning session as financial markets in Japan are closed for Autumn Equinox holiday.Bids are reported at 108.65-55 with stops touted below 108.50.
Offers are noted at 109.00/10 n more abv with stops abv 109.20. However, more selling interest is reported near last Fri's fresh 6-year peak at 109.46.
In an interview at a Bloomberg's eco. forum in NY on Mon, NY Fed President William Dudley said a sharply stronger dollar could hamper Fed efforts to spur growth n lift inflation.
Tuesdaywill see the release of China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit service PMI, U.K. PSNB and PSNCR, Canada's retail sales, U.S. Redbook and Markit manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 22 Sep 2014 23:59GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.6351
55 HR EMA
1.6347
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
61
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Initial rise b4 strg retreat
Resistance
1.6481 - Last Fri's European high
1.6433 - 61.8% r of 1.6525-1.6284
1.6403 - Hourly chart
Support
1.6322 - Y'day's low
1.6284 - Last Fri's NY low
1.6247 - Last Thur's low (AUS)
. GBP/USD- 1.6371 ... The British pound tracked euro's movement closely on Mon. Despite initial weakness to 1.6287 in NZ, cable rebounded after holding abv last Fri's 1.6584 low to 1.6666 in European morning. Despite a retreat to 0.6322, cable climbed to 1.6369 near NY close, then 1.6373 ahead of Asian open.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, y'day's rebound suggests the strg retreat fm last Fri's high at 1.6525 to 1.6284 has formed a temporary low there 1-2 days of choppy consolidation wud be seen with mild upside bias. Although further gain to 1.6403/05 (being hourly res n 50% r of 1.6525-1.6284 respectively) cannot be ruled out, reckon 'dynamic' res at 1.6433 (61.8% r) wud cap upside n yield another decline later. Looking ahead, although cable's strg rebound fm Sep's near 10-month trough at 1.6052 confirmed MT fall fm Jul's near 6-year peak at 1.7192 has made a temporary low, last Fri's sell off signals at least the leg of correction is over n weakness to 1.6233 (61.8% r) is expected, below, 1.6052.
. Today, cable's intra-day firmness due partly to cross-buying in sterling wud extend marginal gain, indicated res 1.6403/05 shud cap upside n yield subsequent decline. Selling on up move for weakness twd 1.6322 is therefore favoured.
AceTraderFx Sept 24: Intra-Day News & Views (AUD/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
24 Sep 2014 01:31GMT
AUD/USD -..... RBA releases Financial Stability Review:
'discussing with apra further steps to strengthen bank lending standards;
APRA has already intensified supervision of mortgage lending;
composition of housing and mortgage market becoming "unbalanced";
bank competition driving strong rise in loans for housing investment;
speculative demand could amplify house price cycle, risk eventual sharp reversal;
risks from housing cycle mostly macroeconomic, could become systemic if loan growth persists;
important that Australian banks do not loosen mortgage lending standards;
overall lending standards have not eased as yet, but still might not be conservative enough;
strong investor demand for commercial property driving up prices, but risks modest so far;
Australian bank profitability remains robust, capital ratios rising and bad debts falling;
shadow banking only small fraction of australian market, poses little systemic risk;
indicators point to low levels of financial stress in household sector;
business lending by foreign-owned banks in Australia expanding at a fast pace;
rising concerns about asset quality in china amid slower growth, softer house prices.'
Wednesdaywill see the release of New Zealand's exports, imports and trade balance, Japan's Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, U.S. new home sales.
AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Sep 2014 00:27GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.2857
55 HR EMA
1.2860
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
47
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.2982 - Last Wed's high
1.2931 - Last Thur's high
1.2901 - Y'day's high
Support
1.2816 - Mon's fresh 14-month low
1.2772 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3221-1.2860 fm 1.2995
1.2745 - Apr 04 2013 low
. EUR/USD- 1.2852... Despite Mon's selloff to a fresh 14-month low at 1.2816, euro ratcheted higher on active short-covering in Europe on Tue after release of slightly higher German service PMI, however, renewed selling at 1.2901 at London midday capped rebound n knocked price lower to 1.2845 in NY.
. Euro's rebound fm Mon's fresh 14-month low of 1.2816 to 1.2901 y'day suggests MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has made a minor bottom there, however, subsequent retreat to 1.2845, then 1.2840 today suggests as long as 1.2901 res holds, downside bias remains for MT decline fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace MT erratic upmove fm 1.2042 (2012 low) wud resume n extend marginal weakness to 1.2814 (50% projection of 1.3221-1.2860 measured fm 1.2995), however, as the hourly oscillators wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on such move, suggesting steep fall below there is unlikely n reckon 1.2772 (61.8% projection of 1.3221-1.2860 fm 1.2995) wud hold n yield a much needed
minor correction.
. Today, selling euro on recovery for one more is cautiously favoured n only abv 1.2901 wud risk stronger correction to chart obj/res at 1.2931.
AceTraderFx Sept 25: Intra-Day News & Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
25 Sep 2014 02:25GMT
USD/JPY- ....... Dlr ended up higher above 109.00 level yesterday as release of robust U.S. new home sales data triggered broad-based buying in greenback in NY n investors ignored the comments from Japan PM Abe who expressed concerns over the impact of a weak yen ahead of Wednesday's Tokyo open.
Despite dlr's retreat after climbing to 109.34 ahead of Tokyo open, intra-day near 200 points rally in the Nikkei should continue to boost risk sentiment and buying dlr on dips is still the way to go, however, sharp gain beyond last Friday's 6-year peak at 109.46 is not likely ahead of release of a slew of U.S. data in NY morning where are expected to come in weaker than previous readings.
Bids are noted in the region of 109.00-108.80 and then 108.60-50 with stops emerging below 108.30, whilst offers are placed at 109.45/50 and further out at 109.80-90 with stops located just above psychological barrier at 110.00.
U.S. will release durable goods, weekly jobless claims and Markit Service PMI today. Economists forecast durable goods orders to drop 18.0% in August after July's unusual 22.6% jump which mainly caused by a 317% spike in civilian aircraft n parts orders due to Boeing booking of a record 327 airplane orders.
For the weekly jobless claims and Markit Service PMI, market expects the number to climb to 299K a week ago and to drop to 59.0 in Sept from 59.5 in previous month respectively.
Thursday will see the release of U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. building permits, durable goods and Markit services PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 25: Euro falls to fresh 14-month low after weak German business ....
Market Review - 24/09/2014 22:38GMT
Euro falls to fresh 14-month low after weak German business confidence and Draghi's dovish comments
Despite euro's brief bounce to 1.2868 in European morning on Wednesday, the single currency ratcheted lower after weak Ifo German business confidence and ECB President Draghi's dovish remarks. Euro penetrated Mon's low at 1.2816 to a fresh 14-month trough at 1.2774 in New York morning due to dollar's broad-based strength on the rally in U.S. stocks before trading sideways.
Ifo economist Wohlrabe said 'expects to see a weak Q3 in Germany; expects economy to stagnate in Q3; still expects German GDP growth around 1.5% in 2014; reduced export expectations and weaker capital goods weighed on business sentiment.'
Reuters news reported European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said on Wednesday that euro zone monetary policy would remain accommodative for a long period and that the goal was to push ultra-low inflation back up closer to the two percent level.
"Monetary policy will remain accommodating for a long time and I can tell you that the (ECB) Governing Council is unanimous in committing itself to using the tools at its disposal to bring inflation back to just under two percent," Draghi said in an interview on French Europe 1 radio.
Although the greenback briefly dropped to 108.46 ahead of Tokyo open on Wednesday due to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly voiced concern about the economic impact of the currency's recent weakness, the greenback rebounded to 108.78 in Asia on the recovery in Japanese Nikkei-225 index. U.S. dollar later ratcheted higher to 109.15 against the the Japanese yen near New York close.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said she thinks the Fed should overhaul how it communicates its policy guidance, perhaps tying its statements about monetary policy to forecasts about economic performance. Mester said as the Fed ends its crisis-era policies it should also move away from the type of qualitative forward guidance it has used in recent years to statements that are more directly tied to economic projections. Mester said "I would like to see the forward guidance evolve over time to give more information about the conditions we systematically assess in calibrating the stance of policy to the economy's actual progress and anticipated progress." Mester repeated an earlier critique that she felt it was time for the Fed to drop as a key standing phrase that it would be a "considerable time," once a Fed bond buying program ends this fall, before interest rates are increased.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said at a Peterson Institute conference on labor market slack that 'the U.S. Federal Reserve should be "exceptionally patient" in removing monetary policy accommodation, even if doing so means allowing inflation to modestly overshoot the central bank's 2 percent goal.'
The British pound moved sideways in Asia on Wednesday and then briefly bounced to 1.6414 in Europe, however, selling interest below Tuesday's high at 1.6416 knocked price lower to 1.6327 in New York morning due to renewed dollar's strength elsewhere before trading narrowly later in the day.
Thursday will see the release of U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. building permits, durable goods and Markit services PMI.